Poll: The EU Referendum: What Will You Vote? (New Poll)

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?


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Wait... so when a government changes, and some policies change significantly... is that a change of establishment, or does the establishment behind the scenes simply change their minds about those issues?

Or is that only policies the shadow establishment don't want changed can ever be changed?

Do you have some examples of policies that are set by the shadow government, and can't be part of any party's manifesto? I'm curious to know.

The government and the establishment are two completely different things. The government might change, but does anything really change? There might be tweaks here and there on matters such as education or the environment, but nothing significantly changes. The last PM we had who managed to change things was Mrs Thatcher

Interestingly, in Mullins book, one of the tools in the establishments shed is being able to cause a run on sterling. Nothing like a run on sterling to give the voters the jitters
 
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I think you need to think about the broader and longer term consequences over the next 20 -50 years, instead of 'Cos of fishing in Scotland that were reduce as Spanish stolen oor fish so gimme us back and access large area for fish'...

He has a point, the common fisheries policy has been disastrous for the British fishing industry and fish stocks around the country. Norway otoh, who sensibly voted to stay out of the EU, still has a healthy and profitable fishing industry
 
This is pretty exciting now. The whole thing has transformed in the public eye from a semi-laughable 'dem jerbs' debate to an argument for sovereignty, perhaps one largely based on that principle alone. That is against an argument for caution and practical realities.

Change is always more exciting and the principle of sovereignty is certainly not a bad one. So to me it's sort of a 'heart' vs 'brain' situation (hearts say we leave, brains say we stay). Sometimes one is better than the other. I suppose you just have to hope that people are voting with their hearts in the right place and not a total 'dem jerbs immigration derp derp' mode.
 
Re Hannan vs Mandelson on the FT's website. Problems with the BRIC trade atm:

  • Difficult to establish and maintain trade deals which protect our businesses (not from competition, but shoddy law)
  • High corruption
  • Risk is higher
  • Cost is higher
  • GDP per capita is such that few can afford or are interested in our services
  • Variable to low return
  • Bonus: We are close to a state of a mini-cold war with R
  • Bonus: China loves dumping strategies, and their official economic stats have been drawn under increased scrutiny; state-capitalism is both hard to penetrate and difficult to win against with a relatively smaller economy
  • Bonus: Of course our arms trade would do well enough, if you swing that way

Hannan had a point about the trade stat though. I think from the report I quoted earlier it's 41%-48% (projected to grow to what Mandelson was quoting) to the EU. Unless of course the Master of the Dark Arts had access to more up-to-date briefings than parliament or ONS. :o
 
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Education is a whole can of worms of its own. Did I suggest I want to eradicate the poor, the unskilled and the academically failed? The idea behind having a thriving economy, is to be able to afford to lift the lot of your citizenry up over time, whatever the social grade, and to grow the middle classes (well, unless you either don't believe in class or have a fiercly classist attitude against the 'middle-class pump' concept).

I do believe I've already recommended importing the German vocational education model, and having joint modern languages programmes with schools in Europe, however. Making our working classes, particularly youngsters, more mobile and better equipped to take up opportunities wherever they are. Naturally my solutions need the EU, to share the burden of getting the extra funding in place, and making it all a success; whilst giving our citizens both a larger pool of potential jobs, and an opportunity to get their training/education for less. Our higher education is good, but the vocational routes are very competitive on the continent too. It's a shame we don't use them more often.

Bits and bobs can be done outside of the bloc too. It'd just take more money, and you would have to overcome a lot of institutional inertia in the face of the economic re-alignment, which would be a higher priority if we depart.

Another obvious point is to forego our obsession with the end of year exam grades only, as a measure of competency. It's not great for vocational training. We need to be able to utilise the rest, whilst selecting the 'best'. Plus, if we do want more people going the more academic route, we need to expand distance and mature learning, to avoid locking people into a particular career path for life or trapping them in insecure jobs, without a means out of the rut.

The details would really fall upon which political ideology you subscribe to. I should imagine the current government would continue applying the stick and tough love. I'm not so sure it'd get them the skills and the numbers they need to cut immigration en-masse, though. For now, we are facing a major referendum, and not much money is forthcoming from the treasury. The academies programme, plus the reshuffled student finance arrangements, is what we are betting on for now.

