Poll: Winter 2021/22 - Will we see lots of snow?

What will we see this winter?

  • Snow blizzards and minus 50 degrees

    Votes: 60 15.5%

  • Drizzle and wind

    Votes: 241 62.4%

  • Hurricane Pancakes

    Votes: 72 18.7%

  • Highest xxxx since records began

    Votes: 78 20.2%
  • Total voters
    386
Rroff said:
13-14C and steady rain right through Christmas day :(

Nothing really on offering on the current model outputs, a couple of runs trending cold but without much support, though input data tends to become sparse at this point of the year.
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In Rotherham it's snowed for about 5 mins around 2200hrs then quickly turned to rain :(
 
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The worst part is that for the last couple years, plants have started putting out leaves early due to mild winters, only for April to absolutely kick them in the nuts. This year we had an entire month of frosts in April. The mild winters are really screwing with plant life.
 
Yep lost 2 palm trees last year, cornish problems, very mild at the moment though, the river gives a nice show come sun down

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FoxEye said:
The worst part is that for the last couple years, plants have started putting out leaves early due to mild winters, only for April to absolutely kick them in the nuts. This year we had an entire month of frosts in April. The mild winters are really screwing with plant life.
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I thought I'd lost a few plants last spring, but they showed remarkable resilience and grew back good as new.:cool:
 
FoxEye said:
The worst part is that for the last couple years, plants have started putting out leaves early due to mild winters, only for April to absolutely kick them in the nuts. This year we had an entire month of frosts in April. The mild winters are really screwing with plant life.
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And hedgehogsv hibernation plans!
 
Good support for a inflow of cold from the north around the 5th but with the general setup I'd hazard that will result in a huge contrast between high and low ground and be cool and miserable for most rather than cold and wintery.

GEM being a touch optimistic? seems to be picking up on some features other models aren't currently:

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UK Met seems to be slightly better for cold than the other models.

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The ensembles are a little crazy - looks like miserable cold rain turning into miserable freezing rain/sleet with maybe some heavy snow for high ground:

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These models seem like nonsense tbh, anything more than a few hours ahead and they basically predict a heatwave or deep freeze and everything in between.
 
200sols said:
These models seem like nonsense tbh, anything more than a few hours ahead and they basically predict a heatwave or deep freeze and everything in between.
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I don't really rate the GFS but it is easiest to access and easier to digest - you need to look at a wider range of data to really have any idea how likely an outcome is.

These days I don't hold much chance of wintery outcomes, regardless of the complexities potentially bringing it in unless 850hPa (air mass above us) is -10C or below and the jet stream displaced from us.
 
Wet and miserable today. I miss the winters of my youth. Not the ice on the inside of the bedroom windows though, I don't miss that.
 
chaparral said:
OK i just come back from being outside and can confirm there is no snow :cry::(
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GFS wanting to bring a heavy band of snow in for the south Tuesday morning:

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But not so eager to support the conditions overall it would realistically need!?!? not sure what is going on there or whether I'm just not understanding the weather well enough hah. Maybe that superficially looking like a channel low but not really popping up on some runs is the source of it.

Some of the other models are slightly onboard with the cold conditions, but not really supporting snow like that.

UK Met having none of it really with just some very localised snow over high ground.
 
LOL

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Yeah right - bare in mind this is from the people responsible for many of the main modelling of climate change (OK a bit of a different kettle of fish) hope they do a bit better job there.
 
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