Poll: Winter 2021/22 - Will we see lots of snow?

[pastymuncher]

We have been below zero for five days now. High point yesterday was -1.4 degrees C. Seven o'clock this morning it was -2.9 degrees which continued dropping to -3.7 degrees C at 09.30 and it's currently -1.3 degrees so warmer than yesterday (yay). It will start to drop again soon.

 

[Rroff]

Yeah frosty start here as well - but looks like tomorrow will be into double figures C.

 

[pastymuncher]

It's warmed up a bit to -1 although we have a different problem now as I have just found out freezing rain!! I just went to put the bin bag out and ended up flying off the steps like a plane off a carriers deck. That bloody hurt!! Everywhere outside is a slick sheet of shiny ice.

 

[bingham67]

Going up to 12/13 degrees end of next week.

 

[Rroff]

Wish I'd saved an image of the GFS ensembles from a few days ago - it was showing most runs supporting a deep drop to -10C for upper air mass temperatures over the next few days with hints of prolonged cold - instead it has now backed off hard to this:

That gives rise to potential almost Spring like conditions around the 1st...

(In comparison the Met has largely been showing this kind of outcome all along).

 

[200sols]

It's 12c, Christmas looks like topping 13c and next week is forecast the same. Absolutely awful winter.

 

[kinetic747]

Wish I'd saved an image of the GFS ensembles from a few days ago - it was showing most runs supporting a deep drop to -10C for upper air mass temperatures over the next few days with hints of prolonged cold - instead it has now backed off hard to this:

That gives rise to potential almost Spring like conditions around the 1st...

(In comparison the Met has largely been showing this kind of outcome all along).

Following model output is pretty much useless even in the relatively short term. There's so many flip flops that the model watchers are going crazy.

 

[Rroff]

Following model output is pretty much useless even in the relatively short term. There's so many flip flops that the model watchers are going crazy.

Depends a bit - but I didn't buy too much into the last week or so output - too many factors didn't make sense even with a fairly basic understanding of what was going on for it to be right.

 

[kinetic747]

Depends a bit - but I didn't buy too much into the last week or so output - too many factors didn't make sense even with a fairly basic understanding of what was going on for it to be right.

Proper cold is a rare thing in the UK and the models always seem to struggle with real cold scenarios. Obviously, the Atlantic has a huge influence on our weather and that will never change. Anyway, I'm not one of those who are itching for a 1947 or 63 event, I think it would kill a lot of vulnerable people and with the price of utilities, it would be very expensive to keep warm.

 

[Rroff]

Proper cold is a rare thing in the UK and the models always seem to struggle with real cold scenarios. Obviously, the Atlantic has a huge influence on our weather and that will never change. Anyway, I'm not one of those who are itching for a 1947 or 63 event, I think it would kill a lot of vulnerable people and with the price of utilities, it would be very expensive to keep warm.

I'm not one for prolonged cold, living very rurally something like 63 would suck - but a nice day or two of decent snow as a novelty I do enjoy.

 

[CaptainRAVE]

10C, thick cloud, drizzle for the foreseeable future. Now that’s a British winter

 

[Rroff]

10C, thick cloud, drizzle for the foreseeable future. Now that’s a British winter

Plenty going on with the stratosphere/polar vortex I don't think milder conditions are going to persist too long into Jan. 26th could still be quite cold compared to the forecast but it will be brief if it is.

 

[CaptainRAVE]

Plenty going on with the stratosphere/polar vortex I don't think milder conditions are going to persist too long into Jan. 26th could still be quite cold compared to the forecast but it will be brief if it is.

It’ll get cold again just in time for my morning commute so I have to deice the car - you need to include that in your modelling

 

[Rroff]

It’ll get cold again just in time for my morning commute so I have to deice the car - you need to include that in your modelling

I mostly work nights at the moment - early hours of the morning de-icing are no fun :s

 

[Blackjack Davy]

10C, thick cloud, drizzle for the foreseeable future. Now that’s a British winter

Anyone else catch the rerun of the programme about the winter of '63 last night? You can't imagine the sheer amount of snow never mind the deep freeze lasting for three months. Actually its hard to imagine snow these days havn't seen a flake in 5 years at least

 

[sprite1275]

Anyone else catch the rerun of the programme about the winter of '63 last night? You can't imagine the sheer amount of snow never mind the deep freeze lasting for three months. Actually its hard to imagine snow these days havn't seen a flake in 5 years at least

Watched it last year. Looked mad. Didn't it start boxing day and last until March? They were digging steam trains out and loads of sheep and birds died.

 

[HoneyBadger]

Raining here in Kent.

 

[Rroff]

Now I've put my all-season tyres on they are predicting January will be milder than December...

 

[kinetic747]

Anyone else catch the rerun of the programme about the winter of '63 last night? You can't imagine the sheer amount of snow never mind the deep freeze lasting for three months. Actually its hard to imagine snow these days havn't seen a flake in 5 years at least

Just watched it, I was 2 at the time so don't remember it.

 

[Rroff]

13-14C and steady rain right through Christmas day

Nothing really on offering on the current model outputs, a couple of runs trending cold but without much support, though input data tends to become sparse at this point of the year.