Former Russian double agent seriously ill in Salisbury.

[jpaul]

(sunshine the sequel to heat is pretty good too)

She has politically set an expectation of a response now, but it was a mistake to let the UK media drive the timeline and wag the dog.
Uk has had success at tracking down terrorists with increased surveillance capability, so unlike Litvinenko, (Lockerbee ...) and similar older cases maybe we can identify/prosecute assassins. (Lone wolf terrorist chemical attacks must already be under the scenarios contemplated)

But asynhronously she need sto address use of UK banks for laundering Russian money (also going into Putins&cousins pockets) that would get voter approval, but she would probbaly need to acknowledge why the oligarchs are paying into conservative funds too.

 

[LOAM]

Its probably just a massive smokescreen to mask a brexit bombshell. "omg everyone look over there, theres a topless putin lobbing nerve gas into a pizza restaurant from the back of a siberian tiger!!!"

 

[Chris Wilson]

Has the EU hierarchy done anything to show support to a still member state? This could be a golden opportunity for them to try and sway waverers to see how ongoing participation in the EU may be to our advantage. I suspect their arrogance and cowardice and division will prevail though.

 

[Rroff]

If she goes for a high profile aggressive response, she's falling right into the trap imo. Much better to say "don't worry, you'll get yours", and keep the responses covert.

I wouldn't announce any counter measures, even sanctions.

Yeah much better if you want to play tit for tat - find something that is a thorn in Russia's side and press on it - I dunno maybe accidentally supply some rebel group somewhere with anti-aircraft or anti-tank weapons, etc. - you get the gist.

Not that I advocate that course of action but it is the kind of thing Russia understands and doesn't tend to result in a direct escalation.

Ultimately we need to make sure we keep our nuclear deterrent robust, our ability to quickly deploy a hard hitting, effective core of troops around the world on a moments notice and an effective SIS etc. these are the things [that we have] Russia respects - it won't stop them occasionally bumping off the odd ex-spy or whatever on our streets but it stops them seeing us as laughing stock and raising the stakes any more than that - toothless barking of words maybe followed up by some banding about of sanctions or expelling the odd diplomat after talking tough just makes us look weak and Russia more daring.

 

[Hades]

I would like us to increase spending on defence. Indeed an appropriate response would be to announce exactly that.

 

[Rroff]

I would like us to increase spending on defence. Indeed an appropriate response would be to announce exactly that.

Have to be careful with that - they don't try and bankrupt us by bumping off more people to get a reactive increase in military spending each time that said as a reaction sticking more forces into one of the Baltic countries might give them a consideration against future actions like this if it was state sponsored/tacitly OK'd.

 

[Hades]

Have to be careful with that - they don't try and bankrupt us by bumping off more people to get a reactive increase in military spending each time that said as a reaction sticking more forces into one of the Baltic countries might give them a consideration against future actions like this if it was state sponsored/tacitly OK'd.

Good point about trying to bankrupt us. So let's seize Russian assets in the UK and spend those on an increase in defence spending.

 

[Freakbro]

Of course we won't be looking at any military options, anything we unilaterily do will likely just be expelling ambassadors or freezing assets.

What we can look at is class this as a chemical weapon attack from one state on another and take it to the UN convention on chemical weapons, where the countries signed up to that treaty are obliged to help any state that has suffered a chemical weapon attack. There are 190 countries signed up to that. Now that would give us the political clout to impose some more economic sanctions on Russia, dependent on how many countries step up to the plate.

 

[StriderX]

The issue is NOVICHOK is specifically designed to counteract the agreement, by you know being clandestine and hard to source it's user, it'd have to be absolutely clear evidence to pass any support from the group.

You'd have to make people sign again an amendment to include them... that's a waste of time right now.

It'd also present a headache for the UK and USA which are likely to be complicit in some form.

 

[dowie]

Yeah much better if you want to play tit for tat - find something that is a thorn in Russia's side and press on it - I dunno maybe accidentally supply some rebel group somewhere with anti-aircraft or anti-tank weapons, etc. - you get the gist.

Not that I advocate that course of action but it is the kind of thing Russia understands and doesn't tend to result in a direct escalation.

I wonder if there will be any additional response in Syria.

The UK/US killed a bunch of Russian troops only recently in an airstrike in Syria which left people in the Kremlin rather furious. (They were part of a Syrian attack on a rebel position).

Putin perhaps wasn't very happy at all about that as officially Russian troops aren't fighting and technically the troops killed were Russian contractors so he wasn't really able (or willing with the election nearby) to even acknowledge the incident took place let alone protest about Russians being killed deliberately in a Western air strike.

 

[Freakbro]

The issue is NOVICHOK is specifically designed to counteract the agreement, by you know being clandestine and hard to source it's user, it'd have to be absolutely clear evidence to pass any support from the group.

Absolutely, hence why May was hedging a little about it being the Russians and not directly making the formal accusation yet - ie: was it you or have you lost some of your illegal chemical weapons to a third party (neither of which the Russians are going to confirm of course) But from what the news seems to be saying, we know it's the Russians specifically because it is a Novichok chemical, and if the pollonium trail last time is anything to go by, they aren't the best at doing the job in a clandestine manner to cover their tracts.

 

[Firestar_3x]

Of course we won't be looking at any military options, anything we unilaterily do will likely just be expelling ambassadors or freezing assets.

