Pro Cycling Discussion Thread 2015

Cavendish lost his sprinting dominance a couple of tours ago, Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel have him easily marked. Kittel isn't in the the race this year due to illness so Cav has an improved chance of winning a stage.
 
touch said:
Nobody can disagree with your post. It's a fact. He HAS gone from further than that before and won.
I'd agree with xdcx though, it's a completely pointless fact. The conditions were different, the race was different, the leadout was different. So just because he has sprinted from further before doesnt mean he didnt go too early this time.
The fact that he died before the line somewhat proves that he did indeed go too early.
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Look, I understand that and I am genuinely not being argumentative (for a change), I just don't see it the same way.

Look at it this way, Sagan got a puncture, was miles behind, got back on like a Warrior and STILL beat Cav to the line. Now if he can do that (and he must have been utterly drained trying to catch up on his own), you can't tell me Cav couldn't have done better? Or perhaps that's the issue. He can't. I am still mentally comparing 'Old Cav' to 'New Cav' and they aren't the same.

I have been mulling it over and what I find worrying is that even when Cav committed to the sprint he wasn't pulling anything out of Greipel on his wheel. The other Pro sprinters always says they get no benefit of being on his wheel because he is so short and so close to the bars, yet Greipel maintained contact then came past him.

Argh! Two days in and my emotions are all over the place already - not good.
 
George Hincapie said:
Look, I understand that and I am genuinely not being argumentative (for a change), I just don't see it the same way.

Look at it this way, Sagan got a puncture, was miles behind, got back on like a Warrior and STILL beat Cav to the line. Now if he can do that (and he must have been utterly drained trying to catch up on his own), you can't tell me Cav couldn't have done better? Or perhaps that's the issue. He can't. I am still mentally comparing 'Old Cav' to 'New Cav' and they aren't the same.

I have been mulling it over and what I find worrying is that even when Cav committed to the sprint he wasn't pulling anything out of Greipel on his wheel. The other Pro sprinters always says they get no benefit of being on his wheel because he is so short and so close to the bars, yet Greipel maintained contact then came past him.

Argh! Two days in and my emotions are all over the place already - not good.
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This is why a few pages back I was saying peoples thoughts on Cav coming in and winning stages and doing great are based on perception from previous years, not basedon proven form this year coming to the tour.

Exactly like you say, early or not, when he went he did not put any damage to Griepel or Sagan and they came round, so based on this we would think his form coming into the tour is not as great as previous for himself or on par with what these boys are coming into the tour with. They had proven themselves this year, come in on form and Cav was a big unknown, exactly what I was getting at a few pages back when questioned why I thought he would not have a good tour.

I can see you are a big fan of Cav, nobody trying to **** on him, just giving our takes on yesterday. Hopefully he does get some good results, he is British and fun to watch and like again what I said few pages back, I want to be wrong about him and want him to do well!

EDIT - also getting questioned on Kristoff above. Yep, Kristoff. People all putting down pure climbers to win, yes it's step but the climbers are 50/50 to get there first. This is a odd and hard stage so lets see how it pans out till nearer the bottom of the Mur before even remotely deciding which prediction will be likely.
 
George Hincapie said:
Look, I understand that and I am genuinely not being argumentative (for a change), I just don't see it the same way.
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I dont really understand what you're saying. If you dont think he went too early and timed his sprint well, then you must think that he just isnt as fast as the others?

As I've been saying throughout this thread, I dont think Cav is the fastest sprinter in the race this year. But I do think he mistimed his sprint and can do better.
 
There is no doubt his sprint ability has diminished. It also appears his motivation and passion has gone too. Maybe family time and money have sapped that training edge.

He can win stages outside of the biggest Tours, only the next 3 weeks will show if he can still win on the big stage.
 
touch said:
I dont really understand what you're saying. If you dont think he went too early and timed his sprint well, then you must think that he just isnt as fast as the others?

As I've been saying throughout this thread, I dont think Cav is the fastest sprinter in the race this year. But I do think he mistimed his sprint and can do better.
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Sorry. I am saying that even though he had to go earlier then he might have liked, I feel he should have done better compared to the respective efforts of the others.

