Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[tamzzy]

Not when it literally detracts a chunk of your countries young men and creates a socio-cultural bottleneck that drags your country down, Russia for whatever reason still doesn't acknowledge this for after multiple episodes.

Odd really.

At times, unfortunately for Russia it's counting for bugger all.

More russian brides for the rest of the world
(If they are allowed to leave Russia ofc)

 

[Jokester]

As a comparison to Russia in Afghanistan, they’ve already lost in 2 weeks a comparable amount of soldiers lives to what they lost in 10+ years of the war in Afghanistan.

 

[arknor]

He didn't say it had never happened, he said that for his generation it's very alien. The fact that you have to go back 27 years to find the last significant conflict in Europe (when William was still a young kid) only proves his point.

2014 says hello

 

[EddScott]

No. He must endure. He cannot afford to make any concessions.

As much as I'm sure the Ukrainian people don't want to lose any territory, losing the DPR and LPR and backing off from NATO - in favour of close EU, is the least worst option.

That or Ukraine is left a flattened graveyeard.

 

[Firestar_3x]

More russian brides for the rest of the world
(If they are allowed to leave Russia ofc)

Would you ever trust your food or drink again?

 

[Goksly]

I do wish Ukraine would just let Crimea and the two republics go even if it is rationalising Putin's ******** as well as being demoralising it at least offers an off ramp.

The problem comes when that isn't sufficient, but who knows what their acceptable compromise is.

And then what? In 10 years time Putin thinks the "new" east coast of Ukraine also wants to be liberated. They can't concede anything now; it's gone too far. The only thing they could concede is not joining Nato (because being on the "front" Nato would do what they've done again) but Russia to give back all land (maybe except Crimea) and pay for rebuild.

 

[StriderX]

And then what? In 10 years time Putin thinks the "new" east coast of Ukraine also wants to be liberated. They can't concede anything now; it's gone too far. The only thing they could concede is not joining Nato (because being on the "front" Nato would do what they've done again) but Russia to give back all land (maybe except Crimea) and pay for rebuild.

Well if the winter war is anything go by they'll lose more territory if they continue regardless.

I get that they can't really publicly concede anything and they shouldn't until they feel the Russian forces have been dismantled enough that continuing the war is nigh impossible without Russia going full war economy, but if Russia wants those republics they can easily do so.

E: To mitigate that I suppose there's a possibility for keeping those lands, but I'm not sure how it could be done whilst ensuring Russia stays out of it without essentially giving up sovereignty of the rest of the country through a Russian stooge.

 

[Turn]

Erdoğan speaking Live:

Erdoğan:
- Ukraine and Russia are neighbours, conflict between them upset us
- If world didn’t keep silent while Russia annexed Crimea, there would be no crisis in Ukraine now
- Ukraine left alone against Russia
Source: https://twitter.com/TRTWorldNow/status/1502259244875362310

*Mayor of Ukraine’s Odessa: Russia May Try to Surround City and Carry Out Possible Naval Landing
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1502260718762180608

 

[Hagar]

Well if the winter war is anything go by they'll lose more territory if they continue regardless.

I get that they can't really publicly concede anything and they shouldn't until they feel the Russian forces have been dismantled enough that continuing the war is nigh impossible without Russia going full war economy, but if Russia wants those republics they can easily do so.

Only need to wait for the inevitable discontent occurring within Russia. Putin will be fighting for survival at home and not too worried about his special wars. He must fail and be seen to do so badly.

 

[Turn]

*Mayor of Ukraine’s Odessa: Russia May Try to Surround City and Carry Out Possible Naval Landing
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1502260718762180608

*Mayor of Ukraine’s Odessa Says Russia May Go via Transdniestria to Surround Odessa

~For reference:

 

[Destination]

Erdoğan:
- Ukraine and Russia are neighbours, conflict between them upset us
- If world didn’t keep silent while Russia annexed Crimea, there would be no crisis in Ukraine now
- Ukraine left alone against Russia
Source: https://twitter.com/TRTWorldNow/status/1502259244875362310

All true for once

 

[Turn]

Erdoğan:
- Ukraine and Russia are neighbours, conflict between them upset us
- If world didn’t keep silent while Russia annexed Crimea, there would be no crisis in Ukraine now
- Ukraine left alone against Russia

Erdoğan:
- International system once again failed during Ukraine crisis
- UN structure is unjust, no democracy among members
- Those speaking out structural failures at UN are silenced
https://twitter.com/TRTWorldNow/status/1502259244875362310
https://twitter.com/TRTWorldNow/status/1502261264692752386

 

[Sankari]

As much as I'm sure the Ukrainian people don't want to lose any territory, losing the DPR and LPR and backing off from NATO - in favour of close EU, is the least worst option.

That or Ukraine is left a flattened graveyeard.

No, it's one of the worst options, because it only emboldens Putin to push harder for more, and turn Ukraine into a flattened graveyard a little later.

At a minimum Ukraine will have to recognise Crimea, PRL and PRD as regions of Russia imo.

If that happens, we might as well tell Putin he can keep any country he invades.

2014 says hello

I said 'significant conflict.' You cannot seriously be pretending that the 2014 conflict in Donbas is equivalent to the Bosnian genocide of the mid 1990s. That's like comparing baby peas to giant pumpkins.

Erdoğan:
- Ukraine and Russia are neighbours, conflict between them upset us
- If world didn’t keep silent while Russia annexed Crimea, there would be no crisis in Ukraine now
- Ukraine left alone against Russia
Source: https://twitter.com/TRTWorldNow/status/1502259244875362310

Erdogan in sensible comment shocker! I hope he puts his money where his mouth is.