Indeed Russia would have to start rolling across Europe before any military action happened.

The problem with sanctions and such is Vlad just turns it around to make him look great, he has been very sneaky for a while now, credit to him in some respects for this, he is fighting a slow burning information war in which you can't win, clearly Russia will never admit anything and anything we say is lies, how do you fight that?

 

[ubersonic]

One thing I find a bit concerning is that what they are doing with their tanks seems to be largely dismissed by the west - while a lot of focus is on the T-90 and Armata and the costly issues there they've been quietly upgrading a lot of the older T-80s to a very different tank underneath even though it still looks like a T-80 outwardly.

For those who like tanks there's actually a somewhat interesting reason for this:

Back in the USSR days the three main tanks were the T-64, the T-72 and the T-80. The T-64 was a top of the line tank designed and constructed in Ukraine, intended to be used in WW3 to counter western tanks is was never exported. The T-72 was a less capable but cheaper/faster to produce alternative designed/constructed in Russia which was used abroad and sold to international customers. Finally the T-80 was an improved T-64 designed in Ukraine and constructed in Ukraine and Russia.

After the fall of the USSR this left a problem for both Ukraine and Russia as both owned thousands of the others tanks and had no access to the parts factories. The obvious solution was a tank exchange, but as politicians don't do obvious the tanks were scrapped or put into storage.

Russia then decided to continue with development of the T-72 and redevelop the T-80 into the T-90. Ukraine decided to continue with development of the T-64 and redevelop the T-80 into the T-84.

On another interesting point, this is why the western media went crazy during the Ukrainian civil war when they caught sight of a "Russian tank in Ukraine that was never exported outside Russia", what they were actually seeing was a Soviet tank in the former USSR that was never exported outside the USSR.

We can seize Russian assets?
They like London

Lot's of European countries like London, it's the financial hub of Europe, however if we start stealing their money like you propose then there's a big danger many of them will like it less.

we know it's the Russians specifically because it is a Novichok chemical

There is a caveat to this, if it's a modern variant of Novichok we will know for certain it was them and it's use was essentially a calling card to make sure we know. If it's an older Soviet strain developed/stored outside Russia then that's less conclusive (yet still conclusive enough IMO) as dozens of state actors and even some criminal elements will have had access to it.

The problem with sanctions and such is Vlad just turns it around to make him look great

The cynic in me does suspect this was done to provoke a response that will help him in the Russian elections this year

 

[Angilion]

Absolutely, hence why May was hedging a little about it being the Russians and not directly making the formal accusation yet - ie: was it you or have you lost some of your illegal chemical weapons to a third party (neither of which the Russians are going to confirm of course) But from what the news seems to be saying, we know it's the Russians specifically because it is a Novichok chemical, and if the pollonium trail last time is anything to go by, they aren't the best at doing the job in a clandestine manner to cover their tracts.

Or maybe they know they don't have to do so for any longer than necessary for the killers to get away from the scene. Or maybe they want it traced back to them - if the intention is to display power and discourage disobedience, the source has to be known.

 

[Rroff]

For those who like tanks there's actually a somewhat interesting reason for this:

Back in the USSR days the three main tanks were the T-64, the T-72 and the T-80. The T-64 was a top of the line tank designed and constructed in Ukraine, intended to be used in WW3 to counter western tanks is was never exported. The T-72 was a less capable but cheaper/faster to produce alternative designed/constructed in Russia which was used abroad and sold to international customers. Finally the T-80 was an improved T-64 designed in Ukraine and constructed in Ukraine and Russia.

After the fall of the USSR this left a problem for both Ukraine and Russia as both owned thousands of the others tanks and had no access to the parts factories. The obvious solution was a tank exchange, but as politicians don't do obvious the tanks were scrapped or put into storage.

Russia then decided to continue with development of the T-72 and redevelop the T-80 into the T-90. Ukraine decided to continue with development of the T-64 and redevelop the T-80 into the T-84.

On another interesting point, this is why the western media went crazy during the Ukrainian civil war when they caught sight of a "Russian tank in Ukraine that was never exported outside Russia", what they were actually seeing was a Soviet tank in the former USSR that was never exported outside the USSR.

That is quite an interesting explanation - was aware of a good bit of that, mostly in respect to the T-72, but didn't realise the T-80 had such a background.

I think its being a bit underestimated though that Russia is taking its stored/reserve stock of T-80s and turning them into essentially a different and more capable tank underneath while redeploying them to other theatres - while the attention is on the T-90 and Armata the T-80 has become somewhat less irrelevant than it used to be.

 

[sigma]

The Russians must be chuckling at the results of their recent destabilising efforts.

 

[Sankari]

 

[Semple]

Snip

Stealing this!

Whilst the UK hasn't got a hope in hells chance of some form of retaliation against Russia, there are a lot of Russian Oligarchs in London with a lot of property. Would be easy to put travel bans on them and seize this property until they could prove how it was funded (which probably half of them won't be able to do).

Any other sort of response will just get laughed at.

 

[ubersonic]

Whilst the UK hasn't got a hope in hells chance of some form of retaliation against Russia, there are a lot of Russian Oligarchs in London with a lot of property. Would be easy to put travel bans on them and seize this property until they could prove how it was funded (which probably half of them won't be able to do).

Great idea, lets hit Russia where it hurts, in our own wallet >.>

 

[antijoke]

It's a handy distraction from Brexit isn't it.