Chances of UKIP winning General Election?

Tute · 6 Jun 2014 at 13:17

I can't see them winning the GE by a long shot. I expect it'll be Tory/Labour tied at the top with pretty much the same amount of seats and another hung parliament, but without the LibDems around to form the coalition.

I do expect UKIP to beat the LibDems in terms of overall proportion of vote, but to still not win a single seat.

I expect i'll still vote for them though, barring an epiphany at Tory HQ.

deuse · 6 Jun 2014 at 14:08

[FnG]magnolia;26411687 said:
Anyway, how do UKIP compare to your previous preferred party, the BNP? I mean, other than also making grandoise statements but not winning much in the way of anything at all.

It was Labour. I as others used another party for a protest vote. But UKIP is a good one to back for the GE.

ubersonic · 6 Jun 2014 at 14:10

Tute said:
I can't see them winning the GE by a long shot. I expect it'll be Tory/Labour tied at the top with pretty much the same amount of seats and another hung parliament, but without the LibDems around to form the coalition.

Yup, and because Labour have had their mess sorted out for them they won't turn the LibDems down this time (They were Cleggs first choice for a coalition).

Skidder · 6 Jun 2014 at 14:11

deuse said:
It was Labour. I as others used another party for a protest vote. But UKIP is a good one to back for the GE.

Is that what they call a dirty protest?

Gilly · 6 Jun 2014 at 14:22

BNP is a worse protest vote than UKIP :/

One of the only ones that is.

robgmun · 6 Jun 2014 at 14:26

[FnG]magnolia;26411687 said:
I don't know what you think you're trying to say here

Anyway, how do UKIP compare to your previous preferred party, the BNP? I mean, other than also making grandoise statements but not winning much in the way of anything at all.

Mags you're not even in the same hemisphere let alone country, what the hell is it to you?

robgmun · 6 Jun 2014 at 14:29

bam0 said:
At the risk of posting something hosted at the Guardian; http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/02/five-myths-ukip-conservatives-farage-newark
Polling shows that approval for UKIP is actually going down, they just got a bigger proportion of their supporters voting this time, given the different perception of the EU elections to national ones it still looks fairly safe to say they'll be an irrelevance in the next GE.

Absolutely hilarious, i bet they can spin the LibDems into winning Newark if they wanted LOL

Tute · 6 Jun 2014 at 14:41

ubersonic said:
Yup, and because Labour have had their mess sorted out for them they won't turn the LibDems down this time (They were Cleggs first choice for a coalition).

I don't think the LibDems will end up with enough seats for a two-party coalition.

We'll either have a mish-mash of one of the big parties and lots of little ones or get sent straight back to the ballot boxes in the hope that "think again immediately" will somehow change the vote.

semi-pro waster · 6 Jun 2014 at 19:40

robgmun said:
Mags you're not even in the same hemisphere let alone country, what the hell is it to you?

If you'd emigrated to another country would you retain absolutely no interest in the country you'd left?

Actually come to that point - to you need to have any links to a country to be interested in what happens in it? Particularly if you see something happening that you don't agree with? To the best of my knowledge I've got no ties to North Korea but what happens there interests me to a degree.

Monkeynut · 6 Jun 2014 at 20:22

What I found interesting about the Newark by-election was how the Liberal Democrat vote was utterly destroyed. We knew UKIP would do reasonably well. These sort of seats have too many "I'm a conservative and my grandad was a conservative and I'll always be a conservative" to get another party in. UKIP do however have the chance of remaining at least SOME momentum in this particular seat, in previous by-elections they have used the opportunity to strengthen the local campaign offices.

Energize · 6 Jun 2014 at 23:57

Gilly said:
BNP is a worse protest vote than UKIP :/

One of the only ones that is.

There's also Labour and the Greens.

tbyeah · 7 Jun 2014 at 00:06

Thompson_NCL said:
Neither position is narrow-minded in and of itself.

Judging someone by their race is about as narrow minded as it gets.

zyzzyzus · 7 Jun 2014 at 00:20

They would do well to get 2 seats tbh. But hey, if they get 2 seats then they did better than the Green Party did at the last election!

At least UKIP wont get in where I live. It's been Conservative for 100s of years and will probably never change which means my vote is wasted.

coolbeaNs92 · 7 Jun 2014 at 03:17

If they win, I'm shipping out.

scorza · 7 Jun 2014 at 09:43

coolbeaNs92 said:
If they win, I'm shipping out.

Lots of people always say that about Labour and the Tories as well, hardly ever of them actually do.

ElliorR · 7 Jun 2014 at 10:04

It's funny, I never thought I'd be glad a tory won a seat but because of the alternative, I am.

ElliorR · 7 Jun 2014 at 10:10

scorza said:
Lots of people always say that about Labour and the Tories as well, hardly ever of them actually do.

Aye it is something I find amusing when people say it.

The thing is no matter what the naysayers say, this is a good country to live in despite all it's faults.

In my lifetime it's been a 2 party system and will be for the rest of my lifetime I'm sure. What I don't like is the homogenisation of mainstream politics as we'll never really get much difference no matter who wins at election time.

greywolf · 7 Jun 2014 at 10:25

[FnG]magnolia;26411646 said:
And UKIP were 7,000 behind the Conservatives.

Not really 7,000 behind as such, would only take 3,501 of those to switch vote from con to ukip. So not far behind at all, and not quite the conservatives great win, nice bit of spin is all.

On a side note I find it funny that the week leading up to the EU elections the BBC decided not to report on the hundreds of thousands of migrants massing in Libya trying to cross in to Europe. Instead reporting that immigration was all going swimmingly. Then waiting until this past week to suddenly report it on the main lunchtime news.

RoboCod · 7 Jun 2014 at 10:30

greywolf said:
Not really 7,000 behind as such, would only take 3,501 of those to switch vote from con to ukip. So not far behind at all, and not quite the conservatives great win, nice bit of spin is all.

On a side note I find it funny that the week leading up to the EU elections the BBC decided not to report on the hundreds of thousands of migrants massing in Libya trying to cross in to Europe. Instead reporting that immigration was all going swimmingly. Then waiting until this past week to suddenly report it on the main lunchtime news.

The actual numbers mean nothing, it's the percentages you should bother to note.

[FnG]magnolia · 7 Jun 2014 at 10:31

greywolf said:
Not really 7,000 behind as such, would only take 3,501 of those to switch vote from con to ukip. So not far behind at all, and not quite the conservatives great win, nice bit of spin is all.

On a side note I find it funny that the week leading up to the EU elections the BBC decided not to report on the hundreds of thousands of migrants massing in Libya trying to cross in to Europe. Instead reporting that immigration was all going swimmingly. Then waiting until this past week to suddenly report it on the main lunchtime news.

You don't understand basic arithmetic and your fantasy option of 3,501 votes going to UKIP could easily be changed to going to any other party.

UKIP were miles behind. Not as far as before but still far enough from winning a seat as to be meaningless.