Caporegime
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Insulting the mods is a very dangerous game
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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Soldato
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It's not an insult, it's an observation of my experiences with them, I call them lazy because they will at times delete or edit posts without giving any reason why and they have a habit of complaining about doing their moderating at weekends
They're a lot better than Reddit moderators though
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Soldato
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They're not serious- timewasting is part of their long game.
Russia can (probably) continue to absorb losses for some time. They don't need to negotiate quite yet, but offering that possibility helps them weaken the coalition's solidarity and split the pack.
If they can drag the war out further, the appetite for supporting Ukraine is likely to decrease, as costs pile up and stalemate holds - I think you made this point yourself earlier today. Stalemate is benefiting Russia at the moment.
Ukraine need to reestablish momentum on the battlefield to weaken russia's negotiating position and increase internal pressure on them to negotiate.
Soldato
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Putin is far more dangerous than a pedophile and I never named anyone. I said “some of the views expressed on this subject”.
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*Xi: China Has Always Taken an Objective and Impartial Position in Relation to Situation in Ukraine
*Xi: China Has Made Active Efforts to Promote Reconciliation and Peace Negotiations in Relation to Ukraine
*Xi: Peaceful Resolution to Ukraine Needs to Comply with UN Charter, Respect Security Concerns of Involved Sides
*Xi: China and Russia Pursue Independent Foreign Policy and Consider Bilateral Relations Between China and Russia As a Key Priority
*Xi: Chinese Peace Plan on Ukraine Settlement Reflects the Unity of Views in the World Community
*Xi: China’s Proposal on Ukraine Serves to Neutralise Consequences of the Crisis and Promotes a Political Settlement; “Complex Problems Do Not Have Simple Solutions”
https://rg.ru/2023/03/20/uporno-dvi...-i-sovmestnogo-razvitiia-kitaia-i-rossii.html
*Xi: China Has Made Active Efforts to Promote Reconciliation and Peace Negotiations in Relation to Ukraine
*Xi: Peaceful Resolution to Ukraine Needs to Comply with UN Charter, Respect Security Concerns of Involved Sides
*Xi: China and Russia Pursue Independent Foreign Policy and Consider Bilateral Relations Between China and Russia As a Key Priority
*Xi: Chinese Peace Plan on Ukraine Settlement Reflects the Unity of Views in the World Community
*Xi: China’s Proposal on Ukraine Serves to Neutralise Consequences of the Crisis and Promotes a Political Settlement; “Complex Problems Do Not Have Simple Solutions”
https://rg.ru/2023/03/20/uporno-dvi...-i-sovmestnogo-razvitiia-kitaia-i-rossii.html
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Caporegime
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It's interesting to see how Russian society tolerates such huge mortality rates. When they run out of ethnic minorities and prisoners I don't think they're going to find as many willing volunteers.
Poland is being rather "based" again... love to see it! 
That really ought to cause some in Moscow to take note... if that idea gains support just among Eastern European nations, nations with modern fighter jets, modern tanks, plenty of HIMARS... well it makes the mobilisaiton of 400k troops completely futile... even if Putin were to "succeed" in a second attempt at invading from Belarus, he'd not only suffer huge casualties and more destroyed military equipment but then he'd potentially face an expanded conflict with a load of fresh, well equipped and well trained Eastern European troops piling into the country and causing havoc in Russian lines.... Ditto to the use of tactical nukes, that risks Poland and others piling in too.
It's pretty much a no win situation for him now... best case he can maybe hold onto Crimea and/or a bit of the East though realistically even that is at risk for Putin as Ukraine will want to attempt a spring/summer offensive and try to pile into the East and likely down to the Azov sea and try to cut off Russian forces operating north of Crimea.
That really ought to cause some in Moscow to take note... if that idea gains support just among Eastern European nations, nations with modern fighter jets, modern tanks, plenty of HIMARS... well it makes the mobilisaiton of 400k troops completely futile... even if Putin were to "succeed" in a second attempt at invading from Belarus, he'd not only suffer huge casualties and more destroyed military equipment but then he'd potentially face an expanded conflict with a load of fresh, well equipped and well trained Eastern European troops piling into the country and causing havoc in Russian lines.... Ditto to the use of tactical nukes, that risks Poland and others piling in too.
It's pretty much a no win situation for him now... best case he can maybe hold onto Crimea and/or a bit of the East though realistically even that is at risk for Putin as Ukraine will want to attempt a spring/summer offensive and try to pile into the East and likely down to the Azov sea and try to cut off Russian forces operating north of Crimea.
The nuclear bit is where this gets tricky. Technically if Poland enters the war of its own volition and Russia nuked say Warsaw NATO isn't obliged to do anything, would Putin roll the dice on that? I wouldn't want to call it.
