When the Gpu's prices will go down ?

[Jimmy Weirdarms]

Any reason why the 4070 base price jumped £20 today? I'm not paying more and it's just putting off the inevitable

You wouldn’t want a 4060Ti would you? No, good little consumer, pay a bit more for the 4070, there you go, wasn’t so painful…

I’m still finding uk prices nuts. There’s an MSI 4070 on sale in Aus today at £430.

 

[JediFragger]

I’m still finding uk prices nuts. There’s an MSI 4070 on sale in Aus today at £430.

Tbf it's about time you guys got some good pricing, you're always getting ripped off for stuff!!!

 

[Troezar]

I'd say it should be what a reasonable price for a 46060Ti should be, £350-375. At that I'd recommend it.

 

[sityeuropa]

I don't think Nvidia care, their stock is rocketing. Can you imagine the needs now for data centres with all this AI processing that needs to be done.

 

[robgmun]

You wouldn’t want a 4060Ti would you? No, good little consumer, pay a bit more for the 4070, there you go, wasn’t so painful…

I’m still finding uk prices nuts. There’s an MSI 4070 on sale in Aus today at £430.

As i've said before, i'm not going to pay a penny more than £500. The prices going in the wrong direction just makes me less likely for me to buy not more.

 

[SirPsychoZe0]

One of the 4090s is down to £1,500 at the moment. Seriously tempted to sell my 3080 and upgrade now that I'm on 4k 144hz monitor (and am particularly sensitive to anything below 120 fps).

 

[Gibbo]

I don't think Nvidia care, their stock is rocketing. Can you imagine the needs now for data centres with all this AI processing that needs to be done.

Yep they are now above their Covid peak.

 

[Troezar]

Yep they are now above their Covid peak.

AI bubble, everyone chasing a quick buck. Wait for the reality that it's not what people think it is, a bit like self driving cars

 

[Ayahuasca]

AI bubble, everyone chasing a quick buck. Wait for the reality that it's not what people think it is, a bit like self driving cars

Cheers Geoff, what should we be investing in instead as you can clearly see the reality of the future?

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Why is everytime we get a poor generation of dGPUs,PCMR need to spin reasons that it is OK? Are you lot saying because Big Oil is making mega profits that everyone should just keep quiet about high energy prices? Many of the same people keep defending Nvidia,AMD and Intel trying fast ones on gamers all the time - Nvidia isn't the only one trying it. AMD is part of the problem too. They do these moves,because they believe the market will bare it.

This was the same with Turing:

NVIDIA Reinvents Computer Graphics with Turing Architecture

NVIDIA today reinvented computer graphics with the launch of the NVIDIA Turing GPU architecture. The greatest leap since the invention of the CUDA GPU in 2006, Turing features new RT Cores to accelerate ray tracing and new Tensor Cores for AI inferencing which, together for the first time, make...

nvidianews.nvidia.com

These two engines — along with more powerful compute for simulation and enhanced rasterization — usher in a new generation of hybrid rendering to address the $250 billion visual effects industry. Hybrid rendering enables cinematic-quality interactive experiences, amazing new effects powered by neural networks and fluid interactivity on highly complex models.

Many on here were saying the Turing price rise was fine,because Nvidia will be selling all their cards to the $250 billion VFX market and RT was the future. Gamers should shut up or put up,because Nvidia doesn't need them anymore as VFX/Supercomputers are higher margin. Yet,we got the Turing refresh and Ampere(which was fine at launch in terms of pricing). Nvidia will adjust its stack if sales are not upto scratch.

Gaming is still important in revenue overall,and only the larger die products are really what are being sold to big "AI" customers. So it is RTX4090 customers who need to be more worried.

Do people think Nvidia wants to give up the huge number of desktop/laptops which bundle an Nvidia dGPU with to AMD or Intel? I doubt it.

Also tons of money printing has been done over the last few years. It's making its way through the global financial system,and the tech industry is awash in it. But over the next few years interest rates will rise even more,and there will be fiscal tightening meaning less money will be available especially at the pleb level. A lot of US banks are now failing and interest payments for a lot of companies are going to skyrocket. People should start hunkering down.

 

[Troezar]

Cheers Geoff, what should we be investing in instead as you can clearly see the reality of the future?

You should be spreading your investments into many asset classes. Just like I can't see the future neither can the gold rush fever types of "investors", the stock markets are massively over-valued by speculators.

 

[KompuKare]

Cheers Geoff, what should we be investing in instead as you can clearly see the reality of the future?

A bit of realism is needed, however even if everyone can plainly see it is a bubble that does not mean some won't make a fortune.

Like the mining ponzi scheme it is mostly about when to pull out. Stock market has been largely speculation for far too long.

I love sitting here with realistic almost jaundiced view but while this means I will not lose my shirt I also won't become a speculative millionaire.

Of course, the current hyped bubble is different.

This time it is for real.

Unlike crypto, or dot-com, or ...

...Tulip Mania.

