Taiwan and China thread.

[dowie]

It would be nice but the current problem is simply China, they want Taiwan to be part of China and if Taiwan doesn't wish to be part of China then there likely isn't a peaceful solution to that situation, they're inherently conflicting positions which are just being kicked down the road by the current compromise situation where everyone pretends there is only one China. That compromise situation quite likely has a time limit on it as China is getting frustrated with it and aims to gain control of Taiwan in the near future.

I really don't see what they have to negotiate or talk about unless China were to do a complete 180 on their goal, which doesn't seem very likely. There were negotiations re: HK before that was handed over, technically HK island wasn't leased and simply belonged to the UK, China decided they wanted it all back not just the new territories which had been leased and realistically, short of a nuclear standoff or war, there wasn't anything the UK could do about it, China could have simply cut off the water supply for a start.

The only stuff to negotiate wasn't whether China could have it back but how it was to be transferred + the one country two systems transition period, the PLA still rolled in and took control on day 1 of the handover albeit it was done peacefully with a military ceremony and Chris Patten + his wife and three attractive daughters leaving and getting onboard the Royal Yacht.

 

[Rroff]

I really don't see what they have to negotiate or talk about unless China were to do a complete 180 on their goal, which doesn't seem very likely.

Some people seem to really struggle with this notion - I can't really understand why. Maybe they think if they refuse to accept something as reality for long enough it will cease to be.

 

[Doggie2k]

Well maybe if the chinese government wasn't such a authoritarian entity and Whinnie the Pooh being nothing short of a dictator the people of Taiwan would sort of welcome it. But no

 

[Grim5]

Kind of but this time in a way that actually works.

The only way to prevent someone invading your country is by having defensive nuclear missiles

 

[1664kronenbourg]

What have North Korea, Taiwan and Urkraine got in common?
If they had vast oil reserves the USA would have been in there straight away.

 

[EVH5150]

What have North Korea, Taiwan and Urkraine got in common?
If they had vast oil reserves the USA would have been in there straight away.

Not true, Ukraine is very mineral rich, oil, natural gas, titanium, magnesium and iron ore to name a few.

 

[Grim5]

What have North Korea, Taiwan and Urkraine got in common?
If they had vast oil reserves the USA would have been in there straight away.

There is several trillion worth of resources in Ukraine's ground

 

[Grim5]

If China wants Taiwan, it better move within the next decade.

The country is already reached it's peak and gone over the cliff, leaked internal government stats show the population is declining and the birth rate has tanked and the rest of the world didn't expect this would happen until closer to 2040 and this changes the global view of China.
Now that they've reached this stage, within 20 years over 50% of the population will be aged over 65 and the population will fall by 50 to 60% in 50 years.

 

[Custor]

If China wants Taiwan, it better move within the next decade.

The country is already reached it's peak and gone over the cliff, leaked internal government stats show the population is declining and the birth rate has tanked and the rest of the world didn't expect this would happen until closer to 2040 and this changes the global view of China.
Now that they've reached this stage, within 20 years over 50% of the population will be aged over 65 and the population will fall by 50 to 60% in 50 years.

Chinas birth rate is higher than Taiwans.
Why does this tank China but Taiwan isn’t tanked?

 

[Gregvivi0401]

What have North Korea, Taiwan and Urkraine got in common?
If they had vast oil reserves the USA would have been in there straight away.

Taiwan it's USA Pacific ocean barrier that's why they will protect this line.

 

[Grim5]

Chinas birth rate is higher than Taiwans.
Why does this tank China but Taiwan isn’t tanked?

I didn't say anything about Taiwans population. I said Chinas is falling and it's happening before they've been able to transition into a consumer driven economy, perhaps their industrialisation happened too quick and it coincided with the one child policy.

 

[Grim5]

Taiwan it's USA Pacific ocean barrier that's why they will protect this line.

