Poll: Poll: Prime Minister Theresa May calls General Election on June 8th

[Rilot]

Down on what it usually is especially as the UKIP vote is much lower than normal. The Lib-Dem vote is much higher than usual. If the election happens with the usual OCUK poll rating it means the Tories are in trouble and the LDs will gain quite a few seats.

The last GE poll on here is here: https://forums.overclockers.co.uk/threads/general-election-voting-round-5-final-one.18668791/

This was the final poll:



Tory vote near as damnit the same percentage as today. The big difference is the non Tory vote distribution.
Interestingly, OcUK polls were one of the only places that called it for the Tories in 2015. Everyone else put Ed Milliband in Nr. 10 with a slim majority.

 

[jimjamuk]

People said the same about Trump winning the US presidency.
People said the same about the UK leaving the EU.

However, I am inclined to agree with you. The numbers do look very good for the Tories.

in both those scenarios thought we were looking at polls of mid 50's vs mid 40's in a two horse race and they suprised all to win.

The GE presents lots of parties that potentially split voters and recent polls suggest the Cons have an 18pt lead over Labour who arent thought to be in the running so in terms of the Cons and the LD's the gap is 30+ points.

I'll admin polls are bobbins these days as lots of voters do not like to let on how they are going to vote (mainly as they are branded as evil / racist if its for the Cons or UKIP)

 

[scorza]

Based on the current poll it seems like there's been a large swing from UKIP to Lib Dem, which is quite bizarre . What I think has actually happened is that UKIP voters have gone to the Conservatives and some Conservative and Labour voters have gone to the Lib Dems.

 

[robfosters]

Based on the current poll it seems like there's been a large swing from UKIP to Lib Dem, which is quite bizarre . What I think has actually happened is that UKIP voters have gone to the Conservatives and some Conservative and Labour voters have gone to the Lib Dems.

Carswell for one. He will be supporting the conservatives in the election. Reckon he's trying to worm his way back into the party. If I was May, I would swallow my pride and let him rejoin and take Clacton for the tories.

 

[scorza]

Carswell for one. He will be supporting the conservatives in the election. Reckon he's trying to worm his way back into the party. If I was May, I would swallow my pride and let him rejoin and take Clacton for the tories.

Me for another - feel dirty voting for the Tories but just can't risk a Lib-Lab coalition at the moment. Plus at least Cameron and Osborne have gone - not sure I'd vote for the Tories today with either of those two idiots in the running to be PM.

Think Carswell is running scared of a personal battle with Aaron Banks tbh, that's why he isn't running imo.

 

[HazardO]

Going against the will of the people is a very silly thing for the Lib Dems, they will gain some seats and vote share but will still be a protest part like UKip.

How are they going against "the will" of the people? Have they said they plan to block Brexit? My understanding is while they don't like Brexit, they intend to do their best to remain in the single market or have as best possible access to it. That's not going against the will of the people unless you really believe that all people who voted to leave the EU also voted to leave the single market. Or you read the Daily Mail a lot..

 

[robfosters]

A lib-lab coalition would be bad news for the working man due to tax rises but amazing for the disabled and unemployed. Most of the 50,000 who have had their motability cars taken away would probably get them back (many of whom genuinely need them I might add), benefits cap would be lifted, bedroom tax would be gone and benefits would actually be raised in line with inflation.

 

[Jas1975]

I imagine that the Tory mandate will state we will leave the single market - so it cannot be used as a bargaining chip with the EU. If single market access is offered as a concession at a later stage then all well and good but it would not be prudent to state that is your intention prior to negotiations.

 

[Rilot]

Based on the current poll it seems like there's been a large swing from UKIP to Lib Dem, which is quite bizarre . What I think has actually happened is that UKIP voters have gone to the Conservatives and some Conservative and Labour voters have gone to the Lib Dems.

I think UKIP are going to be wiped out at the GE. They won't get a single MP and will poll at less than 5% I reckon.
I do think you're right about the movement of votes. UKIP people will vote Tory to get the Brexit they want. This will include many historical Labour voters who moved to UKIP due to Labour's support for immigration and the EU. Labour voters are swinging towards LibDem and Green as left-of-centre alternatives to the frankly awful Corbyn.

 

[do_ron_ron]

The last GE poll on here is here: https://forums.overclockers.co.uk/threads/general-election-voting-round-5-final-one.18668791/

This was the final poll:



Tory vote near as damnit the same percentage as today. The big difference is the non Tory vote distribution.
Interestingly, OcUK polls were one of the only places that called it for the Tories in 2015. Everyone else put Ed Milliband in Nr. 10 with a slim majority.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. OCUK is always very pro-Tory and as you said the rest was out. If you add the Tory and UKIP this gives the right wing bias of OCUK posters.

 

[robfosters]

How are they going against "the will" of the people? Have they said they plan to block Brexit? My understanding is while they don't like Brexit, they intend to do their best to remain in the single market or have as best possible access to it. That's not going against the will of the people unless you really believe that all people who voted to leave the EU also voted to leave the single market. Or you read the Daily Mail a lot..

