When the Gpu's prices will go down ?

PeegeeTips · 3 Apr 2023 at 13:35

I'd simplify it:

1.)RX7900XTX 24GB - Navi 31(384 bit memory controller).
2.)RX7900XT 20GB - Navi 31(320 bit memory controller).
3.)RX7800XT 16GB - Navi 32(256 bit memory controller).
4.)RX7700XT 12GB - Navi 32(192 bit memory controller).
5.)RX7600XT 8GB - Navi 33.
6.)RX7600 8GB - Navi 33.

Zarax · 3 Apr 2023 at 13:40

CAT-THE-FIFTH said:
It could go that way,but the problem it tops out at 4096 shaders according to the rumours,unless they are wrong and it has far more shaders. Adding more memory controllers would be easy as Navi 32 is still a chiplet design AFAIK.

But I can't see how Navi 32,even running at higher clockspeeds,could beat a 4608 shader RX6800XT by a decent amount? Even if it ran at 3GHZ consistently,ie,about 35% more than an RX6800XT,it would barely be 20% to 25% faster overall(at best). In that sense it would make more sense to release a 4608 shader version of Navi 32 with a 256 bit memory controller.

The RX6800 only had 3840 shaders,so a fully enabled Navi 32 would have more shaders and a higher clockspeed. So it could be quite possible that a 256 bit memory bus is attached to a Navi 32 based RX7800. So if we went that way:
1.)RX7900XTX 24GB - Navi 31(384 bit memory controller).
2.)RX7900XT 20GB - Navi 31(320 bit memory controller).
3.)RX7800XT 16GB - Navi 31(256 bit memory controller).
4.)RX7800 16GB - Navi 32(256 bit memory controller).
5.)RX7700XT 12GB - Navi 32(192 bit memory controller).
6.)RX7700 10GB - Navi 32(160 bit memory controller).
7.)RX7600XT 8GB - Navi 33.
8.)RX7600 8GB - Navi 33.

If the RX7800XT ends up being a 4096 shader Navi 32,it will be a small generational increase. It could happen,but I hope it doesn't because it will be as bad as what Nvidia is doing now.

This is in line with what I expect as well.

Eddie99 · 3 Apr 2023 at 18:08

SpellowHouse said:
But then really I am not sure what NVIDIA's plan is. Are they being greedy or did they forsee the downturn and decide they had to charge more to keep things trundling along? Are these prices entirely aimed at miners who will pay more than gamers? Or maybe they have a longer term strategy to break scalpers?

GPU mining isn't profitable anymore so they're not aimed at miners. It could be that they think during a recession where a lot of budget gamers are struggling with the basics, lowering prices might not increase sales enough to make up for the lower profit margins. If they keep prices high and establish a new normal now, then in a couple of years when the next gen cards are out they can say 30% faster (or whatever it is) for the same money as a 40 series which looks a lot more appealing.

Joxeon · 3 Apr 2023 at 21:46

Eddie99 said:
GPU mining isn't profitable anymore so they're not aimed at miners. It could be that they think during a recession where a lot of budget gamers are struggling with the basics, lowering prices might not increase sales enough to make up for the lower profit margins. If they keep prices high and establish a new normal now, then in a couple of years when the next gen cards are out they can say say 30% faster (or whatever it is) for the same money as a 40 series which looks a lot more appealing.

The plan from Nvidia was to price them stupidly so people buy up the 3000 series backlog instead but if people are daft enough go and buy the 4000 series at the ridiculous prices then Nvidia wont have to lower them.

CuriousTomCat · 3 Apr 2023 at 23:39

Eddie99 said:
I did think seriously on my GPU purchase, problem is what is the alternative? I ended up selling my 30 series card last year when I got bored with gaming, the only other way to vote with my wallet was no gaming GPU at all, but I'd rather overpay by £200 than miss out on 2 years of PC gaming until the next gen cards come out.

This is exactly why GPUs are so expensive. People are voting with their wallets that they are happy to pay these prices. Nvidia listened and responded. I can't wait to see how much they charge next gen.