 

[Turn]

*Ukraine’s President Zelensky: Ukraine Has Reached a Strategic Turning Point in the War.
*Ukraine’s President Zelensky: It Will Take Time and Patience to Achieve Victory.
*Ukraine’s President Zelensky: President Says Russia Is Deploying Syrian Mercenaries
*Ukraine’s President Zelensky: If War Continues It Means More Sanctions Are Needed From Ukraine’s Partners
*Ukraine's President Zelensky: Stronger Moves Needed From European Union
*Ukraine's President Zelensky: Russia Should Be Punished for Firing at Humanitarian Corridors
*Ukraine's President Zelensky: Urges Start of Spring Sowing Despite War

"Ukrainians are proud people who always defend their land, and will not give the occupier a single piece of this land, not a single percent of their freedom." - Zelensky addresses the nation
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1502262480260714498

~going away for a bit

 

[EddScott]

No, it's one of the worst options, because it only emboldens Putin to push harder for more, and turn Ukraine into a flattened graveyard a little later.

Not if agreements are put in place first. Also, "Western" Ukraine being left alone to seek closer ties to EU would also be able to arm itself properly. Ukraine wouldn't need to join NATO.

Right now, neither side is going to back down, neither side is quite sure whose winning. Putin isn't going to be removed internally so some kind of deal has to be made. He also isn't going to just withdraw as things haven't gone as expected. He will just escalate.

 

[SPG]

Exactly why nothing should be done yet. It's only been 2 weeks (I say that if it's no hell enough over their) but sanctions have not even bit. We need more sanctions as it's the only give we can do when it's comes to negotiations.

 

[The Funktopus]

You don't just build a LNG plant with no planning

Honestly.

You have an irrational hatred for the EU, just say it, no need to cover it up, don't be so woke

Well, there are FSRU’s, floating storage and regasification units, essentially an LNG carrier with added equipment on deck for processing liquid natural gas back into gas, and feeding it into a national grid. All the receiving terminal would really need to be is a jetty to moor the thing to and a pipeline connection to the grid. Some berth’s also feature a flare stack for dealing with excess gas, and an electricity supply for the FSRU, but these are ocean going ships with their own generators capable of supplying their needs, if need be. Look at an FSRU called ‘Independence’ in Klaipeda, Lithuania for instance.

Incidentally, Germany commissioning some FSRU’s would be quite handy for me in my line of work.

 

[Custor]

All true for once

As the world didn’t act about Turkey invading Syria….Russia thought … why not us too?

What sanctions?

 

[Harlequin]

I'm honestly not sure if the Russians have the capacity to keep the artillery supplied for sustained, large scale barrages.

They seem to be having issues with supplying food and fuel to their troops, and apparently their logistics corps is about half the size of the equivalent US/Western one, whilst a single barrage from one of their rocket vehicles uses a full truck load.
Their logistics setup from what I understand is designed to be working in conjunction with nearby railway resupply not advancing into another country and relying on the road network to keep units supplied, so they've got less vehicles dedicated to resupply than the US, whilst at the same time they're far more "consumable" heavy than the US due to their reliance on artillery, the end result is that it's much harder to keep their heavy/long distance stuff stocked up. That's before you consider that the vehicles carrying the supplies are basically unarmoured sitting ducks to anyone with a fairly light weapons, let alone people with stuff designed to take out armoured targets and you get a situation where every supply vehicle hit massively impacts the ability to carry on.
Apparently their fuel supply situation is even worse because they have even fewer bowsers in comparison to the US, again because their doctrine calls for laying things like fuel pipelines or rail supply to relatively near the front, so every time the Ukrainians take one out the effect on the Russians is amplified as it not only affects the front line fighting vehicles, but the ability to keep the supply vehicles running.

Apparently the Russians also do "push" logistics where the commanders at base decide what is needed according to the plan and send it forward, which is great if things are going to plan, but it means that if they're not, or even if it's going well but you use more of something than planned you can end up without it until command know, acknowledge and deal with it, the US (and much of the west) have much more flexibility with units requesting supplies and getting them as a high priority. It seems to be an offshoot of the way the western/Russian doctrine differs in things like artillery and air support requests where in the west it's often the case that someone right on the front line can call for it*, whilst in Russia it requires higher authority.

Basically from what I understand the Russians are in a bad place to maintain artillery barrages even if the Ukrainians only had light weapons, as they started out without enough of a supply train (in the area) to keep it up, and the Ukrainians seem to have been paying special attention to that supply chain.

The cynic in me suspects part of the reason they've been doing local "cease fires" the last few days is it gives them a few hours at least in which to move supplies up to the artillery, and for them to get ready for the next heavy barrage.

Also iirc Kiev was rebuilt after WW2 specifically to act as a fort/slow down invasions, with very large numbers of bunkers/reinforced hold outs which is very different to the sorts of areas the Russians have flattened in Chechnya and Syria, they might be able do massive damage and kill vast numbers of civilians who are caught out in the open, but potentially still have a lot of armed defenders left operating (and those would be armed defenders who have had access to enough anti tank weapons to take out armoured vehicles in the open, let alone in conditions that were designed to hostile to invading armour).



*They're trained to do so, and trusted to know where and when it's needed, and the risks if they're calling for it to be near them.

Add to this, the Ukranian forces actively targetting logistics (ala western training). Wear down the enemies ability to fight

 

[bris]

As long as Putin is still in power they will keep pushing, they have the numbers to chip away slowly but surely whatever the cost to them.

I don't know what he expects to gain though as the west will not lift sanctions if they try to occupy Ukrain or put in a puppet goverment.

There is no end game for him here and he must now know that.

One possible scenario for him very sadly to say is the assination of Zelensky, they could then say the Neo nazis in power have been eliminated, job done and home they go.