Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (June Poll)

[do_ron_ron]

How does the EU deal with korea that grants them 98% tarrif free trade disadvantage the EU countries?


Why would such a deal woth the uk disadvantage the eu countries?

Korea is outside Europe physically, Britain is not. I also do not think any deal was made to the disadvantage of the EU. Large trading blocks like the US and the EU tend to get advantageous terms for themselves as they have the power.

 

[scorza]

We've been through this, yes it does, with the obvious caveats where certain services aren't universally interchangeable

Hence there isn't a single market for them, which means what I said was accurate.

 

[Freakbro]

Hence there isn't a single market for them, which means what I said was accurate.

There is a single market for services, it's just some by their very nature don't fit easily into the system. That does not mean there is not a single market for all the ones that do fit.

So no, what you said was not accurate at all.

 

[Six6siX]

If the UK has the 5th strongest economy and has achieved that as a result of being in the EU, how will leaving enable us to maintain or improve that? We don't suddenly lose that 5th place overnight, obviously, but we do lose the majority export partner and will have to renegotiate with them. This surely puts the UK in a weaker economic position in losing that partner - even temporarily and with less favourable terms being likely in the long term, makes us quite a bit less attractive and reduces our ability to set up favourable deals with the rest of the world too.

I'm struggling to see the logic in the argument that bases its position on the fact that the UK is a strong economy. Yes, it is but because of its current position - you can't use the same benchmark data and change the rest of the rules around it!

 

[Skunkworks]

5th strongest economy despite being in the EU.

 

[MichaelAwkward]

If the UK has the 5th strongest economy and has achieved that as a result of being in the EU, how will leaving enable us to maintain or improve that?

We haven't achieved that as a result of being the in the EU. In 1965 we were the 4th largest economy, we fell to 7th in the 1980s (yes, when we were in the EEA), then rose back to 5th in the late 90s/early 2000s and we've been there since.

 

[Trifid]

Korea is outside Europe physically, Britain is not.

So we can't have a trade deal because we are on the same continent? Sounds like we have some nice neighbours doesn't it.

 

[scorza]

There is a single market for services, it's just some by their very nature don't fit easily into the system. That does not mean there is not a single market for all the ones that do fit.

So no, what you said was not accurate at all.

Nope - there are lots of different markets within the EU for services, not an overall single one.

 

[PlacidCasual]

If the UK has the 5th strongest economy and has achieved that as a result of being in the EU, how will leaving enable us to maintain or improve that? We don't suddenly lose that 5th place overnight, obviously, but we do lose the majority export partner and will have to renegotiate with them. This surely puts the UK in a weaker economic position in losing that partner - even temporarily and with less favourable terms being likely in the long term, makes us quite a bit less attractive and reduces our ability to set up favourable deals with the rest of the world too.

I'm struggling to see the logic in the argument that bases its position on the fact that the UK is a strong economy. Yes, it is but because of its current position - you can't use the same benchmark data and change the rest of the rules around it!

I would be surprised if after voting to leave there was any other outcome than EEA membership for the UK. Maybe in the longer run we would negotiate a different deal but Single Market access and the 4 freedoms would be the almost certain starting position. Now people go EEA membership is all the burdens and none of the influence. But it places an absolute cap on EU intergration. It removals the absolute need to apply EU legislation/regulation on non-EU business. It also means where we have previously been represented by the EU at World Forums that set the standards that eventually become regulation we would represent ourselves. We could negotiate trade deals that the EU has failed at because we have only one country's worth of vested interests to manage not 28.

This will not placate many Leave voters who wish migration to be curbed but actually is a reasonable interim position it allows a new Government to be elected on a fresh mandate for a post EU World and potentially a manadte to vote for neogitiating a relations ship outsidet the single (regulatory) market.

 

[Six6siX]

5th strongest economy despite being in the EU.

Either way you look at it, the situation I described is accurate, is it not? The basis of the strong economy is a result of the current situation and everything that contributes to it - how we got here is irrelevant. We are strong now.

Trying to extrapolate that we would still be strong whilst removing arguably the biggest factor in terms of economic benefit in exchange for an unknown but likely worse situation in trade is not logical to me.

 

[Six6siX]

This will not placate many Leave voters who wish migration to be curbed but actually is a reasonable interim position it allows a new Government to be elected on a fresh mandate for a post EU World and potentially a manadte to vote for neogitiating a relations ship outsidet the single (regulatory) market.

This is the key point here - those arguing economic benefit are almost exclusively arguing for control of immigration. Close the borders to the detriment to the economy or boost the economy with detriment to the borders.

