COVID-19 (Coronavirus) discussion

Mr Jack said:
It's already being investigated and widely discussed and we already have good answers. Naturally, at this stage, the exact balance between different known factors needs more research but that research is, of course, ongoing. So what is his point here?
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Jokester said:
Nothing to see here, it’s just the backlog of medical treatment caused by hospitals swamped by covid patients for the last two years like the U.K., US most of Europe and Oz and NZ.
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Sounds like your both agreement with him :D

You say its already being investigated and discussed, so that's a good thing isn't it, what's the harm in him also discussing / highlighting it to his subscribers?
 
I had my 4th vaccine, seasonal booster yesterday. Pfizer bivalent, original vaccine plus Omicron OM1. No side effects except for a slightly sore arm.
I did have covid in early September which was uncomfortable for a good few days. I trust that now I will be full of antibodies over this coming winter.
 
SupraWez said:
Sounds like your both agreement with him :D

You say its already being investigated and discussed, so that's a good thing isn't it, what's the harm in him also discussing / highlighting it to his subscribers?
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Covid did quite a good job in masking excess deaths from more usual sources after all approx half a million people die each year in the UK from all causes, accident, disease and just tired out. Many would have died from Covid before the other causes kicked in.
 
UTmaniac said:
Peer reviewed data showing there was Covid in Italy months before the pandemic became offical, strong suggestion of going back to at least August 2019, given how antibodies take a week or so to reach detectable levels.
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Nope. tldr; it's very likely to be just false positives in poor quality data.

The claim that Covid-19 was kicking around in Europe back then is incompatible with multiple independent lines of evidence: most notably, the genetic data of isolated SARS-CoV-2 and the lack of any evidence of associated disease at this time. Some unreliable antibody tests don't provide the strong evidence required to be believable.
 
Mr Jack said:
Nope. tldr; it's very likely to be just false positives in poor quality data.

The claim that Covid-19 was kicking around in Europe back then is incompatible with multiple independent lines of evidence: most notably, the genetic data of isolated SARS-CoV-2 and the lack of any evidence of associated disease at this time. Some unreliable antibody tests don't provide the strong evidence required to be believable.
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Is the issue with that hypothesis that if it was due to them being smokers producing these sorts of antibodies, we would then see this repeated elsewhere?

There's also other separate studies showing Covid evidence (both antibody and DNA) in the same time frame from Italy:
www.sciencedirect.com

Molecular evidence for SARS-CoV-2 in samples collected from patients with morbilliform eruptions since late 2019 in Lombardy, northern Italy

As a reference laboratory for measles and rubella surveillance in Lombardy, we evaluated the association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and measles-like…
www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com

Maybe Italians are just **** at taking medical samples?

Edit:
It's worth pointing out that Milan has international links with Wuhan through the fashion industry so it's not outlandish that it would appear in Lombardy very early on.
 
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Jokester said:
Is the issue with that hypothesis that if it was due to them being smokers producing these sorts of antibodies, we would then see this repeated elsewhere?
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It's not merely that they are from smokers (which, yes, is known to occur elsewhere from the studies they referenced), it's that there are general problems with the sensitivity of the tests that they use.

There's also other separate studies showing Covid evidence (both antibody and DNA) in the same time frame from Italy:
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There's been half a dozen studies claiming early detection of Covid. None of them are particularly convincing. The one that you post is one of the more promising but given how faint the signal they initially detect is - and especially how they fail to detect it with qPCR - I suspect that they've sequenced nothing more than contamination. PCR is amazing, but that ability to amplify the most trace of DNA into a signal also means that if you're ignoring quality signals that indicate sample quality then contamination is extremely easy.
 
Mr Jack said:
It's not merely that they are from smokers (which, yes, is known to occur elsewhere from the studies they referenced), it's that there are general problems with the sensitivity of the tests that they use.



There's been half a dozen studies claiming early detection of Covid. None of them are particularly convincing. The one that you post is one of the more promising but given how faint the signal they initially detect is - and especially how they fail to detect it with qPCR - I suspect that they've sequenced nothing more than contamination. PCR is amazing, but that ability to amplify the most trace of DNA into a signal also means that if you're ignoring quality signals that indicate sample quality then contamination is extremely easy.
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You should be chipping into the peer reviews!
 