Am I holding him to an unrealistic standard? Probably.
 
xdcx said:
EDIT - also getting questioned on Kristoff above. Yep, Kristoff. People all putting down pure climbers to win, yes it's step but the climbers are 50/50 to get there first. This is a odd and hard stage so lets see how it pans out till nearer the bottom of the Mur before even remotely deciding which prediction will be likely.
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I think it's too short for a pure climber to win but too long for a pure sprinter to win. There's no recovery time over the top, so you need to be in the top10 over the climb to have any chance of winning.
It needs somebody who can power up a short climb, like Valverde, Sagan, Gerrans, Rodriguez.
There's also a narrow, technical run in to the bottom of the climb, so also somebody who can get in the right place at the right time. Maybe Gerraint Thomas as an outside bet? He's great at moving about in the bunch and getting in the right place.

Not sure what's going on with paddypower's odds? I got Sagan at 50:1 last night and now he's at 10:1! Did something change overnight or just lots of others taking up the same bet?
Also picked up Cancellara at 100:1.
 
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I don't think yesterdays stage is any indication of Cav's form. Had Renshaw not have pulled off so soon, or had he managed to stay behind lotto, Cav would have won imo. As it happened it was just a tactical foul up, nothing to do with actual sprint strength, with that wind it was obvious anyone going that early would never have held it to the line. I'm sure he'll take more than a few stages this tour.

I got Sagan at 25:1 so suspect its just people taking it up.
 
I agree. There's no point in comparing Cav vs Sagan in a long-distance sprint when it shouldnt happen again.
I'm not convinced it would be a guaranteed win if he did time it right though, Greipel would still have put up a tough fight.
 
Wow, whole lot of overreaction here. Yeah, maybe a few mistakes were made but that's bike racing. It's not the end of the world. Realistically, Cav's decision to pull off makes a lot more sense when you consider that's it's practically the first day of a three week long tour and actually sprinting to your limits takes a lot more out of you than most people realise.
 
touch said:
I think it's too short for a pure climber to win but too long for a pure sprinter to win. There's no recovery time over the top, so you need to be in the top10 over the climb to have any chance of winning.
It needs somebody who can power up a short climb, like Valverde, Sagan, Gerrans, Rodriguez.
There's also a narrow, technical run in to the bottom of the climb, so also somebody who can get in the right place at the right time. Maybe Gerraint Thomas as an outside bet? He's great at moving about in the bunch and getting in the right place.

Not sure what's going on with paddypower's odds? I got Sagan at 50:1 last night and now he's at 10:1! Did something change overnight or just lots of others taking up the same bet?
Also picked up Cancellara at 100:1.
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Kristoff ain't a climber or a pure sprinter, he's just 100% bad ass and this is why I mention him. Like you say it is too short and flat leadup for pure climbers to be in the mix to attack it I think, although can't rule that out, teams may get their climbers there but I don't think that will happen. IT's the beauty of this stage though! :cool:

I picked Sagan for a win today in earlier post, Paddy Power obviously seen this and have adjusted their odds, it's the only explanation! :p
 
Really anjoying watching this today, watched some of it yesterday but ive watched it from about the 110km mark today.

Anyone see the mechanic leaning out the window at 31mph to clear that fellas cassette? Fantastic stuff :D
 
xdcx said:
Kristoff ain't a climber or a pure sprinter, he's just 100% bad ass and this is why I mention him. Like you say it is too short and flat leadup for pure climbers to be in the mix to attack it I think, although can't rule that out, teams may get their climbers there but I don't think that will happen. IT's the beauty of this stage though! :cool:

I picked Sagan for a win today in earlier post, Paddy Power obviously seen this and have adjusted their odds, it's the only explanation! :p
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I think of Kristoff as a Van Avermaet style sprinter: he can hang on over a couple of hills and still be in there for the sprint at the end, but I cant see him winning when the finish is at the top of the climb.

Maybe there's hundreds of lurkers watching this thread for your tips. Has anyone noticed if the odds on Kristoff have moved significantly today? :p
 
Jeeze @ that crash. Hopefully no ones seriously hurt, but I doubt it.

Yellow jersey down :(. Really hope Canc isn't concussed. Wow, the slow mo replay of it makes it look even worse. Cancellara managed to avoid the pileup but he went head over heels and looked like his bike hit him.

Good decision to neutralise.
 
Peloton being halted! Bad crash.

FDJ guy is wrecked :( Yellow jersey down but think he will get back on.

Peloton also already back on the go...... Weird....
 
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