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*** The AMD RDNA 4 Rumour Mill ***

mahius said:
Well after Nvidia's AMD-level failure on the 5080... AMD may end up accidentally having something that does compete with a 5080 (maybe not in raytracing though) :cry:
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I'm extremely surprised to see the 7900XTX keeping pace with the 5080 (in non-RT games). I guess that sums up how underwhelming it is.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 24GB 5080 Super within 6 months... IF the 9070 series is able to nip at the vanilla 5080's heels.

mahius said:
After seeing this, now I have a different 'new' conspiracy theory on the AMD delays... hear me out here folks:
What if AMD sees the failure of the sub-£1k 5000 series as a different sort of opportunity... i.e. as an opportunity to mark up their prices on the new cards.
With the 5080 being so bad, now a $700+ 9070XT doesn't look so silly or even unlikely...
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Let me build on this and combine it with my theory from earlier:
  • They add in a heavily clocked new XTX SKU with increased power limits, which can nip at the heels of the 5080 (should be as simple as a new BIOS, since the AIB cards already seem "overbuilt" with 3 x 8-pin connectors etc. This would allow them to raise the price to ~$750 (i.e., same price as 5070 Ti, with decently better performance) - could even be a 24GB model down the line if GDDR6 3GB modules are available?
  • The existing XT remains as-is, or perhaps takes a slight downclock so it's level with the 5070 Ti but comes in at ~$650 (i.e., same performance as the Ti, but >$100 cheaper)
  • The vanilla 9070 is similarly tweaked to spank the vanilla 5070 and is priced similarly at ~$550
  • The 9060 XT could then be ~$450 and go head to head on performance with the 5070 vanilla
Delaying the release theoretically gives them to opportunity to really optimize the stack and make trade-offs that enable them to both maintain decent-ish margins, but also gain a bit of share.

This would, of course, force NV's hand into releasing Super models much more quickly...

It's all optimistic crazy talk from someone who is a little partial to the underdog ;) but this is the sort of thinking the AMD Pricing / Strategy team should be doing!
 
harmattan said:
Ok, so what's the current consenus? I'm seeing two competing threads:

1) AMD has, if not exactly 5080 performance, something quite close cooking with 9070xt for a lower price.

2) AMD has done messed things up again with 9070xt only around 4070 ti performance and they will price it at £700
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The latter seems unlikely. The branding position of the 9070 XT is between the 7900 XT and 7900 XTX, so performance around the 4070 Ti would be insanely bad.
 
Sumanji said:
I'm extremely surprised to see the 7900XTX keeping pace with the 5080 (in non-RT games). I guess that sums up how underwhelming it is.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 24GB 5080 Super within 6 months... IF the 9070 series is able to nip at the vanilla 5080's heels.



Let me build on this and combine it with my theory from earlier:
  • They add in a heavily clocked new XTX SKU with increased power limits, which can nip at the heels of the 5080 (should be as simple as a new BIOS, since the AIB cards already seem "overbuilt" with 3 x 8-pin connectors etc. This would allow them to raise the price to ~$750 (i.e., same price as 5070 Ti, with decently better performance) - could even be a 24GB model down the line if GDDR6 3GB modules are available?
  • The existing XT remains as-is, or perhaps takes a slight downclock so it's level with the 5070 Ti but comes in at ~$650 (i.e., same performance as the Ti, but >$100 cheaper)
  • The vanilla 9070 is similarly tweaked to spank the vanilla 5070 and is priced similarly at ~$550
  • The 9060 XT could then be ~$450 and go head to head on performance with the 5070 vanilla
Delaying the release theoretically gives them to opportunity to really optimize the stack and make trade-offs that enable them to both maintain decent-ish margins, but also gain a bit of share.

This would, of course, force NV's hand into releasing Super models much more quickly...

It's all optimistic crazy talk from someone who is a little partial to the underdog ;) but this is the sort of thinking the AMD Pricing / Strategy team should be doing!
Click to expand...
I'd be really surprised to see a Super refresh. If they couldn't achieve much of an uplift with the initial cycle then I can't see what they'll do with a mid-cycle round apart from drop prices and add a bit more VRAM.
 
Bidley said:
I'd be really surprised to see a Super refresh. If they couldn't achieve much of an uplift with the initial cycle then I can't see what they'll do with a mid-cycle round apart from drop prices and add a bit more VRAM.
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5080 Ti / Super would be easy - just take the full fat GB202 chip from the 5090 and disable some SMs :)

5070, similar approach, using the GB203 chip (which the Ti already uses).
 