True but it's not currently needed as such, Chinas navy has a range problem, even their new air craft carrier which they've designed to try and copy the Ford, only has a 500 mile range cause it runs on diesel. Without friendly ports to refuel they can't really go anywhere meanwhile the US operates what's called a blue water navy, they can go anywhere anytime.

So as far as trying to keep the Chinese navy out of the pacific is concerned, it's not a problem at present and not needed. US interest in the area gains much more value from its ability to cut off trade and enforce sanctions, having access to the first layer island chains means it and nato am an enforce a naval blockade and that's far more valuable than worrying about Chinese ships getting into a the pacificn

 

[Gregvivi0401]

True but it's not currently needed as such, Chinas navy has a range problem, even their new air craft carrier which they've designed to try and copy the Ford, only has a 500 mile range cause it runs on diesel. Without friendly ports to refuel they can't really go anywhere meanwhile the US operates what's called a blue water navy, they can go anywhere anytime

Yes but it's USA they have fingers in many pies.

 

[Firestar_3x]

True but it's not currently needed as such, Chinas navy has a range problem, even their new air craft carrier which they've designed to try and copy the Ford, only has a 500 mile range cause it runs on diesel. Without friendly ports to refuel they can't really go anywhere meanwhile the US operates what's called a blue water navy, they can go anywhere anytime.

Got anything to back that claim up, sounds like BS to me.

 

[Custor]

I didn't say anything about Taiwans population. I said Chinas is falling and it's happening before they've been able to transition into a consumer driven economy, perhaps their industrialisation happened too quick and it coincided with the one child policy.

Ok. Maybe I don’t see China as being uniquely different to any other country in the journey from in developed to developed. A falling birth rate hasn’t crippled Japan or S Korea.
I do see the China will fail posts. Mainly from Americans who see being #1 as the main factor in the logic of why China is bad/must fail.
If India continues its economics and threatens super power status… we’ll ban Indian electronics firms…. coz security. But only once they threaten US commercial hegemony.
P.s. yes I did have to check what Hegemony meant.

 

[Cyber-Mav]

Looks like china is making a move

 

[TNA]

Looks like china is making a move

?

 

[Roar87]

True but it's not currently needed as such, Chinas navy has a range problem, even their new air craft carrier which they've designed to try and copy the Ford, only has a 500 mile range cause it runs on diesel. Without friendly ports to refuel they can't really go anywhere meanwhile the US operates what's called a blue water navy, they can go anywhere anytime.

So as far as trying to keep the Chinese navy out of the pacific is concerned, it's not a problem at present and not needed. US interest in the area gains much more value from its ability to cut off trade and enforce sanctions, having access to the first layer island chains means it and nato am an enforce a naval blockade and that's far more valuable than worrying about Chinese ships getting into a the pacificn

You're right about the Fujian not having friendly ports near the US but the range of the Fujian will be closer to 10,000 miles than 500 lol

 

[potatolord]

I can't remember the date, 2049 I think but China set a deadline for the reunification of Taiwan "one way or another".

EDIT: Something I've mentioned before but some leaks (not sure if intentional) from Russian military leadership seem to indicate they are under the impression, from talking to their counterparts in China, that China would commence an invasion of Taiwan by the end of this year - but I don't really see it - they've not built up the infrastructure or resources to do it decisively as things stand while not impossible it would be hugely costly for China and not certain to succeed.

Depends how you define "begin", i suppose.

Regular exercises and live fire drills could effectively close much of the sea around Taiwan and make life very difficult, including imports and trade.

China can play a long game there.

 

[a1ex2001]

Depends how you define "begin", i suppose.

Regular exercises and live fire drills could effectively close much of the sea around Taiwan and make life very difficult, including imports and trade.

China can play a long game there.

Or they could just walk in tomorrow, no country is going to risk a nuclear confrontation over Taiwan and it’s tiny island status and position make a Ukrainian style proxy war impossible. One day the Chinese government will decide to day is the day and simply annex Taiwan over night. This will result in much sabre rattling, talk in the UN and probably some sanctions but America will not go to war with China.