Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (June Poll)

[Judgeneo]

Not a hope Ireland will leave - Ireland is currently the most positive country about the EU in the EU, not eurosceptic at all.

Also EFTA will be politically impossible after a leave vote. There is no politician on earth that could sell any deal with freedom of movement to the public in the event of leaving.

Nate

There are still deeply held eurosceptic views, and a brexit would bring them right back to the fore. Many business leavers over there are suggesting that Ireland should leave if the UK does for instance.


EFTA would be impossible as a permanent solution, but not as a stepping stone. We can join it hassle free, and then set a deadline for ending negotiations with Brussels to suit us.

 

[Burnsy2023]

Thanks for the efforts. I will have a look when I have sound.

However I never claimed it was easy? Just think the scaremongering (from both sides) is excessive. I think too many countries have too much to lose whatever the outcome, so why would they cut off their nose to spite their faces so to speak?

I get perhaps they want to make an example of us if we do leave, but I think they will still try to make an example of us even if we chose to stay... which normally creates discomfort amongst members of groups that employ such tactics. With talk of a Frexit on the cards I think the EU has to tread fairly carefully. It might be able to withstand a Brexit, but a Brexit and a Frexit? It will start to wobble big time.

To summarise, because getting rid of trade tariffs are easy, but dealing with regulatory barriers is much harder. Also, we don't have the civil service capacity to negotiate more than a couple of trade deals at any one time and increasing that would be expensive and time consuming.

Also, I highly doubt there is any substantial will for France to exit the EU.

 

[Mr Jack]

"Migration watch UK today claims that migrants cost Britain up to £17 billion more than they pay in taxes.
The campaign group says migrants cost the Exchequer £46.5 million a day, reflecting the fact that migrants who arrived in the sixties are now pensioners with higher health care costs.
Migrants from the eu cost £1.2 billion last year,according to the research, which is calculated by deducting the cost of benefits and public services such as the NHS from tax payments."

I'm shocked, shocked I tell you!, that a right wing pressure group whose entire raison d'être is to campaign for lowered migration might claim migration is bad. I'd comment on their actual "research" but I can't find anything on their site to look at. In the meantime I'll prefer research from reputable, independent bodies which shows that immigrants are a net benefit for the exchequer.

 

[do_ron_ron]

Just come across a post on BBC HYS that puts forward the claim that MS Cox MP was probably killed to help the Remain camp due to the timing of her death. Unbelievable.

 

[Insanties_birth]

This video has been linked to loads, but here it is at the relevant time for Trade issues and why it's not as simple as you think it is https://youtu.be/USTypBKEd8Y?t=998

Yeah it is getting thrown around a lot. I do find it questionable though when someone hired to investigate the EU (potential bias due to job) starts a presentation by stating the one particular side has lied on an industrial scale (ignoring the lies of the remain side altogether) and then says nothing bad about the EU in any way (hinting at bias from someone who is meant to simply analyse).

One other issue I have other than the 3 big hints at bias is that he also brushed off sovereignity rather quickly as if that was somehow just a paving block to cheap trade? He may be an expert but does that mean he's entirely honest in his presentation just like some other businesses or politicians aren't? Does that mean his interpretation and view (as seen with the sovereignity issue) can't differ and then automatically not be as critical of certain issues of the EU that then differs from the public or others opinions? Does that mean he doesn't have any bias that could prevent him disclosing things (not only his job but his university relies on funding from EU so could even have pressure from others within the job to promote the EU), Admittedly trade does take some time but we would have at least 2 years to which this can also be extended as well

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/when-would-britain-leave-eu-8035111

So the idea that we can actually keep our biggest trading partner is actually a decent consolation and I have my doubts even the reports from the IMF and others took that into account as even those sort of institutions seem lofty on EU policy (such as osbourne trying to shoe horn in an emergency budget) on what would happen if we leave. He does still make a good point in that we could lose our trade agreemants with other countries but if we extend this leaving and negotiating period then ... would we actually lose anything in the mean time?

 

[Nate--IRL--]

Thanks for the efforts. I will have a look when I have sound.

However I never claimed it was easy? Just think the scaremongering (from both sides) is excessive. I think too many countries have too much to lose whatever the outcome, so why would they cut off their nose to spite their faces so to speak?

It isn't that they are cutting their nose off to spite their face, it is more that the amount of time to come to an equitable agreement takes so long.

