Poll: General election voting round 5 (final one)

[D.P.]

Given how inaccurate polls have recently been, I think it'll be interesting and somewhat amusing to see just how far off they are this time, in 1992 for example, they were predicting either a hung parliament or a small Labour majority for pretty much the whole of the campaign yet the Conservatives ended up with 336 seats over Labours 271!

In the last general election, pre election polls predicted large gains for the Liberal Democrats which ultimately failed to materialise.

It'll be undoubtedly interesting to see how it all pans out, I'm expecting a Labour / SNP coalition (despite what Miliband says to the contrary) and then watch the fireworks once England wakes up to the fact their dog (Poodle?) has a very Scottish nationalist tail.....

I agree that historically polls have been pretty useless in the UK. But this year we have more polls than ever, and the agreement is extremely close (previous election often had 5-7% difference between pollsters). Polling methodology has also improved a lot. Even in 2010 online polling was scarce. We also have wide spread Ashcroft polls of individual constituencies of key marginal seats. Previously there was much less polling of seats, the pollster more aimed for population samples.

 

[Scania]

92 was a long time ago now. Polls have come a long way since then.

I think the Tories will do better, as will the Lib Dems, and the opposite for Labour and the SNP. But not by much. I think the arithmetic will make any deal practically impossible. Even an Lab/SNP coalition might not be enough.



I'm no sure how the Labour party reinvent themselves in Scotland now, without alienating parts of England.

Agreed about the polls, but it's still an example of how wholly wrong they can be - and tbh I do think they are wrong still.

Whilst I think the Tories will do better, I'm tbh expecting Clegg & co to pay a heavy price for going into coalition in the first place (never mind tuition fees) so that could well cancel them out all together.

I think Labour, once the country starts to appreciate that they were the foundation layers of all this **** with their grandiose plans could find themselves in need of a major reinvention across the whole UK, but, having seen what one vision of "New" Labour has already turned out like - Blair / Iraq / Brown etc - I don't think they'll get a second chance, we are all in for huge change I fear, and not change that's going to work well for us as a nation.

 

[Stretch]

Because he doesn't need a deal, the chance of the SNP voting in anyway to allow the Tories is are extremely slim, would be very damaging to the SNP., and the Tories wouldN't like it ether.

The SNP can and will vote down any budget which cuts spending in Scotland. A Labour government needs to cut spending to fulfil its manifesto commitments.

Implicitly, a minority Labour government will have to heed the SNP. Otherwise, the government will collapse.

I don't think it's a hard sell for the nationalists in Scotland. They can argue they get unwanted cuts from Labour or Tory. They can take this message init into the 2016 Scottish elections asking for another referendum.

 

[PermaBanned]

I know they'll say anything for votes but how can the spin doctors turn around Ed's very clear claim that he won't do deals or coalitions?

Probably under the quite likely assumption that he won't have to to form a government.

 

[D.P.]

The SNP can and will vote down any budget which cuts spending in Scotland. A Labour government needs to cut spending to fulfil its manifesto commitments.

Implicitly, a minority Labour government will have to heed the SNP. Otherwise, the government will collapse.

I don't think it's a hard sell for the nationalists in Scotland. They can argue they get unwanted cuts from Labour or Tory. They can take this message init into the 2016 Scottish elections asking for another referendum.

No, the SNP will vote for a smaller spending cut with labour than a larger one with the Tories.

If the SNP really play hardball then th worst outcome would be a new election The SNp won't be able to do any better, they may even end up loosing seats.

 

[Stretch]

No, the SNP will vote for a smaller spending cut with labour than a larger one with the Tories.

What they want is fiscal autonomy, not deals with the UK party's. Clearly this is what they're angling for, and if they don't get some movement, expect trouble. The SNP can't really lose, unless Labour lay a risky trap, which they won't, because they're too chicken.

If the SNP really play hardball then th worst outcome would be a new election The SNp won't be able to do any better, they may even end up loosing seats.

The SNP don't give a **** about Westminster. It's a means to an end.

If they can show the system to be dysfunctional, they're not getting any movement on new devolved powers, possible new Tory government, they win big in the 2016 Scottish elections, new referendum, feeeedom.

 

[StriderX]

I think the SNP leadership is realising the risks of establishment tricks.

 

[D.P.]

What they want is fiscal autonomy, not deals with the UK party's. Clearly this is what they're angling for, and if they don't get some movement, expect trouble. The SNP can't really lose, unless Labour lay a risky trap, which they won't, because they're too chicken.

I guess we will see, thr SNP have the balance of power.

 

[A2Z]

http://benjaminstudebaker.com/2015/05/02/britain-for-the-love-of-god-please-stop-david-cameron/

Interesting read..

