Former Russian double agent seriously ill in Salisbury.

Caporegime
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I know it's been done to death but there is no way at all that he would have survived what they told us.

VX, and agent that's supposedly 5-8 times LESS deadly that Novichok, takes about 2 minutes from contact with that agent to a state where you are in a complete convulsion and therefor cannot breath under any control - so you die not long after. So it takes an agent that is 5-8 times less potent than Novichok roughly two and a half minutes to kill you with a lethal does being 15mg(0.2mg per kg - based on a 70kg person). Novichok works in a very similar way to VX, but it takes less to kill you and I think onset of symptoms will be faster with the same absorption rates, and we know it was very pure, so faster effect, because the OPCW analyzed the samples given by the UK.

Yes, absorption will be slower on skin than mucus membranes(mouth/lungs etc) so would take longer to kill - 5 minutes or so. But you would take a tiny dose of 2mg to kill someone, so you can kill 500 people with 1 gram of the stuff - I would say it's fairly toxic!

I do think a nerve agent was used, but something less toxic with similar symptoms.

I suspect that the scientists at DSTL know a bit more about it than you... ergo I think I'll be more likely to believe them than your armchair expert analysis. You don't know what sort of concentration of the stuff was used and seemingly there are plenty of factors that affect how lethal it is. You're just speculating whereas people who have analysed the actual samples and a third party that has analysed the actual samples have confirmed the nerve agent type used. I don't think you're in any position to contradict the official narrative simply by speculation.
 
Soldato
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I'm not sure if the purity in this case is an indication of the effectiveness of the final product but rather an indication that the precursors, etc. were created in a highly equipped lab operating to high standards - which would tend to indicate state involvement rather than someone brewing it up in their garage, etc.

We do have Uzumcu's statement, confirmed by an official OPCW statement, that the finished product was not only high purity, but persistent and resistant to weather conditions.


EDIT: I have to say though the initial comments and statements, etc. from the earliest people involved sounded far more like typical observations of victims of something like Curare than previous descriptions of typical effects of Novichok.

What is also a bit odd and could be called the "second miracle of Salisbury" is that a nerve agent allegedly designed to take effect after three or four hours, took effect on both victims simultaneously, without a difference of minutes during which one of them could have called for assistance for the other. Not saying it's impossible but it is quite remarkable. Army nurse happened to be on-hand, passing by, and gave assistance. Not impossible in a military Salisbury, but also interesting perhaps. These three professors (who were attacked by The Times as basically being traitors) believe it likelier that they were attacked shortly before their collapse on the bench:


Although it is possible that a nerve agent could be prepared in a formulation that would be absorbed only slowly through the skin, it is implausible that two individuals exposed through contact with the front door would have received doses that caused them to collapse suddenly and so nearly simultaneously that neither had time to call for help, at least three hours later. It is more likely that they were attacked shortly before they were found collapsed on the park bench.

http://syriapropagandamedia.org/working-papers/briefing-note-update-on-the-salisbury-poisonings


They also suggest an interesting motive for UK intelligence being behind it, and mention one of the Pablo Miller DSMA notices (there are known to be two) the government issued to journalists:


Sergei Skripal’s link with Orbis: possible motive for murder

In the first few days after the poisoning there were media reports that Sergei Skripal had been in regular contact with his MI6 handler, whose Linked-In profile had stated that he was a consultant for Orbis Business Intelligence. It appears that this profile was deleted by March 7, and a Defence and Security Media Advisory Notice was issued to caution journalists against disclosing the identity of this consultant. However at Skripal’s trial in 2007 his MI6 handler had been identified as Pablo Miller, and the link between Skripal and Miller had been described in detail by Russian opposition media on 6 March.

This link between Skripal and Orbis may be relevant to the dossier compiled by Christopher Steele, the founder of Orbis, containing derogatory information on Donald Trump’s alleged ties to Russia. This dossier had been used by the FBI to apply for a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act court order authorizing surveillance of Trump’s campaign. By early 2018 the unravelling of this story was creating serious difficulties for Steele and for those he had worked with. These difficulties included a referral for criminal investigation by two US Senators, a libel case in the US against the publisher of the dossier which had led to a court ruling that Steele should be questioned in an English court, and a libel case in England against Orbis and Steele. It is not difficult to postulate a situation in which the potential for damage to US-UK relations could have provided a motive for actors on both sides of the Atlantic to ensure that Sergei Skripal would not be available to give evidence.

http://syriapropagandamedia.org/working-papers/briefing-note-update-on-the-salisbury-poisonings


The UK government also issued a DSMA notice for the non-revelation of Steele's identity back in January 2017, but that one was ignored by the media (I think because American press had already revealed it anyway, so it was a bit farcical).

Detective Sergeant Nick Bailey's life is not believed to be under threat from Russia, yet detail of his precise actions that day, and interviews with him, are conspicuously absent as well. What little we've been told is that enough of the nerve agent allegedly penetrated his gloves, yet, when beginning to feel unwell at his home, he was able to drive himself to the hospital. Some of this has reached the public through Met statements, some of it through these "unnamed Whitehall sources" which have continuously been feeding the press, in lieu of official government statements. So even the little that we are told, is questionable.

The homes, the vehicles, of all the policemen and women who stepped outside Skripal's home (pictures indicate there were plenty and there'd be even more who weren't pictured), and who would have presumably smeared the highly resistant and weather persistent Novichok that the Skripals themselves stepped on, to other places, have not been impounded. Nor has any indication been offered that their own movements have been meticulously traced in order to clean everything their shoes touched. This seems to be at odds with the story that the Skripals stepped on the Novichok that the rain washed from the door handle and smeared it around Salisbury as they walked. Surely, everyone else who stepped on or near that porch in the following days (well before any clean-up), would have done the same.
 
