Winter 2019/2020

Participant said:
I thought it was basically impossible to predict weather conditions more than 1-2 weeks ahead?
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There are factors that make certain types of weather more or less likely to happen such as the North Atlantic Oscillation - when it is heading one way we are more likely to get cold weather in the UK when it is going the other we are very unlikely to get cold weather, etc.
 
Perhaps you could lend some of your knowledge to Accuweather as it has to be the most unreliable weather app I have ever seen.
 
Rroff said:
Yay :(

The model outputs aren't great for anything cold actually happening
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Damn, that's not looking good for winter. I was all set for a drive to Scotland this weekend to dust my axes off after the dumping of snow in the week. I keep getting excited and then it warms up again and everything melts. I think this winter season is going to be a complete write off, even worse than last year! :(
 
Street said:
Damn, that's not looking good for winter. I was all set for a drive to Scotland this weekend to dust my axes off after the dumping of snow in the week. I keep getting excited and then it warms up again and everything melts. I think this winter season is going to be a complete write off, even worse than last year! :(
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If we do get a winter it will be a late one - even a setup that normally delivers won't do as the cold has just stayed so intensely bottled up over the arctic for the most part - if it does spill out though it will probably be notable.
 
Saw a butterly flying about the other morning this past week, seemed far too early to see them.
 
Looks like some interesting weather ahead, with potential for quite intense/stormy weather, but I wouldn't have a clue how to interpret it - I get the feeling it is probably building into a cold shot but just not quite managing enough for any real wintery weather.
 
Pawnless Endgame said:
2nd winter in a row in the Midlands without snow. As I predicted.
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GFS is trying to find snow for around the 11th

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I'm not really seeing it though - big stream of cold coming in from our NW but looks like it will be 2-3C too warm over the UK. I'd only get excited if the air mass above us was getting down to around -10C anything else is too marginal in this country.
 
Funky-Melon said:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/weat...pdate-met-office-snow-temperature-storm-ciara

Oh my, 27 inches of the stuff - Best start stocking up on food.

Pah! Useless people :D
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Heh - chances of anything for most of us will be marginal - there is some slight cold spilling out to the NW of us but by the time it gets to us it is cool rather than cold plus the jet stream looks to be sitting over us which isn't generally a good sign of wintery weather.

Such a frustrating winter as there have been endless potent setups brewing that should have shifted the cold our way quite significantly but every time it has hung on over the arctic like grim death or they've faded out almost as quickly as they started.

That said Canada/Alaska have caught some of it from time to time and south eastern Europe looks like getting quite an intense though probably brief shot of cold but it isn't coming our way.
 
I think you will find what they mean is - Snow swept up from a square mile and placed in a bucket will be 27" high.

I certainly hope we get some snow soon - I need to see if winter tyres work.
 
Models have been pretty LOL the last few days - every 2-6 hours depending on model changing their mind and back again - they keep trying to bring snow in for the 11th and 14th but then going off that idea and back again - the only thing they've been consistent on (and not really surprising) is the high ground around Inverness which looks like it is in for a pasting. Arpege which has been pretty accurate in the past puts a small amount over the Pennines and only projects a moderate amount over the high ground in Scotland.

EDIT: Meanwhile parts of Turkey have snow storms :s
 
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ah good ,one of my roof tiles is stuck on with no nails ,only about 8 ft (edit maybe 12 ft but low anyway ) up but a pain
 
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