 

[Tacitus]

The SNP can and will vote down any budget which cuts spending in Scotland. A Labour government needs to cut spending to fulfil its manifesto commitments.

Implicitly, a minority Labour government will have to heed the SNP. Otherwise, the government will collapse.

I don't think it's a hard sell for the nationalists in Scotland. They can argue they get unwanted cuts from Labour or Tory. They can take this message init into the 2016 Scottish elections asking for another referendum.

Alright settle down, the election isn't until tomorrow (well, technically today now).

I reckon the SNP won't get as many seats as polls predict, quite a lot of Scottish constituencies haven't been individually polled and as a result the pollsters assume widespread strength. Not to mention that some people will bottle it on the day and just vote Labour. With that said, Scottish Labour is truly in absolute disarray, Murphy was a disastrous choice of leader - Johann Lamont stood down as she felt Scottish Labour was treated as a "branch office" and now someone who isn't even an MSP is leading them, and he can't shake his Blairite image. Campaigning in both Edinburgh and my home constituency on Labour's part has been disastrous, and the SNP were quite cleverly at all major commuter train stations this morning to talk to voters.

Overall, I think Labour will finish up with around 300 seats and be able to run a minority government, supported on occasion by the Lib Dems or SNP

On to your other point, the Nationalists might want to argue for another referendum after they inevitably win next year's Scottish elections, but Holywrood doesn't have that power - it was temporarily transferred for last year's one. It'd be a ruinous PM who gave Scotland another referendum - I'm of the view it should be case closed for good, as would have been the case in the event of a Yes vote.

 

[foster grant]

Interesting reading

Now for some sleep .

 

[Rroff]

http://benjaminstudebaker.com/2015/05/02/britain-for-the-love-of-god-please-stop-david-cameron/

Interesting read..

Way too shallow analysis IMO - of course consumer spending was going to decrease with the decrease in consumer confidence due to prevailing conditions - government spendings link to that is far more convoluted and less directly linked.

 

[Spook187]

Hopefully shut a few of you right wing people up if labour win

 

[McPhee]

I'm not really sure the public have fully decided how they are voting yet, so there's every chance for a big swing. I mean, most of the press have put a lot of energy in to attacking and undermining Labour, making people think twice before voting for them. At the same time, there seems to be a general feeling that something's a bit 'off' about the coalition and the Conservative party in particular - you very much get the impression that their priority isn't the people. Then there's UKIP. The only party with the stones to do anything significant about immigration, a significant worry on a lot of minds, but does voting for them make us racist? And do we actually want to leave the EU?

Even more so than 2010, I don't think people really know who to vote for. I think the only certainty is that the Lib Dems will lose a lot of seats as TBH nobody particularly likes the party any more. They don't really stand for anything. Aside from that, I don't think any assumptions can be made about results.

 

[robgmun]

FINAL @dailymirror poll. Headline is ballot paper. Sample size 4088:
CON 31.4% LAB 31.4% UKIP 15.7% LD 9.6% GRE 4.8 SNP 4.7% PC 0.4 AP 1.9%

 

[Cosimo]

Final polls in the Times:

A YouGov eve-of-election survey of 10,307 adults has Labour and the Conservatives tied on 34 per cent of the vote. Ukip is on 12 per cent while the Lib Dems have 10 per cent and the SNP has 5.

In Scotland, a poll of 1,351 voters puts the SNP on 48 per cent and Labour on 28, while the Tories languish on 14 per cent, the Lib Dems are on 7 and Ukip and the Greens have 1 per cent each.

 

[Bear]

Gotta love the rhetoric, "don't leave Scotland"...but, "stay away from our "English" parliament".

So much ammo for the SNP, they could literally not bother with public relations and still win loads, sometimes wonder at the mental efficacy of the nation.

Thats easy to say for a Scots to say, but we have parties that are supposed to govern for UK as a whole. The SNP only care about Scotland, so why should we want the SNP to have power over us.

The farce and hypocricy of the Scots position you posted above, is that the Scots have been whining for years that you get a Conservative government despite not voting for one (you do have the ability to vote for one though and they do have 1 seat) but you decry that we moan about the SNP having effect over us despite not being able to vote for them and therefore non elected and non electable by the English

 

[Maccapacca]

Strange turning the radio on this morning to hear the obvious random topics that don't involve the election.

Why are we not allowed to talk about it?

 

[the_r_sole]

The problem with the SNP is they don't have the inconvenience of actually running a country. Policy ideas ore cheap, and that's hard to fight.

Erm... You do know what sturgeon does with her spare time right?

 

[McPhee]

Final polls in the Times:

A YouGov eve-of-election survey of 10,307 adults has Labour and the Conservatives tied on 34 per cent of the vote. Ukip is on 12 per cent while the Lib Dems have 10 per cent and the SNP has 5.

Interesting that the entry polls are so similar.