Destiny 2... It's a coming!

https://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyTheGame/comments/7o0sf3/destiny_2_player_dropoff_representative_sample_w/ said:
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Warnings and considerations:

This is only a sample of the total player population and the final figures, when taken into consideration, may paint a different picture. Do not take this to be 100% accurate and perfectly indicative of the player population because I only looked at a pseudo-random ~10% of the player base (so far).

Sample Size:

The current sample size, at the time of posting this is 1,307,165 Destiny 2 accounts (not characters, but accounts). There are roughly 12,000,000 total accounts (estimated) which makes this sample about 10.9% (give or take) of the population.

How the sample was gathered:

I simultaneously scraped the Bungie.net API for membershipIds (/User/GetMembershipsById/{membershipId}/-1/) starting a new thread every 500,000 from ID #1 to ID # 17,500,000 (35 concurrent threads). Once the membershipIds were requested, I took the destinyMemberships list from the response, and made subsequent requests for each Destiny 2 Profile (/Destiny2/{membershipType}/Profile/{destinyMembershipId}/) and recorded the dateLastPlayed, converted that to a UNIX Timestamp and stored it in a database.

How the data was parsed:

Because the Bungie.Net API doesn't indicate when an account was created, I made the assumption that any account for XBox or PS4 started at game launch (Sept. 6th 2017) and any account for PC started on PC Launch (Oct. 24th 2017).

The total number of accounts was my starting point. Each account was then viewed and the dateLastPlayed for that account was checked against the start of day timestamp for each date between Sept. 6th and Dec. 31st. 2017. If the date was greater than the last played date, the account was subtracted from the total for each subsequent day afterward.

Additional Considerations:

There are a lot of entries that appear to be accounts that were never played. The dateLastPlayed reported on them is 0001-01-01T00:00:00Z, which leads me to believe that they have no previously recorded activity, but I can't guarantee that assumption is correct, so for the sake of my analysis, I simply excluded them.

All the accounts that I've viewed were checked a second time to make sure none of them had played after 2017-12-31, and another chunk was removed from the results for having recorded new activity. (My initial data set was 1,500,000+ accounts, of which, only 1,307,165 were included in the chart)

What the data shows (i.e. TL;DR):

Total player count dropped from 1,307,165 to 321,843 from launch to the end of the year, which is a drop of 75.37%.

PS4 player count dropped from 712,431 to 158,523, which is a drop of 77.74%.

XBox player count dropped from 594,987 to 127,428, which is a drop of 78.58%.

PC player count dropped from 194,607 to 35,892, which is a drop of 81.55%.

EDIT: The reason the chart does not show an increase for the DLC is because of the way the data was parsed;

Because the Bungie.Net API doesn't indicate when an account was created, I made the assumption that any account for XBox or PS4 started at game launch (Sept. 6th 2017) and any account for PC started on PC Launch (Oct. 24th 2017).

This does not change the end result of the chart, which correctly shows the final player drop off. It does not however, show the increase for people coming back for the DLC at the start of December.
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I decided I'm going to give my PS4 to my little brother as he still only has a 360 and I felt bad as I never touch my PS4. But before doing that I thought i'd load up Destiny one last time to look at my D1 Guardians.

Going to the original tower was refreshing. Bounty board, Eva Levante, The Speaker, Kiosks, an actual good vault with space, Eververse with it's tiny inoffensive shop front, faction reps always there and selling actual weapons (FWC actually has a really good hand cannon for sale), A Gunsmith who actually has a purpose and these are things I noticed within a few minutes again.

Then I looked at my weapons and armour... Oh how I miss running my Cryptic Dragon (with firefly not this crappy dragonfly) with a Patch-A shotgun and my Ballerhorn... a rocket launcher with 2 whole rockets! I even had a rocket launcher in my inventory with tripod so it had 3 rokcets... THREE.

Oh how proud/smug I was once I finally had a set of 'T12' armour (though it wasn't as I liked it so i'm often only T11 depending on the artefact i run). Being able to hold extra ammo or reload quicker with certain weapon types to really build your guardian to your design, having valuable perks on your armour! (health regen on orb pick up, bonus energy for minion kills of darkness, carry extra rockets, etc)

I then felt annoyed at logged off and shut the PS4 down for the last time... Just how Bungie went from Y3 to what we have no is nothing short of a fail on spectacular levels. It's actually rather impressive.