Nonetheless, whatever you do, immigration plugs a gap, and we need it. Feel free to offer your Out-flavoured alternative options.
No but your very pro EU and pro migration and that seems to be causing these issues at the moment or at least exacerbating them so thought I'd get your opinion on it :p Hopefully we'll make more out of this EU venture in the feature as regards to education then.

I fear our referendum vote has highlihgted the difficulties of getting the EU to co-operate in some regards to moving around funding, laws and practices. This is more conjecture on my side at the moment as I'm not saying you condone the way the education is being done but I do feel there's an argument to be made as to the prospects and environment to drive better education being difficult while in the EU.

I'm not really proposing an option as I actually believe I'm unqualified to do so, more just picking your brain to help see into your mindset as to whether the EU could have been an influence on the current state of education. I'm not blaming the EU or our own government or expecting people to offer answers but just having a general query since you seem knowledgeable on such affairs.
 
Total change of heart if a significant amount of Tory MP`s are rejecting the idea, the EU can only be a good thing.

IN IN IN.
 

I don't think it'd be a quick and easy fix, no. Germany would see eye-to-eye with us on the matter, however: our education systems can form a nice synergy, and swooping France and the rest up on the way, can finally start challenging the USA/China in both volume and quality of output across social grades (though both of our major competitors have their own systematic problems here, e.g. the industrial working class is completely shafted in the latter); especially, if we don't turn up in Brussels at the last possible moment to demand a policy shift on the spot.;) As I've said before, we do reasonably well at present(which is probably why people think I am either a robber baron, or don't care much about how the other half lives), but we could perform so much better.

Britain isn't the only country in the EU where economic migration goes, after all! All large economies in the bloc are facing similar challenges. Trials and case studies need to happen before anything else, of course, regarding join education and vocational training efforts; and there must be political will on our side to utilise Europe for mutual benefit, where possible. This attitude of having to be seen to 'win big' every time hampers our negotiators and encourages grandstanding on issues. It's almost childish at times.

But if you look at who holds those precious 8% vote shares (the often misrepresented figure, not really indicative of our impact) in the EUP, us EU-old-timer countries can also effectively horse-trade with the occasionally intransigent or unruly upstart groupings (all nations can herp and derp) from the periphery and new ascendants, should we choose to. Naturally, the European way of consensus politics won't win over the 'ultimatum or nothing' sceptics, but one does hope the rest can see sense in distributing European problems over European shoulders, so to speak.

In short, the sands of Europe do not shift over night, but they do shift. One has to start the reform process somewhere. And so, the sooner we are done pointing fingers and consulting the public, the sooner we can start on the real work to be done. The Leave vote would set the needed reforms back a few decades, imho. The ball is in the electorate's court now.
 
Total change of heart if a significant amount of Tory MP`s are rejecting the idea, the EU can only be a good thing.

IN IN IN.

What a terrible way to base your vote on. Labour hasn't always been pro EU either.


On 20th November 1991 Tony Benn said: said:
“Some people genuinely believe that we shall never get social justice from the British Government, but we shall get it from Jacques Delors; They believe that a good king is better than a bad Parliament. I have never taken that view. Others believe that the change is inevitable, and that the common currency will protect us from inflation and will provide a wage policy. They believe that it will control speculation and that Britain cannot survive alone. None of those arguments persuade me because the argument has never been about sovereignty.

I do not know what a sovereign is, apart from the one that used to be in gold and the Pope who is sovereign in the Vatican. We are talking about democracy. No nation – not even the great United States which could, for all I know, be destroyed by a nuclear weapon from a third-world country – has the power to impose its will on other countries. We are discussing whether the British people are to be allowed to elect those who make the laws under which they are governed. The argument is nothing to do with whether we should get more maternity leave from Madame Papandreou [a European Commissioner] than from Madame Thatcher.

That is not the issue. I recognize that when the members of the three Front Benches agree, I am in a minority. My next job therefore is to explain to the people of Chesterfield what we have decided. I will say first, ‘My dear constituents, in future you will be governed by people whom you do not elect and cannot remove. I am sorry about it. They may give you better creches and shorter working hours but you cannot remove them.’ I know that it sounds negative but I have always thought it as positive to say that the important thing about democracy is that we can remove without bloodshed the people who govern us.