CAT-THE-FIFTH · 4 Apr 2023 at 15:18

Nvidia has massively cut down on TSMC orders:

https://twitter.com/SKundojjala/status/1640405109359378433

That means:
1.)The existing inventory problems are huge(was over $5 billion earlier in the year)
2.)They expect less sales of the new generation

Troezar · 4 Apr 2023 at 15:22

CAT-THE-FIFTH said:
Nvidia has massively cut down on TSMC orders:

https://twitter.com/SKundojjala/status/1640405109359378433

That means:
1.)The existing inventory problems are huge(was over $5 billion earlier in the year)
2.)They expect less sales of the new generation

They either have GPU's they don't want to lose money on or want sell for a premium. Either way if they aren't selling they will have to take less money for them or not sell them at all. As I see it they have milked the whales and now the "normal" people with a fixed budget will not buy unless the prices drop. Just a matter of time now before they realise the money is not out there to pay £500 for relatively low end GPU's.

CAT-THE-FIFTH · 4 Apr 2023 at 15:26

Troezar said:
They either have GPU's they don't want to lose money on or want sell for a premium. Either way if they aren't selling they will have to take less money for them or not sell them at all. As I see it they have milked the whales and now the "normal" people with a fixed budget will not buy unless the prices drop. Just a matter of time now before they realise the money is not out there to pay £500 for relatively low end GPU's.

IIRC,Nvidia tried to pass off their GPU sales boom and price rises during the pandemic as being mostly down to gaming demand(I might be wrong on this),so now that it's quite clear a lot of it was mining.So now they can't seem to be able to do an about-turn,and reduce pricing. So now they have a ton of volume they purchased for the previous generation and want to some how sell the RTX3000 series at RRP or higher. But the problem is they also booked volume on TSMC 4NM for the RTX4000 series. You can tell they are doing discounts on the RTX3000 series,but to system builders as I have seen prebuilt systems and laptops at decent discounts(cheaper than building a system from parts sourced individually).

It's telling AMD is actually increasing volume.

Troezar · 4 Apr 2023 at 15:36

I'd like to go back to an AMD GPU but at current prices my 3060Ti is good enough at 1440p.

CAT-THE-FIFTH · 4 Apr 2023 at 15:49

Troezar said:
I'd like to go back to an AMD GPU but at current prices my 3060Ti is good enough at 1440p.

I am on an RTX3060TI. Would have liked an RX6700XT but appears AMD does not care about the UK market,WRT to RRP models at launch.

Troezar · 4 Apr 2023 at 16:00

CAT-THE-FIFTH said:
I am on an RTX3060TI. Would have liked an RX6700XT but appears AMD does not care about the UK market,WRT to RRP models at launch.

Yes I would have bought a 6700XT it they had been sensibly priced. In fact I would have bought a 6800XT if they had been £500. Not even close!

CAT-THE-FIFTH · 4 Apr 2023 at 16:03

Troezar said:
Yes I would have bought a 6700XT it they had been sensibly priced. In fact I would have bought a 6800XT if they had been £500. Not even close!

The RTX3060TI FE was probably the most sensibly priced card of the last generation. The 8GB VRAM buffer was stingy,but it was closer to £350,like the RX6600XT.

Troezar · 4 Apr 2023 at 16:16

CAT-THE-FIFTH said:
The RTX3060TI FE was probably the most sensibly priced card of the last generation. The 8GB VRAM buffer was stingy,but it was closer to £350,like the RX6600XT.

Yes it does feel like they are really missing an opportunity. I think the first one to start offering genuinely well priced cards will sell like hot cakes.

KompuKare · 4 Apr 2023 at 16:32

CAT-THE-FIFTH said:
IIRC,Nvidia tried to pass off their GPU sales boom and price rises during the pandemic as being mostly down to gaming demand(I might be wrong on this),so now that it's quite clear a lot of it was mining.So now they can't seem to be able to do an about-turn,and reduce pricing. So now they have a ton of volume they purchased for the previous generation and want to some how sell the RTX3000 series at RRP or higher. But the problem is they also booked volume on TSMC 4NM for the RTX4000 series. You can tell they are doing discounts on the RTX3000 series,but to system builders as I have seen prebuilt systems and laptops at decent discounts(cheaper than building a system from parts sourced individually).

It's telling AMD is actually increasing volume.

