Poll: Exit Poll: UK General Election 2017 - Results discussion and OcUK Exit Poll - Closing 8th July

Exit poll: Who did you vote for?

  • Conservatives

    Votes: 302 27.5%
  • Labour

    Votes: 577 52.6%
  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 104 9.5%
  • Green

    Votes: 13 1.2%
  • UKIP

    Votes: 19 1.7%
  • Scottish National Party

    Votes: 30 2.7%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 6 0.5%
  • Other

    Votes: 46 4.2%

  • Total voters
    1,097
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Soldato
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Before my time but whenever I've heard Major speak I always thought he was thoroughly decent and the sort of Conservative the country would respond well to. I don't think he ever planned to be PM and did it because he thought it was the best thing for the party after Thatcher.

If I recall correctly, he was from a very modest background and so a classic "hard work reaps rewards" kind of person.
He was terrible, no charisma, zero charm and was one of the reason I voted labour in our 97.much now to my disgust, seeing what they did to the country.
 
Soldato
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I didn't vote labour and I'm not a Corbyn supporter, but I think your analysis misses the point. The conservatives did worse this time than they did in 2015, when they scraped a thin majority against lackluster Labour & Lib Dems. That's despite being the guardians/pimps of a populist brexit, and more importantly the complete demise of UKIP. A UKIP who were all nailed on to vote Tory. On paper it should have been almost impossible to do any worse than 2015.

But they still managed it.

Where do they go from here? It can only be a move to the centre, and that means a major rethink on core policy... which must include Brexit. But it appears they're doing anything but this with the DUP, and any attempt to move to the centre will rip the party apart.

They're also about to embark on a very public, painful and humiliating period of minority government, in which party splits will be writ large, and there will be soap opera levels of scheming and back stabbing within the leadership.

Labour on the other hand...

Only 4 weeks ago Corbyn was written off as an unelectable clown, with zero appeal outside the hardcore corbynistas. They're not laughing any more.

He can't be dismissed or ridiculed. He has electoral credibility. The infighting within the Labour party will stop.

He has the perfect platform to exploit the weakness of the opposition, and people now believe he can win.

The tories only have a few month to turn it round. They're ******...
Hardly they couldn't beat the Tories who ran the most toxic campaigns with mind boggling stupid social tax ideas in an actual manifesto. In fact I think the Tories actual wanted to lose so they didn't have to reside over brexit it was that bad.
All the new younger voters still couldn't help him across the line.

New Tory leader will bury him next time (October)
 
Soldato
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Couldn't have said it better myself.

The other thing of course is the youth vote which surely will increase now they have somebody who actually gets them. What can the Tories offer them?
Gets them?
Ha string them along, the nievity of these so called intelligent graduates falling for the regurgitated crap from the 70's is hilarious.
If it wasn't for fact how dangerous his ideas were, I would vote labour myself just so they experience the disaster themselves
 
Soldato
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Couldn't have said it better myself.

The other thing of course is the youth vote which surely will increase now they have somebody who actually gets them. What can the Tories offer them?
Free tuition? Students are fickle, they'll ditch their so called moral high ground for monetary gain at the click of the fingers.
 

NVP

NVP

Soldato
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It would be hilarious to see a dozen or more Tory MP's cross the floor to sit with Labour and vote down the Queens Speech. The scary thing is, it could happen and if it does, the one leg that Theresa May is standing on at the moment won't just be teetering on falling over, it'll be swept from under her completely. She'll HAVE to resign.

8QsbLfL.gif.png
 
Soldato
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Can somebody explain how Labour forming a minority government would work? Surely the conservatives being the larger party would vote them down?
 
Soldato
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Is it me or does the DUP leader appear genuinely scary?

Okay books, covers etc. but I can visualize her leading the rabble drumming out an unwelcome resident, "Be gone foul papist", or lighting the fires at the auto de fe?

Checking the news this morning it seems little has changed. May still there and still intent on pursuing a hard right Brexit/Tory agenda without the mandate to do so. All joking about pron aside, realistically though, what can we the normal people do to stop this train wreck from gathering motion? V For Vendetta style protests outside Parliament?
 
Soldato
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Can somebody explain how Labour forming a minority government would work? Surely the conservatives being the larger party would vote them down?

It'll probably work the same way as Labours manifesto.

Labour will implement things and they'll delude themselves that everyone will just do what they say without trying to circumvent it.
 
Soldato
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The independent ran an article on some DUP quotes from the past few years, some make absolutely hilarious reading.

On creationism
My view on the earth is that it's a young earth. My view is [it was created in] 4000 BC.
Edwin Poots, MLA for Lagan Valley, told Times columnist Mattew Parris in 2007.
He also told the Radio Times:
You’re telling me that cosmic balls of dust gathered and there was an explosion.
We’ve had lots of explosions in Northern Ireland and I’ve never seen anything come out of that that was good

Certainly not, and there are plenty of other people in this society who don't believe it either.
Mervyn Storey, former Education Minister when asked if he believed in Darwinism.

