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AMD on the road to recovery.

Interesting...

GPU Marketshare
With AMD earning $1.65 Billion (@51% Margins) vs Nvidia's $1.85 Billion (@66% Margins) The idea that Nvidia have 90% market share is nonsensical, These numbers come from data points like Steam Hardware Survey, apparently analysts are getting tired of things like Steam Hardware Survey as they realise they are complete and utter BS.
There seems to be some shenanigans going on with them, Nvidia push a lot of these 1650 5GB cards that aren't actually 1650's to internet cafes for very cheap and multiple Steam accounts get pinged for the Survey on the same machine, perhaps even that Nvidia systems get pinged a lot more than AMD ones....
You see something similar to this in action on Steam Hardware Survey when it comes to CPU's, AMD will take a 3 percentage point share over 3, 4, 5 months (that's millions of machines) and suddenly Intel gets a 4 percentage point jump in one month, AMD claws it back again over several months and then bang millions of Intel based systems are added to the data, over and over and over......
Analysts do, or used to use these data points to calculate how well a company is doing vs a competitor.
When you look at the actual financial results none of it adds up and people are starting to notice, the consensus is that AMD's actual marketshare vs Nvidia is around 30 to 40%. not 10%. On the CPU side its also no doubt much higher vs Intel than Steam would suggest. AMD's Zen CPU's have been outselling Intel by 2X to 5X over the last 3 years, pre-build and laptops have gone from 0 to 20% in that time too, you can't have that and AMD's Steam Market Share change by 5 percentage points, it doesn't add up.

Inventory.
Both AMD and Nvidia have more inventory right now than they usually do, AMD 2.5X Nvidia 4X, so they are not selling as well as they anticipated.
On that Nvidia are far less likely to drop prices because they are in a petition to off load that inventory to people who want workstation and data centre cards at a reduced price, AMD aren't so a price cut for us is far more likely from the AMD camp.

AMD price cuts incoming.

 
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humbug said:
Interesting...

GPU Marketshare
With AMD earning $1.65 Billion (@51% Margins) vs Nvidia's $1.85 Billion (@66% Margins) The idea that Nvidia have 90% market share is nonsensical, These numbers come from data points like Steam Hardware Survey, apparently analysts are getting tired of things like Steam Hardware Survey as they realise they are complete and utter BS.
There seems to be some shenanigans going on with them, Nvidia push a lot of these 1650 5GB cards that aren't actually 1650's to internet cafes for very cheap and multiple Steam accounts get pinged for the Survey on the same machine, perhaps even that Nvidia systems get pinged a lot more than AMD ones....
You see something similar to this in action on Steam Hardware Survey when it comes to CPU's, AMD will take a 3 percentage point share over 3, 4, 5 months (that's millions of machines) and suddenly Intel gets a 4 percentage point jump in one month, AMD claws it back again over several months and then bang millions of Intel based systems are added to the data, over and over and over......
Analysts do, or used to use these data points to calculate how well a company is doing vs a competitor.
When you look at the actual financial results none of it adds up and people are starting to notice, the consensus is that AMD's actual marketshare vs Nvidia is around 30 to 40%. not 10%. On the CPU side its also no doubt much high vs Intel than Steam would suggest. AMD's Zen CPU's have been outselling Intel by 2X to 5X over the last 3 years, pre-build and laptops have gone from 0 to 20% in that time too, you can't have that and AMD's Steam Market Share change by 5 percentage points, it doesn't add up.

Inventory.
Both AMD and Nvidia have more inventory right now than they usually do, AMD 2.5X Nvidia 4X, so they are not selling as well as they anticipated.
On that Nvidia are far less likely to drop prices because they are in a petition to off load that inventor to people who want workstation and data centre cards at a reduced price, AMD aren't so a price cut for us is far more likely from the AMD camp.

AMD price cuts incoming.

Click to expand...
I hope it’s in time for the new X3D launch but would guess they will try and offload their existing stock.
 
Sure, steam hardware surveys are far from transparent.

But I don't think you noticed the part where all the consoles were included for the gaming revenue for AMD and Nvidia.

