Why GPU prices are NOT likely to drop significantly EVER!

[Alan McFall]

Can't see much difference in GPU prices over the last 2 months or so?
Carlton dance!

They are dropping, I saw 3060's for £440 (gigabyte gaming LHR - triple fan) at another retailer. Was very tempted to buy one..

Kid brain : wow only £440 for a 3060 ! quick ! quick !
Adult brain : ONLY £440 ??

 

[rumple9]

Everyone blames simply mining for the price increases but its not just that. The price increase has been due to a perfect storm of supply and demand factors:

1) Coronavirus limiting production at chip factories and also hindering transportation chains
2) Pandemic causing more people to work from home and companies buying laptops to send out to their employees, increasing demand
3) Pandemic causing children to be off school so their parents are buying them computers
4) Trump's trade war with China caused the Chinese Government to buy up lots of chips and stop exporting chips they made
5) Pandemic again - US Government stimulus relief cheques sent out to Americans which many spent on consumer goods (amount of posts I saw on reddit of people posting gfx cards they bought with relief cheques was unbelievable)
6) New console launches - more demand for chips for the new consoles plus those people who were 13/14 5 years ago who had ps4/xbox, are now working or students with loans, deciding rather than get ps5 they would pay extra for a PC
7) The suez canal ship blockage caused a 2 week delay in global supply chains
8) Both 3000 & 6000 series were better than expected causing people to warrant an upgrade
9) The FPS marketing myth that people need high frame rates to play, increasing demand for cards
10) Fire at Japanese TSMC plant closed the factory for a month
11) Drought in Taiwan has hit chip manufacturing capacity as these plants use tonnes of water
12) Pandemic causing increased shipping costs
13) People upgrading their screens to 2k/4k fueling the need for new gfx cards
14) Lastly bitcoin mining

 

[Secret_Window]

It is getting better very slowly. I was tempted to get a 1660 I saw the other day, but decided to wait. The crypto mining crackdown has definitely helped I believe.

 

[ASMB]

They are dropping, I saw 3060's for £440 (gigabyte gaming LHR - triple fan) at another retailer. Was very tempted to buy one..

Kid brain : wow only £440 for a 3060 ! quick ! quick !
Adult brain : ONLY £440 ??

With prices coming down it amazes me that people are sometimes still paying over £500 for a 3060 on auction sites, when as you say, its possible to buy for less than £500 at retail with a 3 or 4 year warranty

 

[Joxeon]

Hate to break it to ya... mining has been around since 2010. There has been many a gen of GPU releases between then and now, its only the bandwagon that instills this mindset. Crypto has many cycles of bad spells, you could even say this gen was a bad time to buy cards as they are so overpriced! Think early 2017 when pascal and polaris cards were way cheaper...

People are more FOMO though now with lots of people jumping on this new bandwagon so mining has become more mainstream rather than a small niche. Up till the crypto halving Gpus couldn't even be found in stock but since then stock is available albeit still at inflated prices.

 

[gpuerrilla]

People are more FOMO though now with lots of people jumping on this new bandwagon so mining has become more mainstream rather than a small niche. Up till the crypto halving Gpus couldn't even be found in stock but since then stock is available albeit still at inflated prices.

Yeah I understand the mainstream aspect, each year it snowballs more people into it. I'm just pointing out as I have been doing it for that long, one of the main reasons I got a strong card every cycle would be after checking out its mining capability. When I'm not using it for productivity/gaming its put to mining. This has been happening even if you be generous and say GPU mining got traction since 2013, that's eight years of graphics releases. Its not a new phenomenon or paradigm, its just gamers were slow to cotton on that if you just bought a 1080 in 2016 it was great for making some pocket money.

The attitude has to change from attacking end users to going to the manufacturers. Nvidia could have made LHR models for years!

 

[dave28]

They are dropping, I saw 3060's for £440 (gigabyte gaming LHR - triple fan) at another retailer. Was very tempted to buy one..

Kid brain : wow only £440 for a 3060 ! quick ! quick !
Adult brain : ONLY £440 ??

it that the famous retailer who cant do home delivery and they are never available in your area for collection.

i swear they have one card in one store in the country and put it on their website that they have stock

 

[Poneros]

The new normal

https://twitter.com/3DCenter_org/status/1417023903126343688/photo/1

 

[Kaapstad]

I wonder if the real reason China are clamping down on miners has more to do with the fact that a lot of the stuff that goes into GPUs are made in Taiwan and Korea.

