Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (May Poll)

[Judgeneo]

I've been feeling increasingly disappointed with the left in British politics about this debate. There are many people such as Corybn and Paul Mason who are for Britain leaving the EU really, but refuse to campaign for it for party political reasons.

Mason on question time talked about how he wants to leave, but might vote to remain because he hates Boris so much. It's ludicrous.

If we do end up remaining, those people will shoulder a lot of the blame. They have the potential reach large parts of the electorate that the leave campaigns can't.

 

[[TW]Fox]

Maybe they should actually tell us what the economy will look like post exit. Ohh hang on they can't or most likely don't want to.

The key point here is that nobody actually knows what the economy will look like post exit. It's entirely uncertain.

And it's this uncertainty which drives devaluation of currency and the scaling back of business investment, which then drives some of the claims we've had about more expensive holidays and a slight GDP reduction.

How anyone can agree we don't know what it'll look like but then at the same time argue that this uncertainty won't cause the above is beyond me.

 

[MichaelAwkward]

I've criticised the £4300 figure before, it's a complete misrepresentation to take a GDP figure and divide it by the number of households and suggest that gives a reasonable measure of how much individual households would lose. However while these are significant figures that economic modelling suggests the British economy will be worse off by in the case of a Brexit, they're not a threat to UK survival. UK GDP being 6% lower in 2030 will hurt - it'll hurt the British people, it will hurt government finances, it'll hurt our businesses - but it's not a threat to the UK surviving.

Are they saying that they forecast it to be 6% lower than it would have been if everything stays the same as it has been in the last few years by 2030, because who's to say that Greece doesn't leave the eurozone next year, followed by other PIGS countries, and our GDP is hurt by an even greater amount before 2030? Or the we have another banking crisis? Or the US and China go to war? etc. etc.

It's nonsense to use that as any kind of argument against leaving the EU.

 

[antijoke]

I've been feeling increasingly disappointed with the left in British politics about this debate. There are many people such as Corybn and Paul Mason who are for Britain leaving the EU really, but refuse to campaign for it for party political reasons.

Mason on question time talked about how he wants to leave, but might vote to remain because he hates Boris so much. It's ludicrous.

If we do end up remaining, those people will shoulder a lot of the blame. They have the potential reach large parts of the electorate that the leave campaigns can't.

Totally agree with you there.

 

[No1newts]

This project fear and brandishing all the negative economy oulook by several diffrent organisations as rubbish is getting a bit old from leave group.
Maybe they should actually tell us what the economy will look like post exit. Ohh hang on they can't or most likely don't want to.

They know it will look worse, have no counter information so instead disseminate.

I was listening to something (perhaps it was The Bugle or Friday Night Comedy) and they rightly coined this EU debate as having become less about the EU and more Cameron/Boris having a monumentally large and public domestic over who gets to the leader of their party. The future of this country has been subsumed behind a hysterical screeching match over who gets to the leader next. There is no factual debating going on (though "in" are making more effort on this front as the facts align with their agenda) just preaching, fear mongering and mud slinging with not one **** being given about what is best for us, your average citizen, more what is best for a particular poiticiabs career.

It's despicable but sadly indicative of the current "democratic" system we live in.

 

[FuriousGeorge]

Because those people fought to stop the germans ruling over europe as they did in WW2 & now the remain voters want to just give it to the germans on a plate.

Can you not see that. How much more does it need spelling out to you?

A vote to remain is a vote to ring the death bell for the UK.

Good Lord.

 

[George Hincapie]

I wouldn't believe anything from the Non-EU funded groups. They are biased against the EU!

Using your impeccable logic, then we should also discount anything from EU funded groups, as they are also biased.

 

[George Hincapie]

Good Lord.

Stop. Bringing religion into the thread will finish me

 

[Glaucus]

Using your impeccable logic, then we should also discount anything from EU funded groups, as they are also biased.

oh god you really do fail don't you. not surprising with what you've already posted in this thread.

 

[bayo000]

Using your impeccable logic, then we should also discount anything from EU funded groups, as they are also biased.

