Why GPU prices are NOT likely to drop significantly EVER!

[Birdseed007]

Actually that earlier post referencing the scalping and hyping of trainers reminded me of the difficulty of getting tickets to gigs nowadays. Back in 1987 I booked tickets to see Pink Floyd, and again I did so in 1989. I had no issue at all getting hold of them, no waiting by the internet or phone at 9am on the day they were released and I recall the 1987 tickets to see the biggest concert ever staged at that point cost £17.50!!! Try doing that now lol. I tried to get tickets for the last McCartney Tour and had no hope at all even sitting by the computer with a day off the day they released. I tried the same with Kate Bush and the closest I came was having 2 premium tickets for £1000 each in my cart which I let go as although I have loved her all my life I simply can't justify £2000 to see her perform.

Everything is hyped beyond belief nowadays and scalpers selling concert tickets for inflated prices are all over the place - looking at you Viagogo!! The consumer is fighting back though with Twickets where tickets can be resold to fellow fans at face value only. The internet has created this ability for hype sadly and invited scalping for anything in short supply.

 

[gpuerrilla]

GPU mining has been around since at least 2013. I thought it came about in 2009

Bitcoin was initially mineable on the CPU for a while. All I can remember was being able to mine more scoins on the GPU and trade them on an exchange for BTC. So mining as a new scene came after the genesis block as you say about 2009. I didn't mine it that early but think about how many generations of GPU could have been used like the Radeon HD 5550 lol. Don't remember any shortages from miners over the years to be fair.

The people writing the algorithms to use a GPU would have had to know different style of parallel type programming. It would have matured after the CPU developers stuff was out for a while.

Much like GRID and BOINC/Science computing at the time it took a while till you could contribute with your GPU this is what I recall anyway.

Actually that earlier post referencing the scalping and hyping of trainers reminded me of the difficulty of getting tickets to gigs nowadays. Back in 1987 I booked tickets to see Pink Floyd, and again I did so in 1989. I had no issue at all getting hold of them, no waiting by the internet or phone at 9am on the day they were released and I recall the 1987 tickets to see the biggest concert ever staged at that point cost £17.50!!! Try doing that now lol. I tried to get tickets for the last McCartney Tour and had no hope at all even sitting by the computer with a day off the day they released. I tried the same with Kate Bush and the closest I came was having 2 premium tickets for £1000 each in my cart which I let go as although I have loved her all my life I simply can't justify £2000 to see her perform.

Everything is hyped beyond belief nowadays and scalpers selling concert tickets for inflated prices are all over the place - looking at you Viagogo!! The consumer is fighting back though with Twickets where tickets can be resold to fellow fans at face value only. The internet has created this ability for hype sadly and invited scalping for anything in short supply.

Exactly this. Its the modern age/tech enabling any Joe now to participate and now you are disadvantaged.

 

[VersionMonkey]

Yes but what's your average for 6900xt across the board, should be about £1500 or so same as mine.

No, what you said was:

These are the lowest prices I found so average prices are higher.

The lowest price that I found, currently, for a 6900XT is around £1200 - 20% lower than your lowest price.

I also drew your attention to a model that was reportedly £2100 6 months ago, £1800 last week and is £1500 now. I would posit that that counts as a "significant" drop. Countering your premise that they won't drop significantly "EVER!".

 

[Harold lloyd]

I am not talking about AIB. I am talking MSRP. I am talking about FE. I don’t pay more than FE prices.

Competition matters at the end of the day. My guess in dollars is $499-$549 for it.

Yes that price range could be about right for a 4070 FE.
Wanted a FE card myself but no chance really here in the UK, still happy with my Gigabyte 6700XT. Good luck with getting a 4070 FE when they launch.

 

[Harold lloyd]

No, what you said was:



The lowest price that I found, currently, for a 6900XT is around £1200 - 20% lower than your lowest price.

I also drew your attention to a model that was reportedly £2100 6 months ago, £1800 last week and is £1500 now. I would posit that that counts as a "significant" drop. Countering your premise that they won't drop significantly "EVER!".

Yes you're right that drop from £2100 to £1500 is significant but looks to be price fixing!

Yup I posted the lowest prices on my update but the thread is not about lowest prices of every GPU.

