Taiwan and China thread.

[Mrwong]

China declares it is ready to smash 'any form of Taiwan independence'

China's military shared an animated clip which showed how it would launch an all-out attack of Taiwan, striking with missiles from land and sea before conducting its invasion

www.dailymail.co.uk

When the War starts I will not take part, the west gave our tech advantage away for coins.

 

[Mrwong]

This is a joke. For amateur arm generals they will be super impressed by all those missiles, wow missile make big boom go boom.

And what they are forgetting is you can't invade a country by bombing it. The allies tried in ww2 and it didn't work, they had to enter Germany on foot. The Americans tried in the gulf war with the largest air dominance campaign in human history and it didn't work, they had to enter by tank. Russia tried in 2022/2023 by bombing Ukraine's infrastructure and it hasn't worked, they'll have to get to Kyiv on foot. And it wouldn't work here either.

China can do as many bombing drills as it wishes and they all mean nothing and they know it. If they want Taiwan they will need to land a million soldiers on the beaches and until they demonstrate They can do that, they don't have **** and they know it.

It is an island, cut routes in or out, bomb the hell out of the island, good chance they would give up, very different to Ukraine. Remember the Chinese are not as dumb as the Russians.

 

[Mrwong]

I mean just the idea that the same trump who blew up Syria, killed an Iranian General, started a Trade war with China and hit Russia with massive sanctions wouldn't have done anything for Ukraine is laughable. Look, I know that the hatred is so deeply ingrained that if Trump cured cancer, ended hunger and fixed climate control all overnight you'd still hate him and I don't care about that, but sometimes the reality you live in really needs to join-up to the one that rest of us live in once in a while, LOL!

Agree.

 

[Rroff]

This is a joke. For amateur arm generals they will be super impressed by all those missiles, wow missile make big boom go boom.

And what they are forgetting is you can't invade a country by bombing it. The allies tried in ww2 and it didn't work, they had to enter Germany on foot. The Americans tried in the gulf war with the largest air dominance campaign in human history and it didn't work, they had to enter by tank. Russia tried in 2022/2023 by bombing Ukraine's infrastructure and it hasn't worked, they'll have to get to Kyiv on foot. And it wouldn't work here either.

China can do as many bombing drills as it wishes and they all mean nothing and they know it. If they want Taiwan they will need to land a million soldiers on the beaches and until they demonstrate They can do that, they don't have **** and they know it.

China have the capability to scale up to massive missile strikes quickly (many many times larger than what Russia has conducted against Ukraine in total) - they could end any modern way of life on Taiwan and severely degrade any military capability - it doesn't gain them anything other than global condemnation but that doesn't mean they wouldn't do it necessarily. Follow that up with a naval/air blockade and Taiwan would effectively be ended as a country and in a huge humanitarian crisis.

 

[bjorkiii]

Surely that will destroy china too? Who will have anything to do with them regarding trade etc? I dare say we would have a nuclear show also.

 

[Efour]

I don't think the west is ready to go cold Turkey on Chinese made "everything" right now.
Russians are mental but Chinese are the mentalist.
I'm just amazed we are now living the time where it's us Vs china ... That came around pretty fast, I remember it being the future war we talked about in the 90s.

I don't see china backing down. What would they accept as a compromise.

 

[Rroff]

I don't think the west is ready to go cold Turkey on Chinese made "everything" right now.
Russians are mental but Chinese are the mentalist.
I'm just amazed we are now living the time where it's us Vs china ... That came around pretty fast, I remember it being the future war we talked about in the 90s.

I don't see china backing down. What would they accept as a compromise.

Frankly I don't rate China's chances much in a real war as long as those opposed to them are prepared and not intimidated by China's potential size and belligerence - they do not train to have the autonomy most Western forces do so can be significantly blunted by attacking that.

 

[Terminal_Boy]

Take out or severely degrade China’s local C3I capability and the PLAN would be sailing around in circles like drunken ducks as the CCP has never favoured commanders making independent decisions.

 

[alchal]

Frankly I don't rate China's chances much in a real war as long as those opposed to them are prepared and not intimidated by China's potential size and belligerence - they do not train to have the autonomy most Western forces do so can be significantly blunted by attacking that.

A bit like we are with Russia and the fear of escalation.

I'd like to think the west will learn some lessons from Ukraine, but I doubt they will.

 

[bingham67]

Just hope if this kicks off civilians will be given shelter somewhere as we know by Ukraine the civilian death takes it toll like in most wars, that was an annoying thing for me with Ukraine war I thought all these support groups were very slow to react to get civilians out, I mean Russia wasnt attacking or nowhere near parts of Ukraine for ages civilians could have got out.

I remember watching mum and her three kids blown up by shelling in Ukraine last year they was walking down the road with bags packed and rolling suitcase trying to get out.

 

[Rroff]

Just hope if this kicks off civilians will be given shelter somewhere as we know by Ukraine the civilian death takes it toll like in most wars, that was an annoying thing for me with Ukraine war I thought all these support groups were very slow to react to get civilians out, I mean Russia wasnt attacking or nowhere near parts of Ukraine for ages civilians could have got out.