This is a sad and salty Guardian.
 
That post is so flawed it is almost worthless to refer to from a data perspective. However, the general idea behind it is completely true. Player base is dropping, DLC was a joke but im still having fun in it for now. Playing less though.

They need to really work on the end game and remove a lot of eververse to keep the grind going along with random rolls on gear aside from the lack of content..like faction rally is coming next week I think, and I looked at NM and thought - why would I pledge considering I am stuck with mobility for hunter as an example.

I never played d1 though, maybe why im still having fun raiding and pulling people through them
 
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What's the activity like in the OCUK #1 Clan and are there any spots available? I'm in OCUK #2 but very few people online when I play (a few hours during the day on the weekend and early evenings during the week)
 
Squid Vicious said:
What's the activity like in the OCUK #1 Clan and are there any spots available? I'm in OCUK #2 but very few people online when I play (a few hours during the day on the weekend and early evenings during the week)
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Its good :) We raid every week and do all the clan requirements

JunglistE said:
We've got space and are active. Smashing the weekly targets still
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Normally by midnight on a Tuesday! lol
 
Squid Vicious said:
I've dropped from OCUK 2 - could you drop me an invite to the clan, it shows as closed to new members when I apply - it's Jakkul#2617.
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Invite sent :)

Wasn't tired tonight so ended up doing an LFG for prestige Leviathon and we smashed it in 55 minutes!!! Definitely going to be doing more of that!
 
I may try and hop in on a group tonight. That stupid shotgun thing is taking up valuable space. Currently just working on getting lots of max level load outs. Want at least 1 for each subclass.

Still can't get rid of my mix of SMG/Scout rifle. Was playing with the Antilope-D and Manannan SR4. Nice mix.
 
JunglistE said:
I may try and hop in on a group tonight. That stupid shotgun thing is taking up valuable space. Currently just working on getting lots of max level load outs. Want at least 1 for each subclass.

Still can't get rid of my mix of SMG/Scout rifle. Was playing with the Antilope-D and Manannan SR4. Nice mix.
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I did the same, builds for different subclasses as well as saving 330 gear in prep for faction rally/iron banner for infusing etc.

I noticed that the shotgun quest can be completed even if you dismiss it. I got the prestige side of it last night and haven't had it on my character in ages.
 
Game Director Christopher Barrett:
Hey, everyone. At the end of last year, I made a promise that I would update you on our plans for Destiny 2. The team has been hard at work and we’re ready to share where we are headed. We used to wait to talk about game updates until we were certain we could meet our deadlines to avoid letting players down if we changed our plans. No longer. We’re not just listening, we are doing. Please keep in mind that the further out we make promises, the more they are subject to change. With that caveat, here are our plans.
Destiny Content Categories
One thing we want is to set clearer expectations for is which categories of content are available to everyone each Season, and which are exclusive to Destiny 2 Expansions:
Expansions are purchasable updates that typically add new Story, Destinations, and Gear, as well as new Crucible, Strike, and Raid Lair content.
Seasons introduce content that is made available to all players of Destiny 2, at no additional cost.
01112018_post_launch_content.jpg

Iron Banner, Faction Rallies, and their rewards will be available to everyone as part of Season 2. Additionally, going forward we are making a change that new Seasonal rewards from Crucible, Strikes, and Trials of the Nine will be available to all players.
Faction Rallies returns on January 16 and Iron Banner will be back in the rotation on January 30.
Eververse
We recognize that the scales are tipped too far towards Tess at the moment, and Eververse was never intended to be a substitute for end game content and rewards. So, we’ll be making three changes for upcoming Seasons:
  • We’re shifting the balance of new content in favor of activity rewards over Bright Engrams. This includes adding Ghosts, Sparrows, and ships (to date found only in Bright Engrams) to achievement reward pools.
  • We'll provide a gameplay path to earn Bright Engrams and all contained rewards (including Event Engrams).
  • We’ll give players more direct purchase options and make adjustments to Bright Engrams to allow players to get the items they want more often.
We’ve begun implementing these changes for the Crimson Days event beginning February 13 (with even more changes on the way in Season 3):
  • Completing Nightfall, Raid, and Crimson Days milestones during Crimson Days will reward you an exclusive Legendary Emote, Weapon Skin, and Exotic Sparrow, respectively.
  • Players will earn double engrams at level-up: one Crimson Engram and one Illuminated Engram for the duration of the event.
  • Crimson Engrams can also drop from completing the Crimson Days match and from completing the Crimson Days milestone on each character.
  • Each Crimson Engram is very strongly weighted to new rewards when decrypted until all new event items have been obtained.
XP Rates
We are still investigating changes to XP earn rates. Our goal with any updates to XP are transparency and consistent XP gain regardless of your preferred activity. Right now, it’s too slow in general and lopsided towards grinding specific activities (which is not a fun grind) and we want to fix that without making those activities low value to players who aren’t grinding them (fairness is cool). Our first attempt turned out to be unworkably buggy so we’re having to investigate other angles. We will continue to update you as we move forward.
Feature Roadmap
There are three releases that we want to put on your radar right now. Later releases will get more specific dates as they get closer.
The following content and features will be available to all D2 players, regardless of expansion ownership.

