Winter 2023/24 - It's FREEZING!

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Day three of Spring and it's a balmy 14.9 out there this morning folks. Today's high seems to be a modest 17 with an overnight low of 13 (up from 12 yesterday) so watch out for that if you're out and about.

And that's all the weather :)
 
I think someone got their socks mixed up in the wash
It's fine, he's got another pair like it in the drawer.
She's a good hen. 3 years free this November if she makes it! She won't sit on my gfs lap!
My other hen won't ever come near me! :D
Chickens can be great pets and very varied personalities.
We used to have some and they ranged from the very timid ones and the ones that basically tried to avoid being touched at all, to the ones that would come over for a petting and treat.
A couple of ours were great escape artists and one used to somehow manage to always get up high in a tree come dusk rather than the house.
 
I'm looking forward to seeing what the models say so I can laugh when they're terribly, terribly wrong :cry:

I say this in jest because I do enjoy these threads but those long term models are a waste of space, they're basically speculation and generally rubbish.
Really really warm today theres a heatwave on this week got to be the hottest cold winter on record! They're talking about hitting 30c! Its pretty funny really.

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It's fine, he's got another pair like it in the drawer.

Chickens can be great pets and very varied personalities.
We used to have some and they ranged from the very timid ones and the ones that basically tried to avoid being touched at all, to the ones that would come over for a petting and treat.
A couple of ours were great escape artists and one used to somehow manage to always get up high in a tree come dusk rather than the house.

For sure. Same experience. Had hens for as long as I can remember (when able to) and they are different. Every one. Some never get tame. And some won't leave you alone!
 
First, looking at the seasonal average for Europe, we can see another weak snowfall forecast identical to the ECMWF. Most of the continent is forecast to have less snowfall than normal, except for some central and northern parts.


:(
 
This is really something now. What a signal we have. As @northwestsnow has alluded to the ecm has quadrupled down on its major -NAO / euro trough combo. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. This is the strongest, most consistent signal for a cold winter pattern I’ve seen since 2010. Not sure why so many people come on to this thread to say long Range forecasting is pointless. It’s low skill yes but a signal is a signal and this one is strong.

Like that deep blue over the NE Pacific. Makes a change to the dreaded red blob we have got used to seeing on the winter output.

The -NAO signature looks good here and at least it looks like it isn't west based.

Its also clear to see the EP El Nino signature here with the blues in the eastern tropical Pacific and the oranges over the western Pacific and Indonesia.
Well this is certainly getting my attention now!!thats a few updates in a row where ecm has shown a very cold and snowy winter!!!this september update is the strongest signal yet!!!thanks for the update @northwestsnow❄️!!!!


 
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Despite some of the more clear cut pattern changes, etc. there is still a lot of wildcards - some of the distribution of heat and/or where oceans are cooling or warming, etc. aren't really well understood in the context of this El Nino change and with poor or non-existent historic analogues to go by.

Overall there are very strong signals for a cooler and drier winter than average, but I'm not disheartened by the indications of lower than average snowfall potential as the setup should work towards rather than against, as has been the case in recent years, snow when it is in the offering and it looks like areas of high pressure should more often be in the right place for us with this setup.
 
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