We can get rid of a Callaghan, a Wilson or even a Right Hon. Lady by internal processes. We can get rid of a Right Hon. Member for Huntingdon (Mr Major). But that cannot be done in the structure that is proposed. Even if one likes the policies of the people in Europe one cannot get rid of them. Secondly, we say to my favourite friends, the Chartists and suffragettes, ‘All your struggles to get control of the ballot box were a waste of time. We shall be run in future by a few white persons, as in 1832.’ The instrument, I might add, is the Royal Prerogative of treaty making. For the first time since 1649 the Crown makes the laws – advised, I admit, by the Prime Minister.

We must ask what will happen when people realize what we have done. We have had a marvellous debate about Europe, but none of us has discussed our relationship with the people who sent us here. Hon. Members have expressed views on Albania and the Baltic states. I have been dazzled by the knowledge of the continent of which we are all part. NO one has spoken about how he or she got here and what we were sent here to do.

If people lose the power to sack their Government one of several things happens. First, people may just slope off. Apathy could destroy democracy. When the turnout drops below 50 per cent, we are in danger… The second thing that people can do is to riot. Riot is an old-fashioned method for drawing the attention of the Government to what is wrong. It is difficult for an elected person to admit it, but the riot at Strangeways produced some prison reforms. Riot has historically played a much larger part in British politics than we are ever allowed to know. Thirdly, nationalism can arise. Instead of blaming the Treaty of Rome, people say, ‘It is those Germans’ or ‘It is the French’. Nationalism is built out of frustration that people feel when they cannot get their way through the ballot box. With nationalism comes repression.

I hope that it is not pessimistic – in my view it is not – to say that democracy hangs by a thread in every country of the world. Unless we can offer people a peaceful route to the resolution of injustices through the ballot box they will not listen to a House that has blocked off that route. There are many alternatives open to us. One Hon. Member said that he was young and had not fought in the war. He looked at a new Europe. But there have been five Europes this century.

There was one run by the King, the Kaiser and the Tsar – they were all cousins so that was very comfortable. They were all Queen Victoria’s grandsons. And there was no nonsense about human rights when Queen Victoria’s grandsons repressed people. Then there was the Russian revolution. Then there was the inter-war period. Then there was the Anglo-Soviet alliance. Then there was the cold war. Now we have a Boris Yeltsin who has joined the Monday Club. There have been so many Europes. This is not the only Europe on offer.

Another way would be to have a looser, wider Europe. I have an idea for a Commonwealth of Europe. I am introducing a bill on the subject. Europe would be rather like the British Common-wealth. We would work by consent with people. Or we could accept this ghastly proposal, which is clumsy, secretive, centralized, bureaucratic and divisive. That is how I regard the Treaty of Rome. I was born a European and I will die one. But I have never put my alliance behind the Treaty of Rome. I object to it. I hate being called an anti-European. How can one be anti-European when one is born in Europe? It is like saying that one is anti-British if one does not agree with the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

What a lot of nonsense it is. I ask myself why the House is ready to contemplate abandoning its duties, as I fear that it is. I was elected forty-one years ago this month. This Chamber has lost confidence in democracy. It believes that it must be governed by someone else. It is afraid to use the powers entrusted to it by its constituents.

It has traded power for status. One gets asked to go on the telly if one is a Member of Parliament. The Chamber does not want to use its power. It has accepted the role of a spectator and joined what Bagehot called the dignified part of the constitution, leaving the Crown, under the control of the Prime Minister, to be the Executive part. If democracy is destroyed in Britain it will be not the communists, Trotskyists or subversives but this House which threw it away. The rights that are entrusted to us are not for us to give away.

Even if I agree with everything that is proposed, I cannot hand away powers lent to me for five years by the people of Chesterfield. I just could not do it. It would be theft of public rights. Therefore, there is only one answer. If people are determined to submit themselves to Jacques Delors, Madame Papandreou and the Council of Ministers, we must tell the people what is planned. If people vote for that, they will all have capitulated. Julius Caesar said, ‘We are just merging our sovereignty.’ So did William the Conqueror.