Caporegime
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I could be horribly wrong, but after a year of sabre rattling, I’m now convinced all russias nuclear threats are empty ones.
They're evil but they’re not mad
I think people underestimate how thin the line is - the main deterrent to their use is how much Putin's arse would be on the line for doing so - if they could get away with using them they would - many of those in Russian top circles don't value life as you or I do.
I genuinely dont think the line is that thin. I think push come to shove, Russia wouldnt use Nuclear weapons unless they had brigades rolling across the border on a march towards Moscow. Or if Nuclear weapons were deployed against them.
If Poland were to enter the conflict of their own volition, I suspect they would just spread Russias resources thinner and be subject to air strikes themselves. I suspect if Poland were to get involved then so too would Belarus.
I was talking about tactical nukes on Ukraine, but Russia would be pretty silly to nuke Poland as they'd very likely end up with WW3 regardless of any obligation... a big nuclear attack would impact other European countries and perhaps would trigger article 5.
I know on the tactical nukes. But Poland entering the war would be a major headache for Russia and personally I'm not convinced they wouldn't roll the dice on using nuclear weapons to try and remove that threat - if there aren't harsh consequences for Poland doing it, as you mentioned, that is going to have all the other countries who remember what it was like under Russia piling in.
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I'm not saying they wouldn't but there are harsh consequences to Russia doing that too... if they use tactical nukes on Poland they have the same issue as with Ukraine... NATO steps in and puts in a no-fly zone or attacks Russian units responsible, China and India cut them off etc. The US has already made clear in private what they'll do if Russia were to use tactical nukes and China and India have very likely made clear their positon that any use of nukes is a red line for them too.
If they use regular nukes then they risk all-out nuclear war, MAD etc. or at the very least they likely then turn it into a conventional WW3, NATO would have to respond which would result in them being kicked out of Ukraine and Kaliningrad very rapidly + the Belarus regime likely toppled.
If they use regular nukes then they risk all-out nuclear war, MAD etc. or at the very least they likely then turn it into a conventional WW3, NATO would have to respond which would result in them being kicked out of Ukraine and Kaliningrad very rapidly + the Belarus regime likely toppled.
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Poland is being rather "based" again... love to see it!
That really ought to cause some in Moscow to take note... if that idea gains support just among Eastern European nations, nations with modern fighter jets, modern tanks, plenty of HIMARS... well it makes the mobilisaiton of 400k troops completely futile... even if Putin were to "succeed" in a second attempt at invading from Belarus, he'd not only suffer huge casualties and more destroyed military equipment but then he'd potentially face an expanded conflict with a load of fresh, well equipped and well trained Eastern European troops piling into the country and causing havoc in Russian lines.... Ditto to the use of tactical nukes, that risks Poland and others piling in too.
It's pretty much a no win situation for him now... best case he can maybe hold onto Crimea and/or a bit of the East though realistically even that is at risk for Putin as Ukraine will want to attempt a spring/summer offensive and try to pile into the East and likely down to the Azov sea and try to cut off Russian forces operating north of Crimea.
Moscow has already being claiming they are fighting Polish mercenaries in Ukraine and that Poland plans to invade Ukraine; now they will say: look here, see we were right Poland's going to invade Ukraine, we are just defending Ukraine, please believe me
Associate
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I'd imagine 'foreign aid' is really bribes for XYZ but I could be wrong
Poland is being rather "based" again... love to see it!
That really ought to cause some in Moscow to take note... if that idea gains support just among Eastern European nations, nations with modern fighter jets, modern tanks, plenty of HIMARS... well it makes the mobilisaiton of 400k troops completely futile... even if Putin were to "succeed" in a second attempt at invading from Belarus, he'd not only suffer huge casualties and more destroyed military equipment but then he'd potentially face an expanded conflict with a load of fresh, well equipped and well trained Eastern European troops piling into the country and causing havoc in Russian lines.... Ditto to the use of tactical nukes, that risks Poland and others piling in too.
It's pretty much a no win situation for him now... best case he can maybe hold onto Crimea and/or a bit of the East though realistically even that is at risk for Putin as Ukraine will want to attempt a spring/summer offensive and try to pile into the East and likely down to the Azov sea and try to cut off Russian forces operating north of Crimea.
Realistically if Poland was to enter the conflict in any sort of official context then I think we'd genuinely see an escalation into a world war. Russia would struggle to survive with even more adversaries, therefore the message domestically would be very easy to sell to the population. I think the chance of a nuclear exchange at that point would be almost inevitable.
As it is I think the "west" so far has played it clever in the use of escalation in terms of being able to give more and more advanced weapons and this should be sufficient over the medium term to repell.
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