(Which is not to say that AI may lead to even more un- and under-employment. Governments really should start worrying - well those few governments which don't just serve the very few.)

 

[Ayahuasca]

AI is a completely different "bubble" to those. It's not going anywhere for a very long time and while it may deflate over time, I can't see it going pop anytime soon.

I wasn't asking for genuine investment advice, more how Troezar thinks it's going to go pop.

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

(Which is not to say that AI may lead to even more un- and under-employment and governments really should start worrying - well those few governments which don't just server the very few.)

Yep,instead of using AI to make people's working lives easier and increasing productivity,they will just replace many people's jobs with it. Got to increase those margins - then governments will make surprised panda faces why people are protesting,social problems increase,etc. Then instead of addressing the excessive financialisation of everthing,they will just clamp down more on civil liberties.

AI is a completely different "bubble" to those. It's not going anywhere for a very long time and while it may deflate over time, I can't see it going pop anytime soon.

But also very different to mining,there are far more companies/countries who want a piece of the action. So basically far more competition,unlike mining,VFX or gaming. Nvidia or even AMD to a lesser degree have early mover advantages,but I am uncertain how long that will last.

Plus the trade/tech war with China is even concerning JHH:

https://archive.is/OuAE4

Speaking to the Financial Times, Jensen Huang said US export controls introduced by the Biden administration to slow Chinese semiconductor manufacturing had left the Silicon Valley group with “our hands tied behind our back” and unable to sell advanced chips in one of the company’s biggest markets.
At the same time, he added, Chinese companies were starting to build their own chips to rival Nvidia’s market-leading processors for gaming, graphics and artificial intelligence.
“If [China] can’t buy from . . . the United States, they’ll just build it themselves,” he said. “So the US has to be careful. China is a very important market for the technology industry.”

So as much as people think gaming isn't still important,it is an easy market for companies like Nvidia which is relatively low risk and high revenue.

 

[TNA]

AI is a completely different "bubble" to those. It's not going anywhere for a very long time and while it may deflate over time, I can't see it going pop anytime soon.

True. Almost definitely can't see it going anywhere soon based on what we are seeing now. Nvidia will be milking for a good while yet.

And even if they offend some gamers now with higher prices, they know that all they have to do is release a gen with lower prices and suddenly all will be forgotten and everyone will praise them again.

 

[KompuKare]

AI is a completely different "bubble" to those. It's not going anywhere for a very long time and while it may deflate over time, I can't see it going pop anytime soon.

I wasn't asking for genuine investment advice, more how Troezar thinks it's going to go pop.

Maybe, although I did address this:

Of course, the current hyped bubble is different.

This time it is for real.

Unlike crypto, or dot-com, or ...

...Tulip Mania.

However what is a bubble is using GPUs for this. The big players will design their own custom silicon for this.

Some of the smaller players will continue to buy (mostly Nvidia) GPUs for this.

But what happened with self-driving cars was nothing unique. Rather than working with Nvidia (never a good partner), Tesla - for example - decided they could do far better and cut out the middle man.

Like ARM servers: while the barrier to entry is (relatively) low big clients will do their own and not pay Nvidia/Intel/AMD.

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

And even if they offend some gamers now with higher prices, they know that all they have to do is release a gen with lower prices and suddenly all will be forgotten and everyone will praise them again.

Which is why all the people trying to spin "AI" makes high consumer dGPU pricing fine,because Nvidia does not need gamers,is the same as:
1.)Nvidia has mining in 2017 and 2021,meaning they don't need gamers
2.)Nvidia has a $250 billion VFX market in 2018,meaning they don't need gamers

Despite not needing gamers,they ended up releasing the Turing refresh in 2019 and Ampere MK1 in 2020,which seemed to restore some degree of price/performance. Most of the products sold to large AI customers are larger die products,with lots of VRAM. Its RTX4090 type dGPUs which are most under threat of being diverted.

A lot of the high pricing done by Nvidia,AMD or Intel is opportunistic but the moment it doesn't work as well you see the following:
1.)Free game bundles included
2.)Price reductions
3.)Rebates

 

[gpuerrilla]

However what is a bubble is using GPUs for this. The big players will design their own custom silicon for this.

Some of the smaller players will continue to buy (mostly Nvidia) GPUs for this.

Just to reiterate, this is the same in the crypto mining space. People buy dedicated ASIC's to do the real workload, there is no need for GPU's to do this its just been convenient while it matures. AI will experience the same, the only reason they coexist right now is nvidia/AMD have been trying to entertain both markets with one product.

 

[Ayahuasca]

So the question becomes how long can nVidia milk off it and how quickly do users or competitors move over to something else. That we don't know.

I just don't see it as a bubble as such, more a pretty standard trajectory for a popular emerging technology. I think they'll continue to make a good return in that sector for the next 5-10 years and it will continue to have a big effect on how their GPUs are marketed and priced.

 

[gpuerrilla]

Its nothing new. FPGA's and ASIC's take over because there eventually is demand for them and the industry double's down on the specifics.