Jokester said:
It's worth pointing out that Milan has international links with Wuhan through the fashion industry so it's not outlandish that it would appear in Lombardy very early on.
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However we would see a massive death rate in Lombardy at the end of 2019, as soon as an area got it respiratory deaths climbed.
My nephew really thinks his Nan, my Mum, died with it in December 2019.
I said think about it, the whole of Ward 233 would be dead including me, you and your Mum with all our comorbitities.
Of course we started to see it March 2020 onwards when first cases started to hit us.
 
SexyGreyFox said:
However we would see a massive death rate in Lombardy at the end of 2019, as soon as an area got it respiratory deaths climbed.
My nephew really thinks his Nan, my Mum, died with it in December 2019.
I said think about it, the whole of Ward 233 would be dead including me, you and your Mum with all our comorbitities.
Of course we started to see it March 2020 onwards when first cases started to hit us.
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You’re likely over estimating how serious even original Wuhan covid was, plus the rate at which the infection would spread - remember the original strain took 10-14 days of incubation I think it was before someone became infectious. It would take a good while before it would likely cause large numbers of vulnerable people to fall ill and need hospital treatment at the same time.

There is other evidence it was in Lombardy before the end of 2019 as well. First UK death was later found to be January 2020 once they went back and started looking for it.

news.sky.com

COVID-19: Daughter of first UK victim questions when coronavirus arrived in the country

Peter Attwood died on the 30 January 2020 but his cause of death wasn't officially discovered until seven months later.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

They reckon it was spreading widely in the U.K. by December.
 
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SexyGreyFox said:
However we would see a massive death rate in Lombardy at the end of 2019, as soon as an area got it respiratory deaths climbed.
My nephew really thinks his Nan, my Mum, died with it in December 2019.
I said think about it, the whole of Ward 233 would be dead including me, you and your Mum with all our comorbitities.
Of course we started to see it March 2020 onwards when first cases started to hit us.
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Depends entirely on demographics, Lombardy doesn't appear to have a large 70+ age group, 80+ even less so.
 
Jokester said:
You’re likely over estimating how serious even original Wuhan covid was, plus the rate at which the infection would spread - remember the original strain took 10-14 days of incubation I think it was before someone became infectious. It would take a good while before it would likely cause large numbers of vulnerable people to fall ill and need hospital treatment at the same time.

There is other evidence it was in Lombardy before the end of 2019 as well. First UK death was later found to be January 2020 once they went back and started looking for it.

news.sky.com

COVID-19: Daughter of first UK victim questions when coronavirus arrived in the country

Peter Attwood died on the 30 January 2020 but his cause of death wasn't officially discovered until seven months later.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

They reckon it was spreading widely in the U.K. by December.
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There is a lot of talk of the "original Wuhan strain" but for some reason it persistently gets missed that there were 2 variants, I don't believe either was actually the ancestor of the other though most early studies claim 19b to have emerged from 19a, circulating from early on in Wuhan. One of them was far more serious than what went on to be the Alpha strain which became dominant. A lot of the response to this pandemic was based off the worse strain despite it being virtually extinct by December 2020.

The 19b strain was responsible for many of the early scenes we saw of carnage in hospitals.

Sadly nextstrain never did updated situation reports after 2020

auspice

nextstrain.org nextstrain.org

This tends to suggest it had been circulating quite awhile before the first known cases in Wuhan, possibly somewhere else but with links to Wuhan.
 
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Jokester said:
They reckon it was spreading widely in the U.K. by December.
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99% sure that I picked it up very early in 2020, with the worst round of illness I had ever had in my life, all the symptoms that would later be associated with Covid.

Later antibody testing would show that I did have it at some point, even though once lockdowns etc were announced we never had any illness within immediate family.
 
kindai said:
99% sure that I picked it up very early in 2020, with the worst round of illness I had ever had in my life, all the symptoms that would later be associated with Covid.

Later antibody testing would show that I did have it at some point, even though once lockdowns etc were announced we never had any illness within immediate family.
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Perhaps you got it from a skier who associated with Chinese students or tourists from Wigan.
 
What's the deal for people who want a vaccine but aren't currently elegible? Tried looking for UK gov plans but I guess they're focused on how much public money they can shovel off to their mates under the guise of COVID necessity.

Do vaccines still help fight off extreme COVID after more than 6 months?
 
sigma said:
What's the deal for people who want a vaccine but aren't currently elegible? Tried looking for UK gov plans but I guess they're focused on how much public money they can shovel off to their mates under the guise of COVID necessity.

Do vaccines still help fight off extreme COVID after more than 6 months?
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Book in by giving them the answers they want and no one checks in my experience
 
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