Man of Honour
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The homes, the vehicles, of all the policemen and women who stepped outside Skripal's home (pictures indicate there were plenty and there'd be even more who weren't pictured), and who would have presumably smeared the highly resistant and weather persistent Novichok that the Skripals themselves stepped on, to other places, have not been impounded. Nor has any indication been offered that their own movements have been meticulously traced in order to clean everything their shoes touched. This seems to be at odds with the story that the Skripals stepped on the Novichok that the rain washed from the door handle and smeared it around Salisbury as they walked. Surely, everyone else who stepped on or near that porch in the following days (well before any clean-up), would have done the same.

Some of them have been - there was a big operation near me complete with CW tents, etc. to extract several vehicles which were taken away on low loaders all wrapped up in tarpaulins.

EDIT: Can only find news for one of them https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/army-move-dorset-town-residents-12185257
 
Soldato
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Some of them have been - there was a big operation near me complete with CW tents, etc. to extract several vehicles which were taken away on low loaders all wrapped up in tarpaulins.

EDIT: Can only find news for one of them https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/army-move-dorset-town-residents-12185257

Good shout, and I do remember those low-loaders and van mentioned (and the car belonging to Skripal's friend who drove them from the airport to Salisbury, eventually impounded two weeks after the incident). To be more precise I meant regular police transport (did see pics of several vehicles parked outside the home with police officers standing very close to the doorway for example), and their personal vehicles.

The local police station is sealed (or was) and getting/got a clean-up, so why not the homes of all the officers who spent time on duty at the Skripal residence or who were in that police station. A reported ninety police/emergency personnel have required psychological counselling. Is this in light of what they have been told about the Novichok and how it was spread to other areas, possibly contrasted with the actual limitations of the clean-up?
 
Man of Honour
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Good shout, and I do remember those low-loaders and van mentioned (and the car belonging to Skripal's friend who drove them from the airport to Salisbury, eventually impounded two weeks after the incident). To be more precise I meant regular police transport (did see pics of several vehicles parked outside the home with police officers standing very close to the doorway for example), and their personal vehicles.

The local police station is sealed (or was) and getting/got a clean-up, so why not the homes of all the officers who spent time on duty at the Skripal residence or who were in that police station. A reported ninety police/emergency personnel have required psychological counselling. Is this in light of what they have been told about the Novichok and how it was spread to other areas, possibly contrasted with the actual limitations of the clean-up?

There seems to be some odd fragmentation and timescales to it - a couple of vehicles were removed near me about 4 weeks later - not 100% on the police vehicles but these were some other vehicles that were at the scene and later driven away.
 
Associate
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I wonder what the UK will do next year to distract everybody from something else. Russia never had I assume any involvement with the nerve agent just my opinion since the start. Of course I don't want to start any conspiracy theory's but I am sure many of you know who I believe are to blame :p.
 
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At his own request. He wanted to show the word what had been done to him.

Was it though? It looked like it was taken from the corridor without permission and he looked none too happy about it. It was a long time ago so I could be wrong.

Wait so is your argument here that the UK government perfectly faked the last Russian assassination but screwed this one up?

I just asked if he was actually in hospital or not :confused:
 
Commissario
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Was it though? It looked like it was taken from the corridor without permission and he looked none too happy about it. It was a long time ago so I could be wrong.



I just asked if he was actually in hospital or not :confused:
I suspect he wasn't too happy, he'd been poisoned as was dying in a very unpleasant way.

As for it looking like it was taken from a corridor, they're not exactly going to move him to a photographic studio and there isn't really much space in most hospital rooms, especially intensive care etc to get a good shot of even the best looking super model, let alone a guy who may have been unable to get out of the hospital bed without assistance and was likely suffering from multiple organ failure.
 
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I wonder what the UK will do next year to distract everybody from something else. Russia never had I assume any involvement with the nerve agent just my opinion since the start. Of course I don't want to start any conspiracy theory's but I am sure many of you know who I believe are to blame :p.
You don't want to start a conspiracy theory but seem happy to run along with them:)

On the one hand we've got someone who was a "traitor" to Russia, a country that has a long and repeated history of "dealing" with traitors and anyone who upsets the leadership, often in very public ways, and a story from their government that changes constantly but tends to have a "we didn't do it, but he had it coming and all traitors deserve to die *wink* *wink*" message, on the other hand you've got pretty much the rest of the world agreeing that it was most likely done by the Russians, either officially or (potentially more scarily) unofficially by people who managed to get hold of chemical weapons that should be extremely tightly controlled.
 
Soldato
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Was it though? It looked like it was taken from the corridor without permission and he looked none too happy about it. It was a long time ago so I could be wrong.

So why not just check rather than rely on a distant memory :confused:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=litvinenko+images

And I'm pretty sure the not looking happy is due to dying of radiation poisoning rather than being unhappy with his picture being taken without his permission :rolleyes:
 
Soldato
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I wonder what the UK will do next year to distract everybody from something else. Russia never had I assume any involvement with the nerve agent just my opinion since the start. Of course I don't want to start any conspiracy theory's but I am sure many of you know who I believe are to blame :p.

No one else had any motive to do it, plus Russia has been bumping "traitors" off for years and not just in the UK. In 2005ish Putin even made it legal for the KGB to kill people abroad, soon after they killed Litvinenko and it's not really stopped since.
 
Soldato
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No one else had any motive to do it, plus Russia has been bumping "traitors" off for years and not just in the UK. In 2005ish Putin even made it legal for the KGB to kill people abroad, soon after they killed Litvinenko and it's not really stopped since.

Pretty much anything happening in the world these days will be spun as a UK/US/Israel/Inside job.
 
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