2022 mini-budget discussion

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n111ck said:
It’s all covered in the article which is why I posted it.

As I said this morning some of you are clearly disappointed that the pound recovered.
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Only.for those shorting it.

I would imagine people on here are disappointed it took billions to make it recover when it should never have happened rather than being disappointed it recovered.

Even at that, it's still down significantly since the start of this month so "recovery" is subjective I guess....
 
n111ck said:
It’s all covered in the article which is why I posted it.

As I said this morning some of you are clearly disappointed that the pound recovered.
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Why do you think it's over ? You do realise things can go up short term, whilst still remaining on a downward trajectory long term, it's how the market functions it's not an immediate plunge straight to the bottom and then instant recovery, it's a gradual decline over time with some ups but generally more downs and then vice versa for recovery
 
Minusorange said:
Why do you think it's over ? You do realise things can go up short term, whilst still remaining on a downward trajectory long term, it's how the market functions it's not an immediate plunge straight to the bottom and then instant recovery, it's a gradual decline over time with some ups but generally more downs and then vice versa for recovery
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Yes I do realise the markets can go up and down which is what makes those cheering about potential $ parity particularly pathetic.
 
n111ck said:
Yes I do realise the markets can go up and down which is what makes those cheering about potential $ parity particularly pathetic.
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But you don't understand general trajectory ? The £ is on a downward trajectory towards parity with $, that's undisputable, unless something magical happens to change sentiment in the £'s value
 
Minusorange said:
But you don't understand general trajectory ? The £ is on a downward trajectory towards parity with $, that's undisputable, unless something magical happens to change sentiment in the £'s value
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That was supposed to happen by the end of the year wasn’t it? That was what some were celebrating on here? We’ve heard the parity hysteria since brexit and it hasn’t happened.
 
Irish_Tom said:
And herein lies one of the issues with crowing over the "SC crowd" not making a fortune off shorting the pound.

If you want to make big money trading (FX or stocks) you need to be willing to risk big money to do so. The adage that you should never trade what you can't afford to lose is a cliché for a reason.

So even if the more financially literate forum members could predict that the pound would tank following the budget announcement, it's a whole other thing to have available capital and be prepared to potentially lose it all.

Because what might not have been quite so obvious was the BoE’s emergency QE announcement, which allowed the £ to recover. If you had open positions when it swung back (depending on your entry point) you big gains could suddenly become big loses.

And while @Dirk Diggler's example makes it sound simple, it's not quite that straightforward for retail "investors". There are other costs associated with spread betting, and wider spreads on FX trading platforms, which means you need the price movements to be bigger than the "real" price movements before you make a profit. There's a reason ~75% of retail spread betters make a loss.
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Great post, and yes I did simplify it because I just wanted to explain the raw mechanics behind it because the person who asked the question has a track record of, well I don't mean to be unkind but some are struggling a little bit with the basics.

Anyway, yes it's a lot more complicated in practice with leveraged trades etc, and it does require serious volume to make serious money - and that means serious risk. That's why I don't see any mileage in the theory that this was all a ruse in order to make their friends rich off the trading - it just isn't anywhere remotely that simple.

Sure, people close to them made a lot of money and there was no doubt some early birds involved. But to suggest that Truss and Karteng could somehow risk their careers and essentially their freedom on something like that is frankly ridiculous. What I would say though, is that they are clearly stupid enough to have been manipulated into lining up the dominoes.
 
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Dirk Diggler said:
Great post, and yes I did simplify it because I just wanted to explain the raw mechanics behind it because the person who asked the question has a track record of, well I don't mean to be unkind but some are struggling a little bit with the basics.

Anyway, yes it's a lot more complicated in practice with leveraged trades etc, and it does require serious volume to make serious money - and that means serious risk. That's why I don't see any mileage in the theory that this was all a ruse in order to make their friends rich off the trading - it just isn't anywhere remotely that simple.

Sure, people close to them made a lot of money and there was no doubt some early birds involved. But to suggest that Truss and Karteng could somehow risk their careers and essentially their freedom on something like that is frankly ridiculous. What I would say though, is that they are clearly stupid enough to have been manipulated into lining up the dominoes.
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In other words play it safe
 
Murphy said:
I'm curious, do you think paying on average £1k for that was worth it? Because i can think of a lot better things to spend a grand on.
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The whole point of the budget was growth - if that doesn’t happen then moan but the pathetic hysteria on here over the last few days makes me wonder how some people function.
 
n111ck said:
As I said this morning some of you are clearly disappointed that the pound recovered.
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I can't speak for others but personally speaking I'm the opposite of disappointed, I'm glad it's recovered somewhat. What i am however is angry that this governments ineptidue has cost me £1k just because, from what i can tell, acted like excited little children.
Slam62 said:
Well the Japanese spent 1.5 trillion yen doing the same thing
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What do that have to do with the price of eggs?
 
n111ck said:
The whole point of the budget was growth - if that doesn’t happen then moan but the pathetic hysteria on here over the last few days makes me wonder how some people function.
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I know you can read because you're able to read what you're typing, the question is why are you not reading what you're responding to. I didn't ask you what the point of the budget was, i didn't ask you about growth, i didn't ask you about whether it will happen or not, and i wasn't being hysterical.

I asked if you think paying on average £1k for that was worth it?
 
Murphy said:
I know you can read because you're able to read what you're typing, the question is why are you not reading what you're responding to. I didn't ask you what the point of the budget was, i didn't ask you about growth, i didn't ask you about whether it will happen or not, and i wasn't being hysterical.

I asked if you think paying on average £1k for that was worth it?
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Yes definitely.
 
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