On blood donations
I think that people who engage in high-risk sexual behaviour in general should be excluded from giving blood.
And so someone who has sex with somebody in Africa or sex with prostitutes, I am very reluctant about those people being able to give blood

Edwin Poots, MLA for Lagan Valley, on BBC Sunday Politics, 2012

On their own leader, Arlene Foster
Her most important job is wife, mother and daughter.
Edwin Poots, MLA for Lagan Valley, BBC Radio Ulster, 12 January 2016

On same-sex marriage
It is really astounding that David Trimble should have had a man such as this giving him advice – and must surely cast grave doubts on his own political judgement.
I think these sorts of relationships are immoral, offensive and obnoxious.
Ian Paisley Jr, who won the seat of North Antrim and son of the party's founder, on learning that David Trimble, the former First Minister for Ireland, had a gay aide who just married his partner in Canada, in 2005.

On LGBT people
I am pretty repulsed by gay and lesbianism. I think it is wrong. I think that those people harm themselves and – without caring about it – harm society. That doesn't mean to say that I hate them – I mean, I hate what they do.
Ian Paisley Jr, who won the seat of North Antrim and son of the party's founder, speaking to Ireland's Hot Press magazine in 2005.

It wasn’t Iris Robinson [his wife] who determined that homosexuality was an abomination, it was the Almighty.
Peter Robinson, former First Minister for Northern Ireland, speaking to BBC Northern Ireland Hearts and Minds in 2008, defending his wife, Iris Robinson former MP for Strangford for calling homosexuality an 'abomination'.

I have a very lovely psychiatrist who works with me in my offices and his Christian background is that he tries to help homosexuals trying to turn away from what they are engaged in.
And I have met people who have turned around to become heterosexual.
Iris Robinson, former MP for Strangford, and wife of former First Minister for Northern Ireland, Peter Robinson, reacting to the news that a man had been assaulted because he was gay, in 2008.

There can be no viler act, apart from homosexuality and sodomy, than sexually abusing innocent children.
I cannot think of anything more sickening than a child being abused. It is comparable to the act of homosexuality. I think they are all comparable. I feel totally repulsed by both.
Iris Robinson, former MP for Strangford, and wife of former First Minister for Northern Ireland, Peter Robinson speaking in the House of Commons in 2008.

On Muslims
I'll be quite honest, I wouldn't trust them in terms of those who have been involved in terrorist activities. I wouldn't trust them if they are devoted to Sharia Law. I wouldn't trust them for spiritual guidance. Would I trust them to go down to the shops for me, yes I would, would I trust them to do day-to-day activities... there is no reason why you wouldn't....Why are you so concerned about Muslims and not poor people like me?

Peter Robinson, former First Minister for Northern Irealand speaking to the Irish News in 2014, where he supported a pastor who said in a sermon "Islam is heathen, Islam is satanic, Islam is a doctrine spawned in hell."

On same-sex parenting
Envisage, down the road, a child going to primary school and being collected by two females or two males, and the bullying and abuse to which those children will be exposed; or going into their parents’ bedroom, as is natural for a child to do, and finding two women or two men making love?
I stand by my faith and the word of God that man was created in the image of God and that woman was created from the rib of Adam to be his helpmeet and companion. That is the natural progression of procreation.
The word of God says that procreation is through a man and a woman.
We are moving mountains to facilitate immorality and to bring the rights of lesbians above all others in this country.
It is a shame, and honourable Members ought to hang their heads in shame.
Iris Robinson,former MP for Strangford, speaking in the House of Commons in 2008.

The facts show that certainly you don't bring a child up in a homosexual relationship ... that a child is far more likely to be abused or neglected ... in a non-stable marriage.
Jim Wells, Deputy Speaker of the Northern Irish Assembly, speaking at a hustings in 2015.

On Abortion
I would not want abortion to be as freely available here [Northern Ireland] as it is in England and don’t support the extension of the 1967 act
The group's leader and a First Minister of Northern Ireland Arlene Foster, speaking to the Guardian in 2016.

On Climate Change
I don’t care about Co2 emissions to be quite truthful...I still think climate change is a manmade con.
Sammy Wilson, MP for East Antrim since 2005, and former Northern Irish Assembly Environment Minister, who also said climate change campaigners views were a "hysterical pseudo-religion".

On Rihanna
[She was in an] inappropriate state of undress....
..If someone wants to borrow my field and things become inappropriate, then I say, ‘Enough is enough’...
I felt Rihanna was in more of a state of undress than a bikini top...Everybody needs to be acquainted with God and to consider his son, the Lord Jesus Christ, and his death and Resurrection

Alan Graham, a DUP alderman for North Down Borough Council, in 2011 after giving permission to Rihanna to film her video in his wheat field.



My favourite one is their hatred of their own leader because she is a woman!
HAHA!
 
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Can somebody explain how Labour forming a minority government would work? Surely the conservatives being the larger party would vote them down?

It doesn't really, it relies on conservative mps not voting or voting with the labour grouping.

