Why GPU prices are NOT likely to drop significantly EVER!

[GreyHam]

Partalert had a 3060 for £320 earlier today. Things are starting to get there.
Most importantly the more people hold off waiting for things to go down, the quicker prices will go down

 

[hinesy32]

Good drop of 3060's on OCUK today. Prices a little down on what they were a week or so ago from others. Be interesting to see how long the stock lasts at those prices.

 

[Game]

It's this obsession with increase in margins our busineses have. They will now give up volume if that volume is lower margin. But it also means it enables new competition to enter the market. These companies are going to get a rude awakening once all the free furlough money in Europe/US goes away and people now have to go back to work,and have less free time. Also that effect of consumers and businesses having pushed purchases forward,which will eventually affect increase in demand.

Samsung and Apple were doing the same with smartphones,ie,jacking up prices,hardly improving features,and barely caring about mainstream markets.

Then Chinese companies came along and from the bottom upward innovated more in cameras,and had excellent value entry level and mainstream smartphones. Apple and Samsung were forced to improve. The same happened with
with Japanese cars and electronics, etc. They beat many western companies because they were not so focussed just on short term margins,and simply you gave you more for your money.

Nvidia/AMD don't care because there are enough desperate idiots who will pay the price. Just like all the people who complain about microtransaction filled,low effort AAA games. However, these still sell in huge amounts,cost even more upfront and make huge amounts on top with microtransactions. So the whales ruin it for everyone.

If you are a gamer and actually does not want to pay through the nose then use a console or phone is what AMD/Nvidia are telling you essentially.

you dont for one second believe people in the USA on Furlough get paid its not how it works for 99% of them

most dont even get paid vacations let alone anything else

 

[MCFC_ANDY]

Good drop of 3060's on OCUK today. Prices a little down on what they were a week or so ago from others. Be interesting to see how long the stock lasts at those prices.

still silyl prices tbh

 

[bonusssi]

I am watching 3080 and 3080 TI... starting to think about getting 3090. Saw 3090 for 1600£ FE which is only like 100£ extra really... many of them are still 500£+ above the MSRP.

 

[Purgatory]

I am watching 3080 and 3080 TI... starting to think about getting 3090. Saw 3090 for 1600£ FE which is only like 100£ extra really... many of them are still 500£+ above the MSRP.

3090 FE is £1400 , so if £1600 that's £200 over the MSRP for it. Guessing buying from somewhere else and not direct from Nvidia.

 

[MCFC_ANDY]

3090 FE is £1400 , so if £1600 that's £200 over the MSRP for it. Guessing buying from somewhere else and not direct from Nvidia.

the majority dont go for thousand quid gpu's though, the market is quite small, the gamers market anyway, its the mid range wheres theres very little movement, a few quid here and there, but nothing vast, 600 quid for a 3060 is insane by anyones defination tbh

 

[Scougar]

you dont for one second believe people in the USA on Furlough get paid its not how it works for 99% of them

most dont even get paid vacations let alone anything else

^^^ This. Unless you are working for a corporation, you often will not get vacation paid. Even if you do, vacation time is minimal. Even in the 100K+ per year range we are talking 3 weeks being "really good" amount of vacation. 4 weeks and you are clearly a legend (or worked 10+ years). 5 weeks would mean you worked for a corp for decades (most likely) and got a week extra. Silicon Valley may be the exception to the rule, but as far as I see it, they pay their employees in that area substantial amount of money instead of vacation. For reference I think I get 17 days in my corp + US holidays. It might be slightly more, but not much. PLUS.. this INCLUDES sick time. Unlike in the UK, where you get paid sick leave, over here it is often the same thing, you are just expected to take vacation.

You will not get paid during a furlough. Furlough is to protect the company, not the workers.

---------------

I'm laughing at myself nowadays thinking that '500 is cheap' for a gpu. I have never paid that in my life for a GPU, but now I'll barely think about it.

 

[Harold lloyd]

So you're saying I should buy gold to hedge against inflation?

Yep I still expect gold to go higher, but you should have got some at $1000 or better not where it is at now, its still acceptable at todays prices but you'll have to suffer dips while holding at todays price.