There will be screaming and kicking before people accept total gaming revenue including the consoles as a representation of how the companies match up.

But with how much consoles dictate games these days it makes plenty of sense.
 
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Hotwired said:
Sure, steam hardware surveys are far from transparent.

But I don't think you noticed the part where all the consoles were included for the gaming revenue for AMD and Nvidia.

There will be screaming and kicking before people accept total gaming revenue including the consoles as a representation of how the companies match up.

But with how much consoles dictate games these days it makes plenty of sense.
Click to expand...
Speaking of Steam hardware surveys, I’ve started getting them more regularly after a clean installation of Windows.
 
humbug said:
Interesting...

GPU Marketshare
With AMD earning $1.65 Billion (@51% Margins) vs Nvidia's $1.85 Billion (@66% Margins) The idea that Nvidia have 90% market share is nonsensical, These numbers come from data points like Steam Hardware Survey, apparently analysts are getting tired of things like Steam Hardware Survey as they realise they are complete and utter BS.
There seems to be some shenanigans going on with them, Nvidia push a lot of these 1650 5GB cards that aren't actually 1650's to internet cafes for very cheap and multiple Steam accounts get pinged for the Survey on the same machine, perhaps even that Nvidia systems get pinged a lot more than AMD ones....
You see something similar to this in action on Steam Hardware Survey when it comes to CPU's, AMD will take a 3 percentage point share over 3, 4, 5 months (that's millions of machines) and suddenly Intel gets a 4 percentage point jump in one month, AMD claws it back again over several months and then bang millions of Intel based systems are added to the data, over and over and over......
Analysts do, or used to use these data points to calculate how well a company is doing vs a competitor.
When you look at the actual financial results none of it adds up and people are starting to notice, the consensus is that AMD's actual marketshare vs Nvidia is around 30 to 40%. not 10%. On the CPU side its also no doubt much higher vs Intel than Steam would suggest. AMD's Zen CPU's have been outselling Intel by 2X to 5X over the last 3 years, pre-build and laptops have gone from 0 to 20% in that time too, you can't have that and AMD's Steam Market Share change by 5 percentage points, it doesn't add up.

Inventory.
Both AMD and Nvidia have more inventory right now than they usually do, AMD 2.5X Nvidia 4X, so they are not selling as well as they anticipated.
On that Nvidia are far less likely to drop prices because they are in a petition to off load that inventory to people who want workstation and data centre cards at a reduced price, AMD aren't so a price cut for us is far more likely from the AMD camp.

AMD price cuts incoming.

Click to expand...
I disagree on GPU marketshare.

During the shortage and since, AMD barely bothered. And current availability for anything above a 6700 is really poor. And while now is not a sure way to say what happened the last 3 years, the used market gives a hint too.

Not just fleabay but also that high-street vendor of used parts: AMD availability is really really low with cards like the 3070 outnumbering the 6700 and similarly with the 6800 and 3080. And consequently used prices of Nvidia are actually lower a lot of the time with a 6900 and a 3090 almost the same price. (Yes, I guess it is possible that consumers have finally had enough of the stingy VRAM on Nvidia cards and 8GB/10GB no longer appeals but I doubt that.)
 
KompuKare said:
I disagree on GPU marketshare.

During the shortage and since, AMD barely bothered. And current availability for anything above a 6700 is really poor. And while now is not a sure way to say what happened the last 3 years, the used market gives a hint too.

Not just fleabay but also that high-street vendor of used parts: AMD availability is really really low with cards like the 3070 outnumbering the 6700 and similarly with the 6800 and 3080. And consequently used prices of Nvidia are actually lower a lot of the time with a 6900 and a 3090 almost the same price. (Yes, I guess it is possible that consumers have finally had enough of the stingy VRAM on Nvidia cards and 8GB/10GB no longer appeals but I doubt that.)
Click to expand...
It’s going to include consoles so that boosts the AMD market share considerably. Up to 40% is not unreasonable.
 
KompuKare said:
I disagree on GPU marketshare.

During the shortage and since, AMD barely bothered. And current availability for anything above a 6700 is really poor. And while now is not a sure way to say what happened the last 3 years, the used market gives a hint too.

