I've read the 'crank' posts and theories, and i've also spent a little time reading about and understanding the weather models.
- The first point used, lowest solar activity in years, now I am very interested in solar activity, always have been, its not low, its actually picking up again for the past 6 months, and currently theirs all kinds of interesting filaments and sunspots crackling and shooting out promanences (something associated with increased solar output). spaceweather.com [check it out] Although there has been a theory suggested recently that solar minima actually can cause a rise in light radiation rather than UV radiation and a warming effect, we are in an already established start of maxima.
- El Nina, opposite of El Nino, causes sea temps to cool in the southern hemisphere, so yes it can get cold, but apparently its effect on europe isnt as well understood, likely the weather will be drier here.
- Actual weather predictions predict a below average by -0.5-1.5 temp range, we could be in for a cold one perhaps, but last year we had extreme drops.
- the gulf stream is slowing. I think although this may be happening, i can't see any real proof, just a few dodgy grainy GIFs, if someone can back this up with a real peer-reviewed scientific study then that would be great, until then i call BS!
Thing is no weather model could have predicted a huge high pressure of cold air coming down from the north pole over north europe, weather is more complicated and unpredictable, and its more than just a "oh the general trend is for x to happen". It can swing widly from unsettled, wet, cold, dry, mild etc, just on pressure systems movement around.