Poll: Exit Poll: UK General Election 2017 - Results discussion and OcUK Exit Poll - Closing 8th July

Exit poll: Who did you vote for?

  • Conservatives

    Votes: 302 27.5%

  • Labour

    Votes: 577 52.6%

  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 104 9.5%

  • Green

    Votes: 13 1.2%

  • UKIP

    Votes: 19 1.7%

  • Scottish National Party

    Votes: 30 2.7%

  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 6 0.5%

  • Other

    Votes: 46 4.2%
  • Total voters
    1,097
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D.P. said:
What ever happens the UK will get a bad deal, its merely a question of how bad and how good we can keep relations with our European neighbors. The EU holds all the negotiating power. However, Corbyn has a much better chance of slightly improving the deal and not turning things sour. May will be an absolute disaster, even given the fact she wont tractably be negotiating herself, but will be making the process much harder for our negotiations and will be straining foreign relations. Playing hardball never, ever works in negotiating, you set up the opposition to be extremely aggressive and less likely to compromise. We need the EU to compromise as much as possible so things turn out quite as terrible for the UK.
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We'll take no deal.
 
D.P. said:
You are way over estimating Thompson_NCL, who would love for the UK to turn in to WW2 Germany.

He liekly doesn't believe in the rights to life and would happily have certain people killed and supports capital punishment.
He liekly thinks it is fine to torture suspects, irrespective of the fact that is is provably useless.
He liekly thinks that getting prisoners to o forced labour is perfectly acceptable, and moreover that labour wouldn't have to be paid, i.e. prisoners can be slaves.
He only supports liberty and free speech for the far right
He liekly thinks innocent people can be deported pr sent to camps without trial, simply because they are on a government watch list.
He liekly doesn't believe in the right to marriage, unless you are heterosexual
He liekly doesn't think there should be freedom of religion and wants Islam outlawed
He liekly thinks liberal activists should not have the right to protest
He almost certainly thinks that you should be able to discriminate against Muslims, immigrants, blacks, jews, gays, and women.
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If the shoe fits...
 
D.P. said:
What ever happens the UK will get a bad deal, its merely a question of how bad and how good we can keep relations with our European neighbors. The EU holds all the negotiating power. However, Corbyn has a much better chance of slightly improving the deal and not turning things sour. May will be an absolute disaster, even given the fact she wont tractably be negotiating herself, but will be making the process much harder for our negotiations and will be straining foreign relations. Playing hardball never, ever works in negotiating, you set up the opposition to be extremely aggressive and less likely to compromise. We need the EU to compromise as much as possible so things turn out quite as terrible for the UK.
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It could also go the other way maybe?

If Corbyn is as principled as he makes out and is offered a poor deal with the EU and can't get a better one, what does he do?

If May, who was a remainer, is as weak in negotiations as we think, she'll just accept what is offered and work on how to spin it on the the train home :)

Just my thoughts.
 
Roar87 said:
It just means that more people have put money on Labour, that's how bookies work
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Not always, odds changes aren't always made due to the amount of money being placed on it, must have been a lot of people backing labour then over the space of a few hours if that is the reason though.
 
Ayahuasca said:
Labours odds have dropped from around 10/1 this morning to 8/1, likely means nothing at all but you never know...
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did odds on COns change at same time or are they still siting on 1/10

Ayahuasca said:
Not always, odds changes aren't always made due to the amount of money being placed on it, must have been a lot of people backing labour then over the space of a few hours if that is the reason though.
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but there is no real way for bookies to know that as they can only gauge based on exit polling and thats not always a great indicator ?
 
Ayahuasca said:
Not always, odds changes aren't always made due to the amount of money being placed on it, must have been a lot of people backing labour then over the space of a few hours if that is the reason though.
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It likely is in this case. Loads of last minute polls showing silly Labour swings make people think 'oh they are doing better than expected, the odds ill get at the bookies will be pretty good'. The polls are not only likely off the real vote share but the vote share is far from proportional to seat number and a lot of these labour votes will likely be soaked up in impossible to win constituencies like mine. The bookies know this more than anyone.

Odds tend to change quite a bit hours prior to an event just because you have the most people voting on it at that point.
 
Bah was looking sunny so popped out to vote and have just come back absolutely soaked.

Still done now, can forget about it until the results come in.
 
EddScott said:
It could also go the other way maybe?

If Corbyn is as principled as he makes out and is offered a poor deal with the EU and can't get a better one, what does he do?

If May, who was a remainer, is as weak in negotiations as we think, she'll just accept what is offered and work on how to spin it on the the train home :)

Just my thoughts.
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May has taken a position - we are leaving no matter if we get a good deal, a bad deal or (worse) no deal. Corbin has taken a position that we will take a deal no matter what we are given.

Neither is the best decision, but doe to not wanting to go back on the leave decision, no matter the consequences both have boxed themselves into a corner.

If you criticise Corbybs decision to announce he will take a deal whatever then the same criticism needs to be levelled at May for her open stance.
 
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