January 30 Update
  • Masterwork Armor
    • We are expanding the Masterwork system to include armor.
    • Masterwork Armor provides increased damage reduction while using your Super.
    • You can reroll the armor stat type on Masterwork Armor, and similar to Masterwork weapons, you can upgrade a piece of armor to Masterwork by spending Masterwork Cores and Legendary Shards.
masterwork_armor_01.jpg

  • Raid Reward Rework
    • We are updating Raid rewards to make them more unique and interesting. They will now feature mods with Raid-specific perks, and we are adjusting the rewards to ensure a Raid item drops from each major encounter. The Raid vendor will also directly sell Leviathan and Eater of Worlds armor and weapons for purchase with Raid tokens and Legendary Shards.
    • We are also adding a new Ghost with Raid-specific perks that has a chance to drop from the Leviathan and Eater of Worlds final encounters. We intend to return to creating more Raid and other activity-unique rewards in the future.
February Update
  • Strike Scoring + High Score Tracking
    • Strike Scoring is coming to Nightfall and replacing the current time limit mechanic. The scoring is similar to the Destiny 1 system but with adjustments to emphasize competitive execution of Strike objectives and support for player selectable score modifiers. In February, Nightfall High Scores will be exposed in-game via new emblems and will unlock rewards. We also have plans for Clan and Community High Scores in the works.
  • Mods 2.0
    • Work is underway on a full rework of armor and weapon mods. This will focus on reducing redundant mods, more unique theming, and greatly increasing their impact on your power. We are aiming for a February release, but the scope of the rework could push parts or all of it out to early spring. We will be evaluating how Mods play into the Bright Engram economy as a result, because we’re sensitive to pay-to-win outcomes.
  • Quickplay Improvements
    • We are adjusting game mode rules to increase the pace of gameplay and power ammo acquisition in Quickplay.
  • PC Tower Chat
    • We are adding text chat to the Tower for the PC version of the game.
  • Exotic Repetition Reduction
    • This will prevent players from receiving the same Exotic twice in a row. You may still receive duplicates, just not consecutively.
  • Fireteam Members on Destination Map
    • You will finally be able to see the other members of your fireteam on the destination map. No more having to ask your fireteam where they went when they fast travel to another landing zone.
Spring 2018
We’re taking the time we need in development of Expansion 2 that will allow us to react to player feedback from Curse of Osiris. In the coming months, we’ll talk to you more about what you can expect to find in Destiny 2’s next story. The team is eager to show you what they’ve been working on.
Independent of Expansion 2, the team will deliver a number of new features that will be released before or during Season 3. Every player of Destiny 2 will receive new content in the following categories…
Crucible
We want to give players new reasons to play, more variety, and balance improvements. Spring will bring a number of exciting and long awaited features to the Crucible.
  • Crucible Rank
    • Beginning with Season 3 we will introduce Seasonal Crucible Ranks. There will be two different ranks for players to pursue:
      • Valor – A progression rank that goes up as you complete matches. Winning helps you move up faster, but there are no loss penalties.
      • Glory – A progression rank that goes up when you win and down when you lose. Performance is how you move up here.
Crucible-Rank.jpg

  • Private Matches
    • Private Matches are coming to all players of Destiny 2. Players will be able to invite their friends to play on the map and mode of their choosing.
PvP_Private_Matches.jpg

