Well, i think the strat should have started at Hungary. Working it actually out. +7 points there. Switched drivers today, +2. That gives us 250 points for Norris, 303 for Max. 53 point gap. But if you include the daft dive from Piastri today and Norris/Piastri had come home with a 1/2. Norris would have another 10 extra points. 260 to 303, 43 point gap with 200 points up for graps still. Norris has given up 20 points in 4 races. It's obvs still possible but you kinda need to take every point you can get when you're in Lando's position going into the 2nd half of the season. McLaren haven't set up to do that, they've arsed about. Max will win by 10 points or something.
Max isn't going to come 6th/7the every race til the end. If he did and Norris came in the top 3, i think there would be enough races to close the gap. Would go to the wire