It is not possible to support the Government’s motion. I have told the Chief Whip that I cannot support the Labour motion. I invite the House to vote against the Government’s motion and not to support a motion which purports to take us faster into a Community which cannot reflect the aspirations of those who put us here. That is not a nationalist argument nor is it about sovereignty. It is a democratic argument and it should be decisive in a democratic Chamber.“
 
Yeah that's what I was wondering, I'm kind of aloof to what level EU plays in education so thought I'd get your opinion on it. I like to give the EU a good bashing now and again so I say some anti-EU stuff but the fact that we've been in it for quite a lot of years and we've had no major wars, most politicians back it, most of the public don't truly notice it hampering there day to day life and it's improving our overall relations etc. then I do feel the referendum tackled my other major issues. Education was one of the last gray areas for me as the vote requires people just understand how the EU effects there day to day lives and then vote on how important the negatives are vs the positives but I can't disagree that the migration and education issues are common issues of any developing nation and it seems brussels don't have there hands in the education pie yet.

I really hope they do buckle down and fix it (the UK I mean) but we'll have to see on that regard. At least I can say I've learned a lot from the thread and can vote on a more objective standpoint and there's a few months left before we vote anyway so even more time to keep a more general and less involved eye on the thread and read more news / breakdowns etc.
 
Yeah that's what I was wondering, I'm kind of aloof to what level EU plays in education so thought I'd get your opinion on it. I like to give the EU a good bashing now and again so I say some anti-EU stuff but the fact that we've been in it for quite a lot of years and we've had no major wars, most politicians back it, most of the public don't truly notice it hampering there day to day life and it's improving our overall relations etc. then I do feel the referendum tackled my other major issues. Education was one of the last gray areas for me as the vote requires people just understand how the EU effects there day to day lives and then vote on how important the negatives are vs the positives but I can't disagree that the migration and education issues are common issues of any developing nation and it seems brussels don't have there hands in the education pie yet.

I really hope they do buckle down and fix it (the UK I mean) but we'll have to see on that regard. At least I can say I've learned a lot from the thread and can vote on a more objective standpoint and there's a few months left before we vote anyway so even more time to keep a more general and less involved eye on the thread and read more news / breakdowns etc.

Top current advantages for our students in Europe at present are:

*Lower fee options available (not always cost of living), 1/10 of the levels here or free in some cases
*International courses taught in English^
*European Qualifications Framework^
*Better vocational training available, even in industries that are considered too costly to exclusively base and run here
*The indirect benefit of networking and learning a second language^
*The ease of starting work after graduation or doing work-based components without additional visa hassles, renewals, worries over residence, pensions, etc
*The ability to take quals, skills and experience anywhere in the EU^

^-- most likely won't be significantly affected or changed by our exit.

We already run school trips, student Olympiads and exchanges; but it would be really nice to get the modern languages cooperation, at secondary level or earlier, sorted in a more formal way. Taking a wild guess here, but the most likely type of school to do something like this off their own back at present would be in the private sector.
 
Further to my out vote

I see it as a similar thing to Scotland
The opinion polls may well tighten up when people come to bite the bullet
But I think if we stay in the EU block could be even more anti UK than they already are (almost like one upping us)

I almost see it like a heart vs head thing
It's going to be status quo or slightly worse if we stay in, but keep our distance from an ever more integrating EU. Isn't this a bad thing in itself? Better to be right in or right out. Not sitting on the bench.

Also, my riskophilic side wants to see if we pass or fail going on our own.
It probably will be hard initially. Stock markets hit, pound weak.. But after people see we either cope or don't it will probably level. Out
I don't think the UK will suddenly fall apart, many many other countries manage on thier own.
It will obviously hurt the EU a bit, as we are a net contributor

But the chance just to come out in better shape..?
Well, they always say it's better to try than always wonder what if...

Yeah the stakes are high.. But isn't that what makes life exciting?

It will be my most important vote ever.. Much more significant than general election
Repercussions.. Good or bad.. I'm sure will occur.
I really hope we go out. We aren't "European" and we don't want tighter integration like EU want
 
How do you feel we will do if on the back of an exit vote Scotland then votes to leave the UK and rejoin the EU as an independent state (this is been restated by the Scottish Government as the likely consequence to a Uk vote to leave the EU). This leaves England, Wales and NI not only outside of the EU but looking at the impact we'd see from the UK leaving the EU followed a year or two later by the break up of the UK.
 
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