Poll: Winter 2021/22 - Will we see lots of snow?

[kinetic747]

I skim TWO, Netweather, etc. forums but don't bother getting involved, it really does get quite odd and sadly at times bitter which is a shame because some really do have a deep understanding but utterly incapable of constructive and educational dialogue with those of lesser knowledge or taking onboard where they could build on someone else's understanding, etc. etc.

Yes, exactly that. They probably understand more than anyone that it only takes minute changes for things to swing one way or the other, but they choose to ignore it. Obviously the models try to pick up on these subtle changes in advance, with varying degrees of success.

 

[Pigeon_Killer]

Some huge tornadoes battered the US overnight and more are expected today.

 

[Minusorange]

Some huge tornadoes battered the US overnight and more are expected today.

Very rare for the time of year, I think that's why so many got caught out and unfortunately the number of dead is quite high

 

[Pigeon_Killer]

Very rare for the time of year, I think that's why so many got caught out and unfortunately the number of dead is quite high

Crossed 4 states apparently which is a first. Some of the videos remind me of Twister, you can hear the wind and rain but only when the lightning strikes can you see the massive tornado.

 

[Minusorange]

Crossed 4 states apparently which is a first. Some of the videos remind me of Twister, you can hear the wind and rain but only when the lightning strikes can you see the massive tornado.

It's so much scarier seeing them at night in the flashes of lightning, big one as well, I was thinking of that film too lol

 

[bingham67]

That crazy you have no chance with that coming at night

 

[moon man]

My room temp is 3 degrees up from yesterday morning. Very mild, seems a little less overcast. Heading out with the board today, that Atlantic low is sending a groundswell hitting about now now, lasting all day

 

[moon man]

Quite a crowd for the storm watching, a lot of power out there at the Cribbar, some 20ft sets coming in edit lying gps its outside headlands hotel

 

[Rroff]

Potential for quite a potent SSW event on the cards - I'm not even gonna try and guess where the cold might go though.

 

[ik9000]

Potential for quite a potent SSW event on the cards - I'm not even gonna try and guess where the cold might go though.

I hear it's pretty frosty in Downing St press office right about now...

 

[Minusorange]

Potential for quite a potent SSW event on the cards - I'm not even gonna try and guess where the cold might go though.

Maybe the animals in my garden are onto something as they seem more hungry than ever despite having plenty of food, I know certain birds like to stockpile for emergency so perhaps they can sense a bad (for them) winter

 

[ik9000]

Maybe the animals in my garden are onto something as they seem more hungry than ever despite having plenty of food, I know certain birds like to stockpile for emergency so perhaps they can sense a bad (for them) winter

interesting - we've noticed exactly the same thing here. Squirrels and foxes as well as birds.

 

[kinetic747]

Maybe the animals in my garden are onto something as they seem more hungry than ever despite having plenty of food, I know certain birds like to stockpile for emergency so perhaps they can sense a bad (for them) winter

Much better than all the super computers.

 

[200sols]

Temperatures are going the wrong way here, its over 12c again and only 1 day touched (just) below 0 in the last 30! Pathetic winter so far.

 

[ik9000]

weather forecast said we have a weird high pressure come up from S at the moment, low pressure from NE returns end of the week and pushes stuff down again. There's a conflicting series of pressures coming from different directions so things are bouncing around.

 

[moon man]

My garden is confused with the mildness, on the plus side i am saving on heating oil and not freezing nuts off getting in and out of wetsuit

 

[Rroff]

weather forecast said we have a weird high pressure come up from S at the moment, low pressure from NE returns end of the week and pushes stuff down again. There's a conflicting series of pressures coming from different directions so things are bouncing around.

Wondering if we are going to find the GFS model is playing up again :s seems to be a lot of oddities in the model outputs at the moment.

Some hints of a PV split in the latest runs around the end of the month but the last 2 updates haven't been able to pin down the evolution of stratospheric warming and where the cold might go at all.

 

[Neil79]

The latest update from the Swedish Met is well worth a read, very bullish on the idea of blocked conditions continuing into January with an increasing influence from southerly tracking low pressure systems, seems they're also going with the ECM. Far more bullish than the Met Office would ever be.

https://www.klart.se/artikel/prognos-dec-jan-2021/

 

[Gypo]

HERE SHE COMES

850'S - check
2m Temps - check
Blocking - check




Still 10 days out and there is a hell of a lot that can go wrong, but that's a beautiful chart.

Onwards to the 18z!!

 

[200sols]

@Gypo can you explain if this means SNOW