  • 6v6 Playlist
    • We’re bringing 6v6 PvP to Destiny 2 in addition to the current 4v4 game modes.
  • Mayhem Event
    • Mayhem will return as a limited-time event during Season 3 and going forward.
  • Additional Fixes
    • We are making some changes to make quitting less common and behind-the-scenes security improvements to help improve the overall Crucible experience.
Additional Highlights
  • Weapon and Ability Balance Pass
    • Sandbox adjustments based on player feedback and data from the live game. The Sandbox team will share specific changes as we lead up to Season 3.
  • Exotic Weapon and Armor Balance Pass
    • Exotic weapons and armor are receiving a comprehensive design pass to ensure they stand out from the rest of the gear and offer new, exciting, powerful ways to play.
  • Seasonal Reputation
    • Specific vendors will now display a Seasonal ranking. Earning reputation will unlock unique Seasonal rewards and will reset each Season.
  • Improved Iron Banner and Faction Rallies
    • In addition to the changes that you will see when Iron Banner and Faction Rallies return this month, we will continue iterating on these to make them unique, exciting experiences that you all look forward to.
  • Playlist Repetition Reduction
    • This feature solves the problem of experiencing the same playlist entry multiple times in consecutive or frequent succession for both Crucible and Strikes.
  • End Game Player Pursuits
    • We agree with your feedback on the imbalance between Achievement and Bright Engram rewards, and we will be making adjustments to shift more rewards into specific endgame pursuits instead of generic XP grinding for Bright Engrams. We are excited to share the details as soon as we have them worked out.
  • Multi-Emote
    • When multi-emote launches, you will be able to choose which emote you have equipped to each of your four emote slots.
  • Vault space
    • We are targeting an additional 50 slots to player vaults. We don’t believe just adding more space is a complete solution and are actively working on other changes to reduce load on your vault space.
    • We are adding an Exotic accessory tab to Vault collections so you will no longer need to spend Vault space on Exotic Ships, Sparrows, and Ghosts.
  • PC Clan Chat
    • In addition to the Tower chat that is targeted for February, we are adding clan chat to the PC version of the game.
  • Heroic Strike Changes
    • We’ll be introducing modifiers to add more gameplay variety to the experience.

Fall 2018 (or sooner)
We are working on a lot more that we're not quite ready to discuss. Expect more on this small sample of items in the future:
  • Item Collections and Records
  • Weapon Slot and Archetype Improvements
  • Additional Crucible Playlists (e.g. Rumble)
  • Better Clan Rewards
  • Masterwork Exotics
  • Pinnacle Weapon and Gear Improvements
  • Trials of the Nine improvements
  • Shaders and dismantling
  • The Future of Guided Games
  • Address Solo Vs Fireteam matching
One Final Note
Expect to hear more from us via Bungie.net, Twitch, and social media. We’ll be talking to you more directly, and more often, as promised. We want to thank our community for all the passionate and detailed feedback you provide. It’s critical to our ability to continually improve Destiny, so thank you!
Talk to you soon,
Christopher Barrett
@cgbarrett

Source
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Some good changes inbound. Things that should have been in the start but it's better than nothing. glad 6v6 is returning
 
I did running in gauntlet with a zero mobility warlock - no excuse for people who claim they cannot jump with warlock haha :D

Been doing prestige levi the last two nights, did it 4 times now via LFG with really good success. Even did challenge mode callus on one. Very impressed with the competency of players LFG-ing for this on some of the sites.
 
Personally I'm happy they've adding Masterwork Armor at the end of January - the ability to re-roll armor types is a nice addition - still doesn't address the fact that armor is essentially cosmetic but it's progress
 
GAM8LE said:
I did running in gauntlet with a zero mobility warlock - no excuse for people who claim they cannot jump with warlock haha :D

Been doing prestige levi the last two nights, did it 4 times now via LFG with really good success. Even did challenge mode callus on one. Very impressed with the competency of players LFG-ing for this on some of the sites.
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Most of my Destiny 1 raids were completed with LFG sites and I had maybe 1 or 2 bad experiences the rest were always good. Didn't always clear the activity (it was rare that we didn't) but always had a good laugh as you're with like minded people. It partly why I don't want raids to have matchmaking. having to use a external LFG kind of filters out people who aren't serious about giving it a good go.
 
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