Poll: General election voting round 4

[scorza]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...n-us-2012-predicts-uk-general-election-result

Nate Silver, the guy who correctly predicted how each state would vote in the 2012 presidential election, has predicted our election result:

Silver revealed that a model he backs puts the Conservatives on 283 seats, Labour on 270, the SNP on 48, the Lib Dems on 24, the DUP on eight, Ukip on one and the other parties on 16. This suggests that no two parties would be able to form a majority without the help of a third, leading to the possibility of a so-called rainbow coalition.

Basically the only thing that can stop this chaos is if voters in Scotland see sense and have a last minute swing to Labour from the SNP. You can clearly see how a vote for the SNP is a vote for a Conservative government.

 

[peige]

Large parts of our legislature aren't out of our control. The EU remains primarily a trading partnership. We're bound by rules we agree to, and which are necessary to maintain the functioning of a single market. Leaving the EU would do little to limit the impact of that regulation on us (since we mostly change with Europe anyway) and simply remove our ability to control it at all.

I'm not convinced being one voice in the crowd of people making the rules really makes that much difference, how many of those rules do we really agree too. Worse still, we are one of the few countries that actually makes an effort to adhere to the rules.

 

[scorza]

I'm not convinced being one voice in the crowd of people making the rules really makes that much difference, how many of those rules do we really agree too. Worse still, we are one of the few countries that actually makes an effort to adhere to the rules.

Exactly, we never get listened to in Europe even though we're often right. Example is Jean-Claude Juncker's election to EC President - everyone knew that Britain was right and he was the wrong man at the wrong time for the job, but they went ahead anyway, a few countries also objected but then dropped that objection when Angela promised them a better deal on an unrelated matter. That doesn't sit well with my sense of British fair play.

 

[the_r_sole]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...n-us-2012-predicts-uk-general-election-result

Nate Silver, the guy who correctly predicted how each state would vote in the 2012 presidential election, has predicted our election result:



Basically the only thing that can stop this chaos is if voters in Scotland see sense and have a last minute swing to Labour from the SNP. You can clearly see how a vote for the SNP is a vote for a Conservative government.

Imagine the guardian producing an article aimed at getting people to tactically vote for labour....
Problem is, Labour are pretty much finished up here, so it's a hard sell

 

[thep02]

No UKIP support is vast, it's just spread evenly across the country which doesn't work out very well in a FPTP system.

Doesn't seem fair that UKIP will get many more votes than Lib Dem but will be represented by only a handful of seats.

Agreed.

 

[Trifid]

Basically the only thing that can stop this chaos is if voters in Scotland see sense and have a last minute swing to Labour from the SNP. You can clearly see how a vote for the SNP is a vote for a Conservative government.

Not really. Conservatives will not have enough support to form a coalition based on those numbers. (Unless Labour and conservatives form a coalition together)

 

[robgmun]

Could this be the thing that undoes Milliband?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...Labour-leader-leaving-comedian-s-2m-home.html

I know Brand the Hypocrite is popular with the younger people but what does the core Labour think?

I tell you what, why don't we have a 'Millionaires Fame tax' to help the poor, surely he would be happy with that?

 

[scorza]

Not really. Conservatives will not have enough support to form a coalition based on those numbers. (Unless Labour and conservatives form a coalition together)

Conservatives would be the largest party though, which means they'll get the first chance to form a government though. I don't particularly think we should trust Nate Silver's predictions any more than anyone elses - the UK election is a lot more difficult to predict than the US one. However if that were to be the result then I think the most likely outcome is another general election, so voters in Scotland may as well just vote Labour now as it's the only thing that'll break the stalemate.

 

[joeyjojo]

Basically the only thing that can stop this chaos is if voters in Scotland see sense and have a last minute swing to Labour from the SNP. You can clearly see how a vote for the SNP is a vote for a Conservative government.

It's not actually Nate's work this year, he's just partnered with the www.electionforecast.co.uk model (same one you can see on www.may2015.com as well).

Anyway Scotland voting SNP doesn't help the Conservatives one bit, because they're "anti-Tory" and likely to support a Labour govt. Read the article below for explanation.

Election 2015: Polls suggest Ed Miliband is likely to become Prime Minister

There are some followups to this article too, click "features".

 

[scorza]

Could this be the thing that undoes Milliband?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...Labour-leader-leaving-comedian-s-2m-home.html

I know Brand the Hypocrite is popular with the younger people but what does the core Labour think?