Not just fleabay but also that high-street vendor of used parts: AMD availability is really really low with cards like the 3070 outnumbering the 6700 and similarly with the 6800 and 3080. And consequently used prices of Nvidia are actually lower a lot of the time with a 6900 and a 3090 almost the same price. (Yes, I guess it is possible that consumers have finally had enough of the stingy VRAM on Nvidia cards and 8GB/10GB no longer appeals but I doubt that.)
Click to expand...

How do you account for AMD's 90% of Nvidia's revenue if they only sell 10% as many GPU's?
 
humbug said:
How do you account for AMD's 90% of Nvidia's revenue if they only sell 10% as many GPU's?
Click to expand...
Consoles. But your initial post went on about dGPU sales so not consoles.

From stuff from sale both new and used I simply barely see any Radeons at all. When 7nm wafers were super scarce, most they had to spare after the super low margins consoles and servers, went to 7nm CPUs as those make far more margin per mm2 than GPUs.

In the dGPU market, I think AMD have barely had one toe in the water since 2020.
 
KompuKare said:
Consoles. But your initial post went on about dGPU sales so not consoles.

From stuff from sale both new and used I simply barely see any Radeons at all. When 7nm wafers were super scarce, most they had to spare after the super low margins consoles and servers, went to 7nm CPUs as those make far more margin per mm2 than GPUs.

In the dGPU market, I think AMD have barely had one toe in the water since 2020.
Click to expand...

Nvidia include GeForce Now and the Nintendo Switch in their revenue, the switch sells as many units as the Series X/S and PS5 put together.

I'm not saying AMD have sales parity with Nvidia but 1 in 10 is way off unless AMD are making about $300 per console and that's not happening....
 
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Tech Stock Pro think AMD are over valued, they won't gain much market share in 2023, they wont benefit from AI (This despite owning the largest maker of FPGA's) and they think AMD margins will take a significant hit during 2023.

They are upset about the markets bullishness on AMD, completely ignoring the reasons for it

seekingalpha.com

AMD: Tone Deaf To Demand Headwinds - Downgraded To Sell (NASDAQ:AMD)

We’re downgrading Advanced Micro Devices to a sell. We believe AMD stock has now more than captured the expectation of recovery in demand. Read more here.
seekingalpha.com seekingalpha.com

In November last year they said exactly the opposite.... when AMD's shares hit rock bottom compared with recent trends. AMD's share price has shot up in the last couple of weeks.... Yeah Shorts anyone? :D

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4555381-amd-the-worst-is-priced-in-buy

At the time of writing this.

LdA5aJr.png
 
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humbug said:
Tech Stock Pro think AMD are over valued, they won't gain much market share in 2023, they wont benefit from AI (This despite owning the largest maker of FPGA's) and they think AMD margins will take a significant hit during 2023.

They are upset about the markets bullishness on AMD, completely ignoring the reasons for it

seekingalpha.com

AMD: Tone Deaf To Demand Headwinds - Downgraded To Sell (NASDAQ:AMD)

We’re downgrading Advanced Micro Devices to a sell. We believe AMD stock has now more than captured the expectation of recovery in demand. Read more here.
seekingalpha.com seekingalpha.com

In November last year they said exactly the opposite.... when AMD's shares hit rock bottom compared with recent trends. AMD's share price has shot up in the last couple of weeks.... Yeah Shorts anyone? :D

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4555381-amd-the-worst-is-priced-in-buy

At the time of writing this.

LdA5aJr.png
Click to expand...
IMHO the stock market is a very dodgy place but now we see AMD at 163Bn ($101 per share) whereas Intc 119Bn.
Maybe a new thread is required - Intel on the road to recovery (in the next few years that is)
 
The big question for me in regards to Intel would be, can Intel recover the investments in new fabs quickly enough through third party customers, if it’s own R&D investments in CPU, GPU and APU’s don’t pay off.

I know the US tax payers are subsiding the building of it’s new fabs in the states, but after those are completed, it will be down to Intel to keep everything running close to 95% capacity globally. All while fulfilling Intels own obligations to produce chips at TSMC.
 
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