From a marketing viewpoint. All P10 cards will have 8GB i think. Just look at the flak the Fury got because of it. On the smaller cards 4GB would do fine, but the price is not high enough to justify HBM.
I think almost everyone has forgotten capacity issues, it's proved to be a total non-issue. Only thing imo that might effect it is HDR, which AMD are going to push and NVIDIA presumably won't or don't support.
Fairly sure NV won't support that (or will try to fudge it in software) until Volta.
AMD brought forward support because Sony need it to sell their top of the range TVs.
But back to the point. Though Polaris seems to be less bandwidth hungry, a bigger chip would need more than GDDR5 can feasibly offer at 8GB. I doubt they return to a 512bit gddr bus, as likely that proves more expensive than hbm1 at this point. With the 28 to 14nm shrink, there should be enough room on an interposer smaller than Fiji's to do 6GB or 8GB.