It could be a clever way of damaging rival companies to China's own home grown companies?

 

[dave28]

I wonder if the real reason China are clamping down on miners has more to do with the fact that a lot of the stuff that goes into GPUs are made in Taiwan and Korea.

It could be a clever way of damaging rival companies to China's own home grown companies?

I imagine its because the miners are using initiative and thinking for themself. Not allowed in some parts

 

[gpuerrilla]

I imagine its because the miners are using initiative and thinking for themself. Not allowed in some parts

Correct, that and the fact the money they make is in whichever currency they want - which means China either dont know and thus cannot control it or its not in the YUAN.

 

[Kaapstad]

I imagine its because the miners are using initiative and thinking for themself. Not allowed in some parts

Don't think so, there are plenty of examples where the Chinese people use a lot of initiative and thinking which the government turns a blind eye to.

 

[Kaapstad]

the fact the money they make is in whichever currency they want - which means China either dont know and thus cannot control it or its not in the YUAN.

This ^

I have said this on numerous occasions elsewhere long before the Chinese started clamping down on mining.

People being able to move money around without the Chinese government knowing about it is like waving a red rag at a bull.

I can also see western governments coming down hard on mining eventually for the same reason unless they want their economies to collapse.

 

[Alan McFall]

it that the famous retailer who cant do home delivery and they are never available in your area for collection.

i swear they have one card in one store in the country and put it on their website that they have stock

They were available for delivery and were in stock for a few hours after I found them... likely all on auction now for £540

 

[HangTime]

6) New console launches - more demand for chips for the new consoles plus those people who were 13/14 5 years ago who had ps4/xbox, are now working or students with loans, deciding rather than get ps5 they would pay extra for a PC
8) Both 3000 & 6000 series were better than expected causing people to warrant an upgrade
9) The FPS marketing myth that people need high frame rates to play, increasing demand for cards
13) People upgrading their screens to 2k/4k fueling the need for new gfx cards

Whilst I agree with the overall theme of your post, the above issues are not that specific to the current point in time. We've had console launches before (I accept it's not flat demand though, more a spike every 6 years or so, and it's timed alongside other events this time), we've had good performing GPUs before, the FPS marketing has been around for many years, and monitor upgrades have been around for years. The last two points are really just "people want faster GPUs" which has always been the case. I don't think there's any particular seismic shock from those factors, in fact arguably #9 and #13 are a bit at odds with either other - #9 is fuelling the purchase of high refresh 1080p screens. When we look at the 3000/6000 series being better than expected, that wouldn't fully explain why demand/prices for weaker GPUs is so high.

 

[gpuerrilla]

I can also see western governments coming down hard on mining eventually for the same reason unless they want their economies to collapse.

Agree, we are at some point going to come out of the wild west phase where regulation dominates and the golden era of making simple money for regular people on the side is going to thin out. One of the very few opportunities over generations that people can make lots of wealth - but many are missing the boat.

 

[ASMB]

They were available for delivery and were in stock for a few hours after I found them... likely all on auction now for £540

This, I saw them on stock for a few hours and some new listings on the main auction site, baffles me why people are buying from scalpers for more money with no warranty rather than just check the retailer first thing in the morning to see what stock they have put up during the night

 

[Joxeon]

The new normal

https://twitter.com/3DCenter_org/status/1417023903126343688/photo/1

Looks very much like the ethereum price chart for this year.

 

[Tohrazer]

I was lucky enough to grab a 3070, although I have friends and family that are unable to get ahold of anything at a sensible price.

 

[Xerai]

it that the famous retailer who cant do home delivery and they are never available in your area for collection.

i swear they have one card in one store in the country and put it on their website that they have stock

That is where I got my 3070 last week for £650. No scripts, no bot. It was doing that funny thing the site has been doing since last year for gfx cards of in stock/out of stock everytime you refresh but the buttons never working. This time it actually let me buy one and pay. I didnt believe it was real until I actually opened the box, like you I thought they didnt really have any and the website was glitched. I guess a lot of people had just given up on them like you seem to have done.