There's no point to brexit if we remain in the single market. We might as well forget the whole thing, which is what the lib dems are secretly aiming for.

I see Gina Miller raising her ugly head again as well.

 

[do_ron_ron]

I imagine that the Tory mandate will state we will leave the single market - so it cannot be used as a bargaining chip with the EU. If single market access is offered as a concession at a later stage then all well and good but it would not be prudent to state that is your intention prior to negotiations.

If they do that quite a few Tories will vote Lib-Dem or not bother. Remember the Tory Party is split between the Hard and soft Brexiters. The majority of Tory backers will not want a hard Brexit either especially the financial side.

 

[aardvark]

Maybe your view is different to other peoples views of how things are in the country. We all live in different places, with different services and requirements. I dont think in one moment that the NHS will be sold on the scale I have heard and I expect others will have a different view. You are assuming you are right and others are wrong when the reality is normally somewhere in the middle

yeah this really.
i have a lot of friends who say the tories are evil and that labour are good people who have the best interests of everybody at heart (or the opposite) - its nonsense. All that black and white thinking does is expose the person as an idiot.
The world is complicated and there are many opinions on how to solve these very complicated issues, but they are mostly that: opinions, not facts.

 

[HazardO]

There's no point to brexit if we remain in the single market. We might as well forget the whole thing, which is what the lib dems are secretly aiming for.

I see Gina Miller raising her ugly head again as well.

I disagree, while remaining in the SM but leaving the EU is a worse position than before, it is still an option. It is still the case that while a lot of people who voted Brexit and do want to leave the EU are vocal about it, not everyone who voted to leave the EU wanted to leave the single market. I was pointing out the fallacy of this current usage of "will of the people". Even the Tory party can't internally decide what kind of Brexit they want..

 

[chroniclard]

The "will of the people" isn't defined in any meaningful way. Its pretty clear that a large proportion of people dont want a "hard brexit" the Tories are stampeding towards.

 

[Jono8]

Based on the current poll it seems like there's been a large swing from UKIP to Lib Dem, which is quite bizarre . What I think has actually happened is that UKIP voters have gone to the Conservatives and some Conservative and Labour voters have gone to the Lib Dems.

Ofcourse. Ukip are nothing/pointless now - they wont get as many votes as last time.

As you say, UKIP voters will defect to the Conservatives. However a HUGE number of Conservative voters will defect to the Lib Dems. Some Labour supporters will as well.

The difference in Lib Dem support here between 2015 and now is massive and whilst we are but a humble computer forum, I feel the sentiment will be similar across the country. ~48% of the voters voted to remain and they are still ******* off about it so this is there chance to vote against a hard brexit.

To be honest , I think the Conservatives will end up with a similar narrow majority but with the loads more seats for the Lib Dems.

 

[jimjamuk]

The "will of the people" isn't defined in any meaningful way. Its pretty clear that a large proportion of people dont want a "hard brexit" the Tories are stampeding towards.

I dont believe the Tories know what sort of Brexit they are going to get - but they want the power to be able to be flexible in negotiating some sort of position without a knife being held at their backs. What we will get is something in between hard and soft BRexit - although it seems the common market/free movement are the only differences ive seem people argue about

 

[HazardO]

The "will of the people" isn't defined in any meaningful way. Its pretty clear that a large proportion of people dont want a "hard brexit" the Tories are stampeding towards.

I'm not sure it's a large majority, we simply do not know and the referendum did not tell us. As much as I dislike Brexit, I accept that there is no turning back now A50 has been signed as even if as a country we did have a change of heart, we're now in the position that we would have to negotiate our way back in (i.e. lose veto, lose rebate at very minimum). The key IMO is to get a Brexit which is the least damaging to our future prospects, and that is not a debate we're being allowed to have.

I dont believe the Tories know what sort of Brexit they are going to get - but they want the power to be able to be flexible in negotiating some sort of position without a knife being held at their backs. What we will get is something in between hard and soft BRexit - although it seems the common market/free movement are the only differences ive seem people argue about

The Tories are split all the way from single market access to WTO or bust as far as I can see. May clearly does want to be able to out vote some of her party and water down some of the extreme views, but that couild be done with cross party consensus. This election is just as much about cementing a 1 party state position. What really worries me is that she gets a reasonable Brexit but compromises with party hardliners to get it resulting in further decimation of our public services, human and workers rights..

 

[Jono8]

I'm not sure it's a large majority, we simply do not know and the referendum did not tell us. As much as I dislike Brexit, I accept that there is no turning back now A50 has been signed as even if as a country we did have a change of heart, we're now in the position that we would have to negotiate our way back in (i.e. lose veto, lose rebate at very minimum).

How much of this is true? We have given our notice to leave but have not left yet. Is there anything written in European law that says once we submit A50 that is it? (genuine question, as I don't know either)

 

[StriderX]

A50 was never done before, so it doesn't matter what anyone thinks, we can stop whenever we wish and that'd set the precedent. If at that point the EU says to go **** ourselves, then we know what the EU is to us.

The EU would not desire losing such a useful amount of funding, so the council would likely be unanimous.