Winter 2019/2020

And the supposed cold plunge has shifted away from us again hah - not really surprised. Still some signs of an SSW event building up but again not holding my breath the polar vortex has been very resilient this year - though I suspect it will break down very quickly when it does with a possible late cold shot :s
 
It's been quite mild this year I've thought. Not had a need for gloves just yet.

I just wish it wasn't so wet. Always seems to tip it down as I get ready to leave work :(
 
JunglistE said:
It's been quite mild this year I've thought. Not had a need for gloves just yet.

I just wish it wasn't so wet. Always seems to tip it down as I get ready to leave work :(
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Couple of days a week or so I do stuff for work outside (usually in a fairly exposed location on a hillside so gets the cold/wind) during the early hours of the morning - so far needed gloves only twice! normally I'd be using them for weeks at a time at this time of year.

I've somehow managed to dodge the shifts where it was torrential rain and/or the couple of times we've had strong winds though more by accident than design.
 
200sols said:
Looks like another crap 'winter' then.
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Quite annoying as well for me as unlike some of the previous rubbish winters there has been a fair amount of background potential for good cold snowy spells but they just aren't coming off versus previous ones where there wasn't even the circumstances for cold/snow to even potentially happen.
 
Heh the models are all over the shot tonight - looks like strong potential for an SSW but the whole setup leading into it is unusual and quite intense so no idea how that unfolds.
 
well it was nice to see the high pressure start its effects last night ,today and the next few days will be stunning ,had a frost cover this morning,think i will head to polzeath ,these modern wetsuits are amazing

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All this thread shows is that it’s still not possible to make an even vaguely accurate weather forecast more than about three or four days in advance.

Weather will happen. We can’t reliably predict it and all these ‘models’ are just rough guesses that are wrong more often than they’re right.
 
Trip home was chilly, had to de-ice the truck though wasn't that bad. Was around -1C on the exposed parts and some signs of ice starting to form on the road.

Feek said:
All this thread shows is that it’s still not possible to make an even vaguely accurate weather forecast more than about three or four days in advance.

Weather will happen. We can’t reliably predict it and all these ‘models’ are just rough guesses that are wrong more often than they’re right.
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Problem is some of the entities with better accuracy like the UK Met whose medium range forecasts are usually fairly good are overshadowed by the more prominent models which don't have as good record :( and personally I don't have access to easily digested but detailed output from the likes of UK Met.
 
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Lovely morning to walk the dog, -2 out there at 7:30 this morning and are forecasting-4 thru Sunday night Monday morning. That's more like it, shame it dont last.
 
It’s been nice having a few frosty mornings. Feels like winter. Also does a lot of good, helps break up the soil, kills off the slugs and it’s much easier to work outside in the cold and dry than the mild and wet.
 
Feek said:
All this thread shows is that it’s still not possible to make an even vaguely accurate weather forecast more than about three or four days in advance.

Weather will happen. We can’t reliably predict it and all these ‘models’ are just rough guesses that are wrong more often than they’re right.
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Purely anecdotal on my part,

But my impression is that the models are reasonably good at predicting wind speed, atmospheric pressure and general temperature.

However, particularly in places like the UK

Not so good at predicting cloud cover and preciptiation
 
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