Whether this is with the EU or other countries, these things take years. Note also all existing trade deals around the world would need to be redone too. The UK has no trade deals of its own.

I do recommend the video Burnsy has linked, it makes this a bit clearer.

Nate

 

[rawuk]

I'm shocked, shocked I tell you!, that a right wing pressure group whose entire raison d'être is to campaign for lowered migration might claim migration is bad. I'd comment on their actual "research" but I can't find anything on their site to look at. In the meantime I'll prefer research from reputable, independent bodies which shows that immigrants are a net benefit for the exchequer.

Out of interest Mr Jack do any of the other reports on this issue actually look at the impact on publicly fund services or just at the benefits vs tax argument?

I don't really have the time, or inclination, to delve that far into it myself.

 

[Nate--IRL--]

There are still deeply held eurosceptic views, and a brexit would bring them right back to the fore. Many business leavers over there are suggesting that Ireland should leave if the UK does for instance.


EFTA would be impossible as a permanent solution, but not as a stepping stone. We can join it hassle free, and then set a deadline for ending negotiations with Brussels to suit us.

We'll just have to disagree about Ireland, I think I might have a better reading of the gestalt than you though.

EFTA as a stepping stone, an interesting idea. I wonder if that could work technically.

Nate

 

[Mr Jack]

Nissan is going to sue Vote.Leave for misleadingly using their logo in their campaign literature:

On one "Vote Leave" flyer, the firm's logo appeared next to those of four other major companies including Unilever and fellow carmaker Vauxhall with the message: "Major employers ... have all said they'll stay in the UK whatever the result of the referendum."

Nissan, which says it would prefer Britain to remain in the EU, said it would be issuing legal proceedings on Monday in Britain's High Court to stop 'Vote Leave' from using its name and logo and to "prevent them making any further false statements and misrepresentations concerning Nissan."​

This comes after Unilever, Airbus and GE accuse Leave campaign of using their names for ‘propaganda’ with Unilever saying:

“The use of our company name and trademark in this way is a clear attempt to mislead the British people. Unilever does not support Vote Leave and does not advocate leaving the European Union, and never has. We believe that for jobs and investment the United Kingdom is far better off remaining a member of the EU.”​

 

[Boycey0211]

Anybody who is into modifying cars for improved performance, or whose business is based upon such work should be voting OUT as the EU would just love to have a blanket ban on modified cars. Given motorsport engineering and smaller businesses modifying and selling parts for performance road cars is a huge industry in the UK they would be suicidal to vote to Remain.

Good job they decided not to 4 years ago then!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/9758494/EU-backs-down-over-threat-to-classic-cars.html

As a modified classic owner there is currently very little threat from the EU at all over it, we already have UK laws in place anyway.

 

[Judgeneo]

We'll just have to disagree about Ireland, I think I might have a better reading of the gestalt than you though.

EFTA as a stepping stone, an interesting idea. I wonder if that could work technically.

Nate

Should work, and from what I hear its what the civil service is rumoured to be planning following brexit. Its not being mentioned though because it complicates the debate.

You probably do have a better understanding of things on the ground in Ireland, I'll give you that. My view there is shaped by my family over there (all grandparents hailed from the republic), and they're mostly eurosceptic.

 

[Mr Jack]

EFTA would be impossible as a permanent solution, but not as a stepping stone. We can join it hassle free, and then set a deadline for ending negotiations with Brussels to suit us.

This is just wishful thinking. I was in Germany last week, I've talked to quite a few people from EU countries about this, and I really think we're in for a very rude shock if we Brexit. There is really no appetite at all among the populous of the EU for cutting the UK any slack if we choose to Brexit. With elections coming up in countries across Europe, leaders will be more concerned about the views of their electorate that anything else. I think it's far more likely that the EU will simply dump us out of the union after two years than that we will manage to negotiate any kind of trade deal before then yet alone letting us have some soft halfway house deal.

 

[Burnsy2023]

Yeah it is getting thrown around a lot. I do find it questionable though when someone hired to investigate the EU (potential bias due to job) starts a presentation by stating the one particular side has lied on an industrial scale (ignoring the lies of the remain side altogether) and then says nothing bad about the EU in any way (hinting at bias from someone who is meant to simply analyse).