I think the two are mutually un achievable post leave but at least in our current position we have a level of control over EU movement and it is down to the UK government to use the power it currently has to do more to help with migration numbers.

Leaving almost seems like a pointless exercise in this context as it gives us a hell of a lot of hassle and cost and risk for what is to me, looking likely to be a worse situation.

 

[thep02]

Is this sense of negativity and belittling of one's own country something imbibed in student union bars these days?

Don't be so antagonistic you're not an asset to out if you strengthen the resolve of folk who are worried about leaving something they've grown up with.

student union bars are full of people who will soon be earning big and making key decisions having earned the right to do so fron hard work.

 

[estebanrey]

If the UK has the 5th strongest economy and has achieved that as a result of being in the EU

UK's position as X largest economy...

1960 = 4th
1970 = 6th

joins EEC in 1972......

1980 = 6th
1990 = 7th
2000 = 4th
2010 = 6th

I'm not seeing the correlation that you're seeing. You're acting as if we were outside the top ten before we joined and over the last 30 years shot up to 5th. Since 1960 we have been at our highest (4th) outside the EU and our lowest (7th) inside it.

 

[bam0]

UK's position as X largest economy...

1960 = 4th
1970 = 6th

joins EEC in 1972......

1980 = 6th
1990 = 7th
2000 = 4th
2010 = 6th

I'm not seeing the correlation that you're seeing. You're acting as if we were outside the top ten before we joined and over the last 30 years shot up to 5th. Since 1960 we have been at our highest (4th) outside the EU and our lowest (7th) inside it.

According to your own numbers we were also at our highest (4th) while in the EU in 2000.

 

[Skunkworks]

And dropping ever since. Best to get out before it goes further.

 

[Six6siX]

UK's position as X largest economy...

1960 = 4th
1970 = 6th

joins EEC in 1972......

1980 = 6th
1990 = 7th
2000 = 4th
2010 = 6th

I'm not seeing the correlation that you're seeing. You're acting as if we were outside the top ten before we joined and over the last 30 years shot up to 5th. Since 1960 we have been at our highest (4th) outside the EU and our lowest (7th) inside it.

No, I'm looking at the relevant data - what happened 50+ years ago is not particularly relevant - just as someone tried to draw a comparison to the industrial revolution and imperialism earlier in this thread. The world has changed now - the EU is very much integral to the UK's economy and therefore it's strength globally. To remove or change that in any way and claim that we would still be just as strong is simply not logical to me.

According to GDP (source) looking at the relevant data (i.e. present day and more recent trends post recession - not post war, previous generation data that doesn't reflect the current global climate)

2000 = 4th
2005 = 4th
2011 = 7th
2012 = 6th
2013 = 6th
2014 = 5th
2015 = 5th

The UK was even stronger than it is now pre recession - whilst still being in the EU! The trend is continuing and projections indicate more steady growth (source.

 

[estebanrey]

According to GDP (source) looking at the relevant data (i.e. present day and more recent trends post recession - not post war, previous generation data that doesn't reflect the current global climate)

2000 = 4th
2005 = 4th
2011 = 7th
2012 = 6th
2013 = 6th
2014 = 5th
2015 = 5th

The UK was even stronger than it is now pre recession - whilst still being in the EU! The trend is continuing and projections indicate more steady growth (source.

Yes and we've been floating between 4th-7th for the last 100 years, inside and outside of the EU, the point you are missing.

You are making the claim that we are only the 5th largest economy now because of our EU membership, but the data appears to show we are 5th regardless of our membership.

It being "a different world" is irrelevant as everyone at all times played by the rules of the day.

For your assertion that only the EU has kept us around 5th to be true, you would have to assume that pre-EU we were consistently batting above our average and that we would have fallen massively in the last 30 years to our natural position of 10th or something.

 

[Darujhistan]

six6six's argument blown out the water...

 

[George Hincapie]

That doesn't mean we are ranked higher because our economy is performing better; someone higher could have have just performed worse. Those rankings really don't tell you much.

 

[aardvark]

The UK was even stronger than it is now pre recession - whilst still being in the EU! The trend is continuing and projections indicate more steady growth (source.

correlation does not equal causation.

have a look at the GDP of the rest of the EU countries - the EU is suffering some of the lowest growth in the world for the last 5-10 years.
There are a number of benefits to staying in the EU but lets not pretend that the EU is doing well economically, because it really isn't and will likely be in recession very soon whether we stay or leave.