To be clear to everyone what this thread is about when I first started it about 3 months ago :-

It means the AVERAGE GPU price of all the AIB 3090 cards or 6900xt cards etc using price data from many/most
retailers on the internet, AND this average price must hold for a month or two at least to be significant.

Example: AVERAGE GPU price of all the AIB 3090 brand cards should drop to about £1700 to be significant.

Example: AVERAGE GPU price of all the AIB 6900XT brand cards should drop to about £1000 to be significant.

None of this has happened since I started this thread almost 3 months ago. Lets see the prices a month or so on.

 

[Joxeon]

None of this has happened since I started this thread almost 3 months ago. Lets see the prices a month or so on.

It will be next year when ethereum goes POS that we will see some major reductions unless we have a huge crypto price crash before then.

While Gpus continue to be a means of generating money then people will continue to pay top dollar to get them.

 

[Harold lloyd]

As far as I understand it, there are no shortages of oil or 'cheap oil'.

Where are you reading this?

Well one glance at the WTI oil chart will show you what's going on. (set WTI to Monthly not daily bars)

https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil

From 1980 (and earlier) the oil price was about $25 or less then around year 2000 it started moving up (cheap middle east oil shortage).
Also the industry had to make up the shortage with shale/Venezuela extra heavy crude/Canada oil sands which were known about for decades but weren't touched with
a barge pole due to high extraction cost.

So the oil price HAD to rise so the price of just about everything rises!
You need plenty of cheap oil to mine metals out of the ground, transport, food production, plastics, the carpets, curtains, the clothes on your back and GPUs and Oats too!
The Saudis have said that the Ghawar largest oil field in the world is producing much less.

 

[VersionMonkey]

Yes you're right that drop from £2100 to £1500 is significant but looks to be price fixing!

Nah. The £2100 was just everybody in the supply chain taking a little extra along the way because they could sell them at any price. They are not selling out at the high prices any more.

From 1980 (and earlier) the oil price was about $25 or less then around year 2000 it started moving up (cheap middle east oil shortage).
Also the industry had to make up the shortage with shale/Venezuela extra heavy crude/Canada oil sands which were known about for decades but weren't touched with
a barge pole due to high extraction cost.

So the oil price HAD to rise

I'm just a badly informed IT guy, not a trader retired or otherwise; but I think you've got cause and effect the wrong way round there. The oil price rose so the more expensive extraction methods became economically viable. Industry didn't have to do it, somebody just realised they could make money from it.

You have heard of OPEC haven't you? Venezula are members, so they might have helped pursuade the others that the price needed to be higher if they didn't have any other viable oil fields; I suppose (hey I said I was badly informed). But the risk for them in doing so is that non-members like Canada and, say, the US can also take advantage of less viable fields too and mess with their carefully laid quotas.

So the oil price HAD to rise so the price of just about everything rises!
You need plenty of cheap oil to mine metals out of the ground, transport, food production, plastics, the carpets, curtains, the clothes on your back and GPUs and Oats too!

It is true that the price of oil can impact the price of other things.

The Saudis have said that the Ghawar largest oil field in the world is producing much less.

But Saudi Arabia is also a member of OPEC so will be sticking with the quotas.

Plus apparently the current price of oil is within OPEC's target range. So that's all right then.

 

[chrcoluk]

With the energy crisis I am waiting for mining to get banned, but its probably not even known about with ministers.

 

[shamus21]

I was only saying the other day about graphic card supply could change for the better.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/b...FQ83y44qMJPdFknZxegBvBEGJVYvDStdDZEZ7hCpeDL-s

 

[gpuerrilla]

“The market is getting more and more used to this rhetoric from China,” he told the Standard.

China began a crackdown on the industry in 2018. Chinese customers have shrunk from 16% of the global bitcoin market to just 4% since 2018, Butterfill said. That figure is now likely to shrink further.

“We’ve seen this before from China where news of bans have been reported over the years, but it has not prevented adoption of Bitcoin and digital assets from continuing their upward trend,” said Freddie Williams, a sales trader at GlobalBlock.

Beijing has long disapproved of cryptocurrencies. It sees crypto as a drain on energy resources and a potential magnet for money laundering and other illicit activity.