I pulled the following together for my SC analysis post. Link

UK General Election Results by seat (Change in brackets) [1]
  • Conservatives - 318 (-13)
  • Labour - 262 (+30)
  • Scottish National Party - 35 (-21)
  • Liberal Democrats- 12 (+1)
  • Democratic Unionist Party - 10 (+2)
  • Sinn Fein - 7 (+3)
  • Plaid Cymru - 4 (+1)
  • Green Party -1 (0)
So as I'm sure we're all aware, it's a hung parliament. Now, given that Sinn Fein don't take their seats, and the deputy speaker and speaker generally don't vote, while a true majority requires 326 seats (650/2)+1, a working majority is slightly less, around 321 ((650-9)/2)+1

So given this, there are a few combinations that could command a working majority
  • Conservatives + Labour = 580
  • Conservatives + SNP = 353
  • Conservatives + Lib Dem = 330
  • Conservatives + DUP = 327
  • Conservatives + PC = 322
Notice that all these combinations require the conservatives to be involved. There is no scenario where Labour can command a majority with a single partner apart from the Conservatives, and even with two, in the most generous form, it cannot.
  • Labour + Lib Dem + SNP = 309
Now, given that we have a strong adversarial instinct on both sides of the house, where parties tend to whip their MPs to vote against their opponents regardless of the position or subject on anything important (such as the queen's speech or budget), a working majority is vital. Given that the SNP, Lib Dems and PC have all ruled out any form of working with the conservatives, and the numbers above for Labour, the only credible government is the combination of the Conservatives + DUP (who usually vote with the conservatives anyway by the whip).

Do I think this is good? No, a weakened government, depending on a confidence and supply arrangement with a small party rarely ends well. The Conservatives, as well as keeping the DUP on side, will also have to balance their Hard Brexit and remainer/soft brexit wings, or rely on heavy whipping to get the job done. It will make it easier for the EU to cause trouble during the negotiations (this is not a criticism of the EU, taking advantage of splits is a key negotiating tactic), and could make it very hard to get anything done domestically, especially if the opposition decides to play obstruction. The DUP is also very socially conservative and authoritarian, far more so than the modern conservative party in the rest of the UK.

Now, you could argue that the mps should stop being so tribal and form a government in the national interest, but that argument doesn't just apply to supporting labour. Both the snp and the lib dems could keep the dup out of government if they wanted to, but (at least publically) they haven't even acknowledged that or even considered what their demands would be,
 
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I see we're still blaming students for May's car crash.

I'm blaming all voters, not just students. Voters are responsible for the outcome of the elections, not parties or individual mps, as it is the individual voters that make the choices.

Students (or more accurately, the youth vote, not all of them are students) were part of that change that wasn't predicted, but it is not just the youth vote that fell for a unimplementable populist manifesto on one hand and a terrible campaign on the other.
 

TJM

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I see we're still blaming students for May's car crash.
I would like to hear an explanation of why young people should have voted for May, who is fully committed to a hard Brexit that will strip them of their rights as European citizens and cause an economic downturn (if not an outright recession) that will raise inflation, decrease wages in real terms and send jobs abroad. Some say we will have to suffer for long term gain. Even if that was true, why should the young have to endure it at the start of their adult lives just to satisfy middle-aged and elderly Brexiteers who already have their own careers and homes? If they are so keen on the idea, why didn't they push for it harder just as they were starting out in life?
 
Soldato
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Thought this was interesting. Watch from 8:59. Where have we heard this before? Hmm...

Blair on Question Time 20 years ago Video......

That was a great watch and reminded me what a charismatic leader Blair was in the run up to that election. Same public gravitas as Cameron.

May cannot not handle that type of opposition questioning with the light relief quips yet sincerity.

It is easy to see why the conservatives at the time lost to him. It is equally easy to see why there has been such a swing in public support away from May but not a clear win for Corbyn.

The public can only take so much austerity and divide; and without a charismatic dynamic young leader (late 30s early 40s) for people warm to, a conservative party is always going to struggle. Look at the impact Macron had in France.
 
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I would like to hear an explanation of why young people should have voted for May, who is fully committed to a hard Brexit that will strip them of their rights as European citizens and cause an economic downturn (if not an outright recession) that will raise inflation, decrease wages in real terms and send jobs abroad. Some say we will have to suffer for long term gain. Even if that was true, why should the young have to endure it at the start of their adult lives just to satisfy middle-aged and elderly Brexiteers who already have their own careers and homes? If they are so keen on the idea, why didn't they push for it harder just as they were starting out in life?

Most obviously, because of electoral maths. The current result increases the risk of a messy hard Brexit, especially as most of the Tories that lost their seats were moderates. May is going to require the support of her hardest Brexit supporting mps to get anything done, so while voting against the conservatives may feel better, the outcome is going to be worse than if, on a case by case basis, those wanting a softer Brexit had supported Tories where they stood. Corbyn never stood a chance of a majority government.

I voted remain, but we lost the referendum. I don't support a rerun as part of the negotiation, because it massively weakens our negotiating position. Likewise I don't support the idea that the government should ignore the referendum and remain in the eu. In order to move forward, we need to negotiate a good leaving deal. That required strength and realism, and now we don't have either.

The election made a hard Brexit (or a complete breakdown in negotiations) more likely than it was before, and that is the fault of the electorate, because the electorate are the only people responsible for their voting choices.
 
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