The outfit disguise thing doesn't seem to work. Just tried an outfit I haven't worn before, with a full hood, guns I've never used before, and a horse I caught myself, right before testing.
Walked in to Strawberry, shot a bunch of people, fled back to New Hanover, changed everything back to my normal garb, weapons, and horse. Rode back to Strawberry. I was recognised instantly.
May try again with Cover Scent Lotion. Because the only logical explanations left are that the NPCs have superhuman smell, or the game is bugged.
TBH the more I play this game, the more I feel like it's a little undeserving of the praise it's garnered. The level of detail in some areas is incredibly impressive. But the controls are a bit naff, the gunplay isn't great, disguises don't work, horses are suicidal, and NPCs are overly aggressive. I wish I'd bought it on disk now, as I can't see myself spending much time with it once the story is done. Other than fighting and stealing, there isn't a lot to do if you don't enjoy hunting.