Officials have significantly stepped up action over the last year. In June, key Chinese provinces banned cryptocurrency mining. Mining is the complex computing work that underpins the networks of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. China was the global hub for this energy-intensive activity, accounting for 46% of the “hash rate” — industry speak for computing power — as of April this year, according to the University of Cambridge.

So nothing new regarding history repeating itself. Unless loads of countries harmonise and ban it, it will recover.

It will slightly benefit the rest of the world though. If China who more or less makes all the GPU's stop buying and intercepting the cards before they ship out of the country, then other countries should be able to receive more stock this year!

 

[Secret_Window]

So what people are saying is, the Chinese crypto farms were intercepting and buying up most of the global gpu stock and this shortage led to scalpers targeting the remaining stock and further inflating prices?

Edit: just read post above mine, nvm.

 

[gpuerrilla]

Well straw man alert, but think about it, if China is banning and making this hard to do the people have a choice to either setup shop abroad (albeit at expensive running costs compared to what they were on), continue with risk of being punished, or sell up and move on.

It says they accounted for nearly half of the hash rate, and with this lots of hardware (also ASICs not just GPUs). If China are not buying the GPUs being manufactured then it means more chance of it making it to countries that will lap up the stock to sell.

 

[Secret_Window]

Well straw man alert, but think about it, if China is banning and making this hard to do the people have a choice to either setup shop abroad (albeit at expensive running costs compared to what they were on), continue with risk of being punished, or sell up and move on.

It says they accounted for nearly half of the hash rate, and with this lots of hardware (also ASICs not just GPUs). If China are not buying the GPUs being manufactured then it means more chance of it making it to countries that will lap up the stock to sell.

Yeah you are right about the hash rate.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1200477/bitcoin-mining-by-country/

Hopefully other components will become cheaper too - we just need to sort out the shipping container situation, and all the other issues going on for there to be some stability.

 

[shamus21]

Well straw man alert, but think about it, if China is banning and making this hard to do the people have a choice to either setup shop abroad (albeit at expensive running costs compared to what they were on), continue with risk of being punished, or sell up and move on.

It says they accounted for nearly half of the hash rate, and with this lots of hardware (also ASICs not just GPUs). If China are not buying the GPUs being manufactured then it means more chance of it making it to countries that will lap up the stock to sell.

Exactly. China crypto miners are or were the biggest buyers of GPU`s. If this all plays out like it should maybe just maybe normal pricing before year end.

 

[gpuerrilla]

Hopefully other components will become cheaper too - we just need to sort out the shipping container situation, and all the other issues going on for there to be some stability.

Agree, this seems to be a massive issue really. I wanted to ship a fairly cheap component that's normally inexpensive from China (electronics part) but the shipping is high and the timeframe is laughable.

UK could also do with sorting out this energy price hike, cant be having this problem in this day and age when renewables have been about for decades as has nuclear and we seem to have fallen down the leader board in Europe regarding most industries!

 

[robin66]

China declares all crypto-currency transactions illegal - BBC News

 

[Harold lloyd]

Exactly. China crypto miners are or were the biggest buyers of GPU`s. If this all plays out like it should maybe just maybe normal pricing before year end.

I doubt the GPU prices would drop much even if all the crypto miners suddenly vanished from the face of the earth.

 

[JediFragger]

I doubt the GPU prices would drop much even if all the crypto miners suddenly vanished from the face of the earth.

 

[Harold lloyd]

Agree, this seems to be a massive issue really. I wanted to ship a fairly cheap component that's normally inexpensive from China (electronics part) but the shipping is high and the timeframe is laughable.

UK could also do with sorting out this energy price hike, cant be having this problem in this day and age when renewables have been about for decades as has nuclear and we seem to have fallen down the leader board in Europe regarding most industries!

You've got to pay the piper at some point and so has the UK.
The world has been on oil for over 5 decades, Renewables and nuclear require fossil fuel energy for their production and maintenance they are just a joke in bad science fiction taste!
You really think we'll have Nuke power stations all over the place in the UK or solar panels/wind generators or mass numbers of electric cars?
Just one cup of crude oil contains a huge amount of energy + provides plastics and useful chemicals, do the math renewables and nuclear are just a science fiction fantasy!