Poll: Winter 2021/22 - Will we see lots of snow?

What will we see this winter?

  • Snow blizzards and minus 50 degrees

    Votes: 60 15.5%

  • Drizzle and wind

    Votes: 241 62.4%

  • Hurricane Pancakes

    Votes: 72 18.7%

  • Highest xxxx since records began

    Votes: 78 20.2%
  • Total voters
    386
12z is actually quite a lot better than it looks even at first glance with the jet displaced somewhat over the 25th amongst other things but a lot is going to hinge on high pressure to the north of us which looks on a knife edge and easily insufficient to have an influence.

But the models seem to be really struggling with some quite anomalous patterns in the mix so I'm not sure what to make of it in general beyond the next few days - especially with the stratosphere stuff is all over the place without much consistency or agreement despite quite a lot of dramatic changes popping up.

(Personally I think someone has yet again stuffed something up with the GFS model)

Does look like there is quite a snap of cold though:

 
00z trying its hardest with a sprinkling of wintery options for Christmas day - so far at least there is limited movement away from a wintery scenario but little clarity as to what. With varying takes on patchy snow over the country.
 
It feels weird seeing santa hats on the beach when it feels like a warm spring day

IMG-20211218-122318.jpg
 
Models persistently coming up with a prolonged wintery spell but utterly falling flat on their faces trying to resolve what and when.

If this came off it would be um interesting:

e9iooH6.png


Most likely with the rest of the setup very heavy sleet rather than snow though.

Dunno what to make of this either - though it is some way out and the models again seem to be falling flat on their faces trying to resolve the details:

YEwo3Pd.png


(Short explanation the warmer patches displace cold from the arctic towards the south but where is another matter - video linked above explains some of what is going on there).

If any of the non-mild options came off it would likely produce notable weather but I think it quite possible there is a problem with the data or processing, despite some similar cross model behaviour/agreement, each iteration is just so inconsistent compared to what came before and after it.
 
200sols said:
That would be epic, name change for @Rroff to Santa if this comes off :cry:
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00Z already changed it up - shifting that outcome to Tuesday.

sHFc05N.png


10hPa and 1hPa from the end of the GFS 00z run - best summed up I think by "go home GFS you're drunk".

EDIT: Cross model agreement on some kind of weird, extreme, wintery stuff:


Dunno what to make of any of this TBH none of the data taken as a whole really makes any sense - I'm still thinking someone has stuffed something up somewhere.

EDIT: Someone's comment on the netweather forums: "SLEETY: Awesome ECM in the semi-reliable upto 144hours then it loses the plot,and is fit for the bin."
 
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bingham67 said:
BBC seem to have sprung 360 and gone for way more mild forecast
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BBC seems to be doubling down on mild and at times rainy - most of the models are really struggling though with a multitude of different evolutions of wintery weather but constantly changing when, where and how - but notably it is always being pushed back.

Meteo/Met forecast seem to hinge a lot on an area of low pressure in the Atlantic winning out but most of the other models show it losing any real potency to affect our weather.
 
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Rroff said:
00Z already changed it up - shifting that outcome to Tuesday.

sHFc05N.png


10hPa and 1hPa from the end of the GFS 00z run - best summed up I think by "go home GFS you're drunk".

EDIT: Cross model agreement on some kind of weird, extreme, wintery stuff:


Dunno what to make of any of this TBH none of the data taken as a whole really makes any sense - I'm still thinking someone has stuffed something up somewhere.

EDIT: Someone's comment on the netweather forums: "SLEETY: Awesome ECM in the semi-reliable upto 144hours then it loses the plot,and is fit for the bin."
Click to expand...
Second pic looks like a huge penis is attacking us. Very disturbing.
 
Watched a video on YouTube about Yakutsk in Siberia, they don't close the schools unless the temperature drops below -54c. There's no running water and unless you have a heated garage, you keep your engine running or it'll freeze.:D
 
Looks like a bit of a battleground scenario developing over Sunday - with the low off the Atlantic making a huge difference between potentially more towards the extremes of wet and mild or wintery.

As before looks like the Met, etc. are hazarding on it holding up, most of the other models are showing it having a weaker influence.

EDIT: 00z GFS now backing off the wintery forecast - be interesting to see what the updates through the day bring. ECM also completely flipped - despite hardly any hints over the last few days of the scenario it is presenting now. I'm still hazarding on the side of someone messing something up somewhere.
 
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Just had to mow my lawn (to about 2 inch) in my summer crocs what is this crazyness, also top the pond up, anyone know how to make frogs stay? Would tap water put them off ?

IMG-20211222-102853.jpg
 
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06z GFS backing off the more wintery scenario hard now, ECM largely showing a milder setup and GEM sitting in the middle between colder and mild :s

Arpege which I've generally found more or less correct is mostly showing it being damp and cool with some snow, mostly over high ground, working its way south over the 26th into 27th.

EDIT: Huge amount still depends on that low in the Atlantic though and how it evolves over the next few days.
 
Winter is now here! And it brought -2c and a hard frost this morning. Brrrrr! Didn't bike into work, decided to stay home.
 
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