Sumanji said:
5080 Ti / Super would be easy - just take the full fat GB202 chip from the 5090 and disable some SMs :)

5070, similar approach, using the GB203 chip (which the Ti already uses).
Click to expand...
True, I suppose it depends how well this lot sells. If they couldn't be arsed with anything other than the 5090 (which was questionable in the first place) initially then it would take actual pressure for them to do anything in the future. But we're probably straying a bit OT here!
 
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harmattan said:
Ok, so what's the current consenus? I'm seeing two competing threads:

1) AMD has, if not exactly 5080 performance, something quite close cooking with 9070xt for a lower price.

2) AMD has done messed things up again with 9070xt only around 4070 ti performance and they will price it at £700
Click to expand...

I'll throw in a third option that's not entirely a joke:

3) AMD had planned to lose more market share to nvidia in the usual way, as they have been doing for a while. AMD's intention was to have cards that slightly failed to compete with the 5070 variants in performance and to market them badly enough so that they'd fail very badly to compete in sales. Then they realised that nvidia's 5070 variants are a big dollop of "meh" for consumer use, not significantly different to the 4070 variants. Realising hours before CES that they had accidentally made themselves genuinely competitive, AMD removed themselves from the market entirely to give nvidia free rein during the crucial "new cards!" period.
 
Maybe amd were reacting to nvidias marketing, they knew it was bull, we knew it was bull but the average person is dumb as a bag of rocks, so they didn't want to launch a card that competed with the 4070ti for similar money to one that was "as fast as a 4090" so they waiting for reviews to show everyone that that was a lie, while also getting their own frame boosting tech up and running?

But who knows, maybe they found a last minute security bug in something that would have absolutely meant they couldn't sell without a fix in place.
I do think speculation isn't going to be particularly satisfying as we likely will never know the actual reasons.
 
G J said:
They released a 7800XT that was 5% faster than a 6800 XT...so why is it that nvidia cards get compared with the same model number when its AMD its the previous model minus one tier.
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Sumanji said:
It's a very fair point...
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Because comparisons are made at MSRP price tiers, not by names or EOL prices and this has always been the case.

The 7800XT was indeed only 5% faster, but the 6800 XT had a $150 (30%) higher MSRP. So the 7800 XT offered a roughly 35% price to performance increase over a 6800 XT. So yours is not a good comparison and actually shows that despite the rename, the 7800 XT was giving just about the usual generational price/perf uplift.

You want to prove AMD can be as bad as Nvidia, use the 7900 XT at €900 debacle. 35% faster than a 6800 XT and a roughly 40% price increase.

So if AMD do a repeat of the 7800 XT release for their RDNA4 stuff… great. If instead they try repeat the 7900 XT release, then that would be bad.
 
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From moore law is dead take it with grain of salt but the Nvidia one looks about right

V8BGXON.jpeg
 
uscool said:
From moore law is dead take it with grain of salt but the Nvidia one looks about right

V8BGXON.jpeg
Click to expand...

That's about what I was expecting TBH. If they can get it to market for less than the 5070, then the 9070 looks like it will be a great card. Yes, it's only a ~20% improvement over the 7900 GRE, but the much greater improvements in RT and FSR provide a fair bit of added value.
 
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Amd cards are selling well in the overclockers todays deals

8x 7900xtx
2x7900xt
4x7800xt

so tempted with a 7800 but know I will regret it in two months time
 
Sumanji said:
This would, of course, force NV's hand into releasing Super models much more quickly...
Click to expand...
A really important point which is not getting that much airtime here. AMD need to be as competitive as possible if they really want market share, because we all know Nvidia can (usually) just release better cards when needed
 
Apart from the unknown about the pricing, my other concern is the 16GB on the 9070XT. Especially, since the 7900XT/X had more 2 and the 6800XT equal 4 years ago respectively. It could limit the useful life of the card, especially when a new console generation comes along.

Strikes me as a bit "Nvidia-ist" and built in obsolescence. So still tempted by a fire sale 7900XTX if one comes up.
 
Mercurial said:
Apart from the unknown about the pricing, my other concern is the 16GB on the 9070XT. Especially, since the 7900XT/X had more 2 and the 6800XT equal 4 years ago respectively. It could limit the useful life of the card, especially when a new console generation comes along.

Strikes me as a bit "Nvidia-ist" and built in obsolescence. So still tempted by a fire sale 7900XTX if one comes up.
Click to expand...

I'm at 1440p so I think I'll be okay also has the raw GPU power to give nice headroom at that resolution
 
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