 

[Harold lloyd]

They are the culprits in this case and exploited the scenario despite all the PR. I told people for the last 5~10 years,AMD/Nvidia/Intel are increasngly looking at enthusiasts as a high margin market,and were using it to subsidise other forays.For years Intel and Nvidia jacked up prices but spent billions subsidising Atom and Tegra.

Once you saw stuff like the Titan,I could see where it was heading. People here argued for the price rises.They supplied miners directly now and during previous boons,which reduced consumer supply. OEMs can get parts such as the RTX3060 fine,and that is why you can get laptops for well under £1000 with one - the RTX3060 cards you buy,actually have less shaders than the laptop version.

AMD prioritised consoles over CPUs and GPUs. Due to Huawei being booted off 7NM,AMD has far more supply than they expected. However,they made a decision to sell lower margin consoles instead. They even added extra console wafer supply in 2H 2020.Nearly 70~80% of all AMD 7NM wafer supply went to consoles IIRC. They even admitted recently they want to sell only higher margin CPU/GPU parts. They could have chosen to sell less consoles,but decided that PC enthusiasts are now a higher margin market,so they restricted supply by design.

Both also have jacked up the prices of the parts they sell to AIB partners- you can see that by their record margins and profits on GPUs. They are making massive margins on their parts.
Tech channels have even said that even before the current problems,graphics card AIB partners were being charged more and more by AMD/Nvidia meaning their margins have gotten smaller and smaller.Nvidia makes a significant amount of revenue from their gaming side,and are at record levels.Nvidia have screwed over its AIB partners before - just look during the Fermi times at XFX!

The fact is they have helped somewhat engineer this crisis,by making sure they restrict supply,and hence it drives up prices and margins on their part. They are simply asking way too much for the parts they sell. The OEMs also get hit,as they can't afford to make the cards at the false RRPs,which are there for marketing purposes. But supply is hardly "small" - you can see between them both they shipped a lot of GPUs.

So the fault is entirely on AMD/Nvidia looking at enthusiasts as cash cows. After all OEMs,console makers,all seem to get far more supply and parts much cheaper than we do. AMD/Nvidia can't push Sony/MS/Nintendo/Apple/Dell/HP too far,so the margins are lower.

But someone has to pay for massive multi billion purchases such as Xilinx and Mellanox right??

So they might as well get idiot gamers to throw money at stuff,and make the rest of the margins,together with business/commercial sales.I don't blame them when they see so many idiots throw money at microtransactions,buy quarter completed early access games and buy gamergirl bathwater,and throw money at half naked Twitch Streamers.

They look at enthusiasts as easy money fools now. Its a total inversion of what it was like 20 years ago. People are just in denial - AMD/Nvidia/Intel now treat gamers like Apple treats anyone who is not willing to pay more - a pointless customer. PCMR hasn't understood the change. AMD/Nvidia want their ever increasing margins and they would rather lose sales,then lower the margins. Apple has basically implied the same thing.

Anyone who was a mainstream gamer has seen the utter stagnation over the last 5~6 years,and the stealth price increases. Only now are the "high-end" gamers now seeing the problems when the prices have gone past what they are willing to pay. Covid or no Covid,this trajectory has been happening for years. Or did you think Turing was a fluke?? There was no mining boom,or money printing like we have now. Yet Nvidia jacked prices up,and they made yet another record year of profits and margins.

Gamers are to blame for this scenario - they voted with their pockets,every year. The same for PC games - reheated rubbish making billions each year,so you get half completed rubbish. If consumers stopped acting so weak,and actually didn't indulge these companies things would improve. But like a drug addiction they can't,and AMD/Nvidia/Intel/favourite game company are the drug dealer.

Covid and the mining boom just pushed it along quicker. This is why consoles,smartphones,etc are now the mass market gaming platforms for the average person.

Yes some really good points there, you've dug into the background important details.
Yes I remember that when the 2080Ti was announced with a unusually big price tag.
I didn't realise they were doing marketing tricks and inflating their prices, I traded commodities like copper, iron ore etc and that sort of thing does not happen there when you look at miners important details.
On the surface I see the choke in supply to gamers letting the market is set prices as it sees fit with the huge demand from gamers - old headline but still relevant https://www.techradar.com/uk/news/z...-waiting-a-month-for-delivery-if-theyre-lucky

I'm still seeing a massive difference between supply and demand whatever the causes and fabs aren't going to built in a year or two to meet demand so sticking to my prediction of no significant price drops.

