Tbh, I call BS on 18a being further along then 20a.18A first product is Clearwater Forest and launch is expected in June/July next year, around a year after Sierra Forest. Panther lake should be Q4. There are not that many differences between 20A and 18A, and judging by the DD published for 18A it should be already a pretty healthy node (compute tile of panther lake should have around a 60% yield a year before launch). Nova Lake is probably 18AP which provides a 10% improvement in perf per watt. But that’s late 26.
Edit: and yes 20A is dead and I don’t expect a ARL-S refresh if it happens on 18A, it will probably still use N3B
Intel has been very quiet about 20a in general, initially saying how well it was coming along.