The bolded certainly was the message they tried to send. So much so that they seemed to be trying to misleading shareholders.

But while mining was huge, it did not explain the full picture either. Simply put: far too many people with no will power overpaid for gaming cards because they were worth it.

Qualcomm are huge buyers - as much as AMD and Nvidia combined. AMD have plenty of pies they can use wafers for so the only surprise with their purchases being up, is that it might be at risk of their precious margins!

Wonder how accurate those figures are, as Broadcom has basically cratered.

CAT-THE-FIFTH · 4 Apr 2023 at 16:38

KompuKare said:
The bolded certainly was the message they tried to send. So much so that they seemed to be trying to misleading shareholders.

But while mining was huge, it did not explain the full picture either. Simply put: far too many people with no will power overpaid for gaming cards because they were worth it.

Qualcomm are huge buyers - as much as AMD and Nvidia combined. AMD have plenty of pies they can use wafers for so the only surprise with their purchases being up, is that it might be at risk of their precious margins!

Wonder how accurate those figures are, as Broadcom has basically cratered.

It also shows the extent of the unsold inventory they have. Maybe AMD did learn from the first mining boom,when they had tons of unsold GCN based cards at one point,so it might be way they seem to be not making many dGPUs.

KompuKare · 4 Apr 2023 at 16:41

CAT-THE-FIFTH said:
It also shows the extent of the unsold inventory they have. Maybe AMD did learn from the first mining boom,when they had tons of unsold GCN based cards at one point,so it might be way they seem to be not making many dGPUs.

I keep thinking that AMD learned about unsold inventory but took the wrong lesson. Back when they first started with APUs I think they were left with too much inventory and had to write it off (this is when they were almost bankrupt). Ever since, they have been leaving money on the table by under-producing IMO. Lately that has been because of the margins obsession but it goes back far further.

CAT-THE-FIFTH · 4 Apr 2023 at 16:42

KompuKare said:
I keep thinking that AMD learned about unsold inventory but took the wrong lesson. Back when they first started with APUs I think they were left with too much inventory and had to write it off (this is when they were almost bankrupt). Ever since, they have been leaving money on the table by under-producing IMO. Lately that has been because of the margins obsession but it goes back far further.

I am hoping the RX7600 series being 6NM is indicate of them wanting to not be supply constrained?

Troezar · 4 Apr 2023 at 16:43

KompuKare said:
I keep thinking that AMD learned about unsold inventory but took the wrong lesson. Back when they first started with APUs I think they were left with too much inventory and had to write it off (this is when they were almost bankrupt). Ever since, they have been leaving money on the table by under-producing IMO. Lately that has been because of the margins obsession but it goes back far further.

I wish AMD would just target great price to performance and sell as many as they can.

KompuKare · 4 Apr 2023 at 16:47

They really have a stubborn trait.
Over and over again with their "we are not a budget brand" they set the price way to high (usually just under Nvidia but this applies to CPUs too), get little sales; and poor reviews.

Then after 6+ months of few sales they slash the prices to something more realistic. Latest episode: the 7900 XT has come down a fair bit since launch and looks a lot better now. As usually, this strategy didn't gain them much mindshare!

CAT-THE-FIFTH said:
I am hoping the RX7600 series being 6NM is indicate of them wanting to not be supply constrained?

Is PS5 Pro on 6nm too? Or is it too late to worry about that as Sony already paid for a shrink for the normal PS5?

CAT-THE-FIFTH · 4 Apr 2023 at 16:50

KompuKare said:
They really have a stubborn trait.
Over and over again with their "we are not a budget brand" they set the price way to high (usually just under Nvidia but this applies to CPUs too), get little sales; and poor reviews.#

Then after 6+ months of few sales they slash the prices to something more realistic. Latest episode: the 7900 XT has come down a fair bit since launch and looks a lot better now. As usually, this strategy didn't gain them much mindshare!

They seem to forget,it took Intel and Nvidia years of being on top to get away with doing that. AMD basically being ahead(on and off) for only two years in CPU,and not being better in dGPUs think they can do it.

KompuKare said:
Is PS5 Pro on 6nm too? Or is it too late to worry about that as Sony already paid for a shrink for the normal PS5?

I would think it would be on 5NM?