 

[Harold lloyd]

3080 ti ftw ultra.. $1399 (dollars). Previously they were well over $2000.

I'm taking it as a good sign.

Keeping my eye on things.

So far, "the prices are here to stay" is not going your way Harold.

There could be a drop up to 25% max but not large like 50% or more from todays prices.
Anyway as the first big bubble pops in a few months things will turn into a one way street for inflation, plus with the commodity shortages leading the way.

 

[TALON1973]

So glad I opted out of the pc rat race years ago. Ah the days when a 12mb voodoo 2 card @ £200 was high end

 

[Harold lloyd]

Teach me oh wise one, I want that early retirement

We'll most of my family and relatives got degrees and became professionals and made decent money and worked until retirement age.
I was going to be a chemical engineer but dropped my place at Uni and somehow got into trading, worked my butt off for over 10 years and invented methods of my own,
then in my late thirties decided to pack it all in as I had become wealthier than family/relatives enough that I wouldn't have to work again.
Basically if you're willing to give up most of your life for about 10 years (not much time to spend with your family or partying) and build some kind of business like trading
and think out of the box and go over and above then I'm sure you'll make enough to retire.

 

[Caracus2k]

So glad I opted out of the pc rat race years ago. Ah the days when a 12mb voodoo 2 card @ £200 was high end

To be fair to have 'top end' you needed to have a pair of them and then you still needed to shell out for another graphics card on top to do the non 3d accelerated stuff.

So more like 3080 msrp when all done.

 

[Harold lloyd]

I'm assuming that's a dig at someone like me. Tell, oracle, what should someone like me do in this situation? Just a regular gamer with a pig old PC looking for a new one with money in my hand to spend.

Just sit around and wait? 1 month? 6 months? Another year?

Spend my money?

Oh yeah I forgot to say you got to take time off to party.
£250 saved will only get you a gourmet meal at a high class restaurant.
Why wait 6 or 12 months just to save a bit of cash when you could be partying with your new GPU right now!

 

[Jan Zajac]

Oh yeah I forgot to say you got to take time off to party.
£250 saved will only get you a gourmet meal at a high class restaurant.
Why wait 6 or 12 months just to save a bit of cash when you could be partying with your new GPU right now!

Are you struggling to sell your scalped up GPU's that much ;D
Geez that's desperate ;D

 

[pp111]

the majority dont go for thousand quid gpu's though, the market is quite small, the gamers market anyway, its the mid range wheres theres very little movement, a few quid here and there, but nothing vast, 600 quid for a 3060 is insane by anyones defination tbh

I agree. It concerns me the desperation many people seem to have sunk to! "Oh, yea, I'm considering £1600 for a graphics card.." What? Seriously? Are you out of your mind? That's exactly why NVIDIA shows us nothing but contempt! Many enthusiasts now seem to have adjusted their "good value" knob to the "damn stupid" setting. A card that has a lifetime of just a few years, it's just not worth over-paying to that extent. I am honestly gobsmacked at how many people have dialed in to crazy! The 4090 will be out in a year but people just can't wait to spend their money. Absolutely nuts.

 

[hinesy32]

Oh yeah I forgot to say you got to take time off to party.
£250 saved will only get you a gourmet meal at a high class restaurant.
Why wait 6 or 12 months just to save a bit of cash when you could be partying with your new GPU right now!

Well some would consider a meal at $250 a serious waste of money. Not much of a return on my investment

I've paid pretty close (well compared to many others) to RRP for a 3060, so I'm pretty happy with that now. Happy gaming to me.

 

[Jay85]

I think most people now will have gotten a gpu they want, its not actually that difficult, it's just prices are still over the top. FE's have become easier and easier to get, i've had numerous times where i've sat on one in the basket but not checked out.

 

[Anorc]

I saw a 3080ti suprim X on a reputable website for £1550 the other day, still a little high.

Related: It is the same bloody carpet in all of them!