Think something went over your head there

 

[scorza]

The key point here is that nobody actually knows what the economy will look like post exit. It's entirely uncertain.

And it's this uncertainty which drives devaluation of currency and the scaling back of business investment, which then drives some of the claims we've had about more expensive holidays and a slight GDP reduction.

How anyone can agree we don't know what it'll look like but then at the same time argue that this uncertainty won't cause the above is beyond me.

Nobody knows what the economy will look like post-remain either - certainly neither the Bank of England or the OBR have a great track record of predicting this. I don't recall hearing much from the IFS, IMF and World Bank predicting the 2008 financial crisis either. The government know they can't make arguments based on verifiable claims about what benefits the EU bring, so they produce unverifiable claims about what may happen in future.

BTW devaluation of the currency will make Britain a more attractive place to invest in, increase GDP growth and reduce our trade deficit. Oh but it makes our fortnight in Benidorm £200 more expensive so it must be a bad thing. Really.

 

[scorza]

Mason on question time talked about how he wants to leave, but might vote to remain because he hates Boris so much. It's ludicrous.

I lost a lot of respect I had for Paul Mason when I heard that.

 

[kindai]

Austria, Finland & Sweden in 1995. Cyprus joined in 2004 and is a borderline contributor by the looks of it.

So,

20 years ago for any major contributor.

If the EU is so great, why aren't other major contributing economies wanting to join?

 

[Mr Jack]

Are they saying that they forecast it to be 6% lower than it would have been if everything stays the same as it has been in the last few years by 2030, because who's to say that Greece doesn't leave the eurozone next year, followed by other PIGS countries, and our GDP is hurt by an even greater amount before 2030? Or the we have another banking crisis? Or the US and China go to war? etc. etc.

No, that's not how the modelling works. The forecasts aren't assuming an unchanged background; it's attempting to model the impact of leaving the EU in particular. These kinds of forecast are generally considered to be more accurate than forecasts which seek to predict the exact level of the economy at any particular future time.

You can think of it as being similar to climate modelling, where long term trend prediction is a lot more solid than prediction of the weather on any particular day or month.

 

[[TFU] Thegoon84]

I lost a lot of respect I had for Paul Mason when I heard that.

I don't get this.... Sorry but what Paul was implying was true!

I'd like to vote out, but the thought of an untethered tory government scares the absolute living **** out of me. People like Gove, Boris, Hunt.... No way!

So like Paul, I too am back on the fence!

 

[bloodiedathame]

I don't get this.... Sorry but what Paul was implying was true!

I'd like to vote out, but the thought of an untethered tory government scares the absolute living **** out of me. People like Gove, Boris, Hunt.... No way!

So like Paul, I too am back on the fence!

It's a very good point. The upside is that we have a General Election to end it, which, I hope, the Tories can't rig.

The EU vote is a once in a lifetime one, that they are doing their best to rig.

 

[[TFU] Thegoon84]

It's a very good point. The upside is that we have a General Election to end it, which, I hope, the Tories can't rig.

The EU vote is a once in a lifetime one, that they are doing their best to rig.

If they offered a gen following a brexit I'd vote out!

I also don't believe this is the last chance we've got of having a vote, especially as its likely to be so close.

 

[Freakbro]

The BBC article states the IFS gets 11% of it's funding from the EU. 11% funding is enough to secure a favourable report, or don't you think?

No I don't, I do think it is a pathetically weak retort from the Leave camp, one they just repeat ad nauseam every time a report comes out that they don't like because they have no actual response to the information.

 

[Tunney]

If the EU is so great, why aren't other major contributing economies wanting to join?

Geography? I'm sure Canada would join if we asked nicely.

 

[bloodiedathame]

No I don't, I do think it is a pathetically weak retort from the Leave camp, one they just repeat ad nauseam every time a report comes out that they don't like because they have no actual response to the information.

I think backhanders or funding for businesses and institutions whose noses would be cut off were they to leave the EU is the single biggest reason I'd vote out, it's corruption. And it's a perfectly legit response.