I remember watching mum and her three kids blown up by shelling in Ukraine last year they was walking down the road with bags packed and rolling suitcase trying to get out.

Unfortunately a lot of people who don't want to believe it is real until it is and/or somehow think it won't happen if they ignore it, etc. i.e. evacuating civilians would make it more likely to happen :s

Also a lot of civilians don't want to leave until they are literally dodging bullets.

 

[Chojin]

Unless China has also invented the ability to transport millions of men & materiel out of thin air then there is no hiding that sort of buildup, so yes of course they could perform air strikes but how useful is that without the ground invasion to quickly follow? Also it's morbid to say but Ukraine is the testing ground on how quickly USA (and a lesser extent other NATO countries) can scale up production after 20+ years of asymmetrical warfare.

The Iraq 2003 invasion needed 160k troops thanks to shock and awe but I get your point. I don't think China would do anything without being confident of having a production advantage so they are getting useful insight there. The Ukraine war has shown once it gets to the attrition stage then that becomes key.

The issue I see is when there are too many distractions then it's an opportune moment for China. The Ukraine war is a gift for China. If say Argentina started messing around with Falkland Islands then UK would be completely distracted. France wouldn't do anything either with the way Macron operates.

 

[Mrwong]

Take out or severely degrade China’s local C3I capability and the PLAN would be sailing around in circles like drunken ducks as the CCP has never favoured commanders making independent decisions.

Who is going to take it out, You know they will have a backup. I wonder if we in the West are dumber, China are not like the Russians.
The West gave everything and more to allow China get its technology up to speed , they have more production facilities than the west the list goes on. They will have a much bigger navy than the US.

“The United States Navy is not going to be able to match the PLAN missile for missile,” Gilday said.

And if the US Navy can’t match China’s missile for missile, or ship for ship, Tangredi wonders where it can find an edge."

We the west gave up our advantage.

btw China will go to war, the signs are there.

Bigger Fleets Win

In naval warfare, the side with the most ships almost always wins.

www.usni.org

I love this
"But then there’s an American advantage that might matter even more. China has no dependable allies. The United States has many. " I think the US is misguided on that count.

(wireless keyboard)

 

[Chojin]

I love this
"But then there’s an American advantage that might matter even more. China has no dependable allies. The United States has many. " I think the US is misguided on that count.

Agree the sanctions on Russia after the Ukraine invasion gave a good indication on how much influence the West has. It's not even a case of who the allies are but rather who is willing to turn a blind eye. Large economies like India continued to buy cheap oil from Russia.

When you count up the population of all the "pariah" states plus all the ones dependent on China or willing to turn a blind eye, you probably end up with 4+ billion people. And these people aren't living in mud huts anymore. They are educated and have internet connections, capable of doing the service economy work that the West currently does.

This reminds of the meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping Feb 2022 when they talked about a new economic world order. I think they were talking about a complete paradigm shift.

China has the ability to make some big once in a century type moves and I think Taiwan is one of the them, and pumping up the yuan as a reserve currency is another.

 

[AndrewNR]

Surely that will destroy china too? Who will have anything to do with them regarding trade etc? I dare say we would have a nuclear show also.

I guess we'll just start paying 10x the price for tat [built by Dave] we don't need instead of shipping it over...sure everyone will accept that.

 

[GGizmo]

It'll be interesting to see the calibre of the CCP soldier.

We've seen with Russia that people can get an inflated ego when living in an echo chamber.

A good tactic is to talk so big that you don't have to fight.

 

[StriderX]

Well one of their generals is literally a nepotist gift considering his mental disabilities, not a great start but then again their only tactic will be a zerg rush so why bother putting up someone more experienced? Plus they haven't had a war in decades... I doubt there is anyone more experienced tbf.

 

[Rroff]

Situation with North Korea, not really worth starting a thread on, is getting far more worrying IMO than is generally being talked about, hard to know how serious it is being taken behind the scenes. Persistent loss of diplomatic channels and having to go via China for diplomatic means has historically been a very concerning sign though it may simply be a technical issue or some other less concerning explanation.

 

[sanaxe1]

Situation with North Korea, not really worth starting a thread on, is getting far more worrying IMO than is generally being talked about, hard to know how serious it is being taken behind the scenes. Persistent loss of diplomatic channels and having to go via China for diplomatic means has historically been a very concerning sign though it may simply be a technical issue or some other less concerning explanation.

I can see China using North Korea as a distraction for the USA. Goading them on and offering aid. However I think North Korea are currently occupied with their war against Atlantis.

 

[potatolord]

Situation with North Korea, not really worth starting a thread on, is getting far more worrying IMO than is generally being talked about, hard to know how serious it is being taken behind the scenes. Persistent loss of diplomatic channels and having to go via China for diplomatic means has historically been a very concerning sign though it may simply be a technical issue or some other less concerning explanation.

You can probably stick Thaci's trial on the "unwelcome distractions" list, too.

That trial is going to cause all sorts of issues, whatever the result.