One other issue I have other than the 3 big hints at bias is that he also brushed off sovereignity rather quickly as if that was somehow just a paving block to cheap trade? Admittedly trade does take some time but we would have at least 2 years to which this can also be extended as well

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/when-would-britain-leave-eu-8035111

So the idea that we can actunally keep our biggest trading partner is actually a decent consolation and I have my doubts even the reports from the IMF and others took that into account as even those sort of institutions seem lofty on EU policy (such as osbourne trying to shoe horn in an emergency budget) and what would happen if we leave. He does still make a good point in that we could lose our trade agreemants with other countries but if we extend this leaving and negotiating period then ... would we actually lose anything in the mean time?

He does mention at the EU isn't perfect but that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.

One point in the video which seems to get missed (especially in the Mirror article you linked to) is that the article 50 timeline of 2 years is not to negotiate new trade agreements, it's simply to work out the divorce settlement. That's two years to work out how we break from EU institutions and not to work out trade frameworks necessarily going forward.

 

[Glaucus]

he also doesn't ignore the otherside.
Insanties_birth did you even watch it?

 

[Chris Wilson]

Good job they decided not to 4 years ago then!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/9758494/EU-backs-down-over-threat-to-classic-cars.html

As a modified classic owner there is currently very little threat from the EU at all over it, we already have UK laws in place anyway.

That was for elderly Classic vehicles, already some EU countries like Germany and some Scandinavian countries have stringent regulations on modifying modern cars for better handling or performance. The EU are just longing to bring in legislation.

 

[Mr Jack]

He does still make a good point in that we could lose our trade agreemants with other countries but if we extend this leaving and negotiating period then ... would we actually lose anything in the mean time?

The negotiating period is going to be a bad time for the UK economy. Economies do not like uncertainty, it destabilises the markets and limits investment as people delay decision making until they know what is coming. Our economy will remain depressed until we finalise any deal.

 

[Glaucus]

can we even extend it as the wording doesn't sound like we can. everything ive seen is we have two years to finalise a divorce.

 

[Woden]

This is just wishful thinking. I was in Germany last week, I've talked to quite a few people from EU countries about this, and I really think we're in for a very rude shock if we Brexit. There is really no appetite at all among the populous of the EU for cutting the UK any slack if we choose to Brexit. With elections coming up in countries across Europe, leaders will be more concerned about the views of their electorate that anything else. I think it's far more likely that the EU will simply dump us out of the union after two years than that we will manage to negotiate any kind of trade deal before then yet alone letting us have some soft halfway house deal.

There's really no incentive for the EU to give us any slack after a brexit.

I'm not saying they will sabotage the UK, but it's not in the EUs interest to help a country do well after it's left. Should the UK fail, it just shows the EU is stronger together.

 

[Insanties_birth]

He does mention at the EU isn't perfect but that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.

One point in the video which seems to get missed (especially in the Mirror article you linked to) is that the article 50 timeline of 2 years is not to negotiate new trade agreements, it's simply to work out the divorce settlement. That's two years to work out how we break from EU institutions and not to work out trade frameworks necessarily going forward.

So he spouts the typical one liner to not look biased and then mentions nothing in particular about any real world negative? You see that is kind of my issue, I've identified a few potential biases and then despite being an analyst he simply breezes past any negatives and doesn't mention them outright while picking apart the bits he wants which are only negative to leaving the EU.

While I agree with you on that part in regard to it not necessarily including trade agreemants there is still going to be trade as long as this requires and I have a feeling it will take longer than 2 years. Trade is a huge part of the divorce settlement I would figure particularly because there is few other issues that would effect the EU so heavily during financial and migration crisis and potentially losing a net contributor. It's in there benefit to keep us trading and benefiting them as well and even if they say screw that then I feel the divorce period will take longer due to us requiring to decide a lot of our policies and how it interacts with the EU (which if we're trying to negotiate back into any trade agreemant is part of our relationship with the EU by nature). Maybe I'm wrong there though.

 

[Insanties_birth]

The negotiating period is going to be a bad time for the UK economy. Economies do not like uncertainty, it destabilises the markets and limits investment as people delay decision making until they know what is coming. Our economy will remain depressed until we finalise any deal.

Agreed, it could potentially be a bad time as we're negotiating from a weak standpoint but my point is that we might even be able to draw this out with the leaving period and make that take longer in order to get more time on this.