I tell you what, why don't we have a 'Millionaires Fame tax' to help the poor, surely he would be happy with that?

Brand isn't my cup of tea but I don't see the problem if it'll bring a few more votes over to Labour. That is the job a politician after all, to win popularity contests.

Tell me how your 'millionnaires fame tax' would work? Sounds interesting

 

[scorza]

It's not actually Nate's work this year, he's just partnered with the www.electionforecast.co.uk model (same one you can see on www.may2015.com as well).

Anyway Scotland voting SNP doesn't help the Conservatives one bit, because they're "anti-Tory" and likely to support a Labour govt. Read the article below for explanation.

Election 2015: Polls suggest Ed Miliband is likely to become Prime Minister

There are some followups to this article too, click "features".

The only way to stop a Conservative government is for Labour to have enough MPs to be able to form a coalition with the LibDems (yesterday Clegg ruled out working with any party propped up by the SNP and I don't blame him for that), therefore some of those putative SNP seats need to swing red or we'll all be doomed to blue. And let's face it, the SNP want a Conservative government as it suits their narrative - imo Nicola Sturgeon would quite happily see the UK burn if it meant Scotland was closer to independence, I wouldn't accept her support at all if I were Ed, and to be fair he isn't.

 

[joeyjojo]

I don't like this graph, look at ones for all the other countries of the world and you will find a similar trend, it is NOT just UK's fault for the slow recovery it is a global trend. This is the closest I have come across just from a quick google for USA

http://andolfatto.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/how-far-are-we-from-trend.html

Quite interesting, but the USA did a fair bit of cutting and QE too, and are having the same debates about austerity. Comparing to e.g. Germany or Australia would be more useful, but I can't find any log-linear charts for them. The best I could do is

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/gdp (click other countries for comparison)

Of course there are a multitude of ways Germany and Australia differ from the UK and the USA, but they don't have the big dip in output that was predicted by economists under austerity, and sure enough appears in the charts for "austere" (lol) countries.

 

[robgmun]

Tell me how your 'millionnaires fame tax' would work? Sounds interesting

Like the property tax, anyone worth more than 2 million and classed as an entertainer then you can pay your way (just joking around but imagine how RB would flip if that was introduced )

 

[joeyjojo]

The only way to stop a Conservative government is for Labour to have enough MPs to be able to form a coalition with the LibDems (yesterday Clegg ruled out working with any party propped up by the SNP and I don't blame him for that), therefore some of those putative SNP seats need to swing red or we'll all be doomed to blue.

Good points. I have a feeling some of these "rulings out" will be reneged on when it comes to the crunch though.

Rather than predicting it, hasn't he instead gone, "I HAVE NO IDEA , but these www.electionforecast.co.uk people seem to have a reasonable model/method... so... err... yeah, that's my prediction, too "?

Pretty much! But it's given them some good exposure.

 

[ubersonic]

This gives a VERY skewed result as No way in hell would I vote for any of those !!

You can't actually vote for coalitions anyway to be fair, they probably didn't put UKIP on the options for the same reason they didn't put the monster raving looney party, because they aren't going to get anywhere near enough seats to be a worthwhile coalition partner for anybody.

 

[McGray]

Basically the only thing that can stop this chaos is if voters in Scotland see sense and have a last minute swing to Labour from the SNP. You can clearly see how a vote for the SNP is a vote for a Conservative government.

I don't know how you got that from those numbers?

They point to a Labour/SNP government.

 

[StriderX]

It will either be a Labour/SNP government or a failed Conservative/everyone else one 6 months down the line, regardless Westminster would not dare elongate the crap that would insue if they do not come to an agreement, the less parties there are needing to prop up government, the less problems.

Both benefit Labour, all in due part thanks to UKIP voters.

 

[scorza]

I don't know how you got that from those numbers?

They point to a Labour/SNP government.

According to those numbers, the Conservatives would have the largest number of MPs and Labour + SNP wouldn't be enough to form a government.

 

[McGray]

EDIT: I may be wrong on this.

 

[ubersonic]

According to those numbers, the Conservatives would have the largest number of MPs and Labour + SNP wouldn't be enough to form a government.

Another ConDem coalition would be outnumbered by Lab/SNP/etc and beaten on every vote, however a LabLib coalition would work because although they wouldn't have 325 they would be able to count on the SNP to either vote with them or abstain (to avoid siding with he Tories), the only exception being Trident which would have Tory backing anyway.