AMD even internally almost always under estimate IPC gains, the chances are they could still hit a 20 to 25% performance increase with Zen 5, 15 to 20% of that coming from IPC. "10 to 15%" is minimum.
With 25% its 48,320 in R23, seems right to me that they would be shooting for near 50K with a 16 core part, tho they will have the option of a 24 core part, 8 big cores and 16 little cores tho it should be said AMD's little cores are the same as the large ones, with less cache, for example the 128 core Bergamo has 16MB L3 per core vs 32MB on the 96 core Genoa.
There could even be a a situation where you have a choice of 8+8 or 8+16 as well as 8 / 8+8 with 3D Cache.
Also, these will be competing with 14'th gen, not Arrow Lake, that's Zen 6.
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