Brexit, Trump, and General Election 2015 were all within a few percentage points of the true value. For this to be anything other than a Tory landslide with polls as they are would be totally unprecedented.
Poll: Poll: Prime Minister Theresa May calls General Election on June 8th
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Brexit, Trump, and General Election 2015 were all within a few percentage points of the true value. For this to be anything other than a Tory landslide with polls as they are would be totally unprecedented.
Do stats etc for work. I know how very hard it is to perform demographic profiling correctly. It's never going to be right. And easy to be wrong especially with close calls.
You can break down demographics to your hearts content. Race, socio-economic, gender, age,.. Very soon you get massive samples and it becomes expensive.
It gets even harder when you consider certain people never do polls. Telephone or post or Internet?
Then you scale up, have to consider people change their mind over news stories last minute and due to current predictions, etc.
You have to even be careful postcode sorting as even number house numbers may be on an expensive side of the street!
So many factors, so easy to bias in the wrong way!
Messy game
You can break down demographics to your hearts content. Race, socio-economic, gender, age,.. Very soon you get massive samples and it becomes expensive.
It gets even harder when you consider certain people never do polls. Telephone or post or Internet?
Then you scale up, have to consider people change their mind over news stories last minute and due to current predictions, etc.
You have to even be careful postcode sorting as even number house numbers may be on an expensive side of the street!
So many factors, so easy to bias in the wrong way!
Messy game
Are you completely ignorant of statistics or delusional? Has our education system really failed this badly?
Open polls are useless for determining anything because they are so easily manipulated. We could get this forum to swing such a poll if we all agreed to vote the same way, it means nothing.
As for polling being wrong, historically polling in Britain has underestimated the tory vote when it gets it wrong (see 1992 and 2015 for election poll failures). Unless you think there is a shy Corbyn voter effect, you better hope the polls aren't wrong because the likelihood if they are is an even bigger defeat.
I did wonder. Honest mistake, then.
You obviously didn't pay attention to the polls then.
For Brexit they showed it to be very close by the end (within a few percent with remain edging it) - the results was very close, just in a few percent the other way.
For Trump, again they showed it to be quite close by the end (with Hilary edging it) and were actually mostly correct in that Hilary won the popular vote.
Polls are never going to be 100% accurate, but even for Brexit and Trump, they were close/in the ballpark.
I think right now people would vote for Satan if he painted his horns blue.
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It's the issue that won't go away. I think it was naive of LibDems to think it would ever be different, mind you it was a pretty shallow pool they were left to pick from.
I am frankly stunned that this guy is the Lib Dem leader.
Somewhat gobsmacked. So, the Libdems are now fronted by a person with questionable views on homosexuality? I'll assume founded by his own brand of Christianity? Considering the opportunity this election presents that party; what a waste.
It will be the labour leadership vote all over again!Time to push Corby to 90%
i thought he'd finally come out (herp derp) and said it wasn't a few days ago, guess that was just for the cameras there and since then has been battered about the head with a bible again.
i see corbyns going for it today with his talk of new bank holidays, nice if you have a job where you get them off or paid extra unlike a lot of the country.
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It will be the labour leadership vote all over again!
Come on we're in it together, let's get him up to 90%, then quote the poll EVERYWHERE!
Big community, big skewed result, lets go.
Do we know whether May thinks gay sex is a sin? I seem to recall Gove describing her as being our first Catholic PM.
They both have a reasonable voting record on LGBT stuff in recent years which is surely more relevant?
You'd think he'd just say "that's not important as i keep my private religion separate from my duties to the state".
well something more focus grouped but you know.
May's voting on it is mixed. I wonder what it is like compared with Tim's?
Edit - quite similar though May has more history logged as she has been a PM for longer -
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10426/theresa_may/maidenhead/divisions?policy=826
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11923/tim_farron/westmorland_and_lonsdale/divisions?policy=826
Also, what did Tim actually say in response to the question?
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