Poll: The EU Referendum: What Will You Vote?

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?


  • Total voters
    790
Status
Not open for further replies.
Lot's of real world results are counter-intuative though, and this is what studies using the available data are saying



Ok, even in the reports they acknowledge there has been a small negative effect on young & low paid employment from immigration, but the overall effect to the country has only been a positive boost to employment, wages and GDP

I know what people's gut feelings are telling them and I hear plenty of anecdotal eveidence myself, but report after report seems to be saying different.

Reports find what the authors want them to find. Remember that discredited academic study that found that EU immigrants were a net boost to the economy but non-EU immigrants were a net drain? Well duh since most people in their 20s and 30s are a net benefit but when they retire they become a net drain as the don't work and claim benefits, and since there was loads of non-EU migration in the '60s the author found exactly what he wanted to find.

Also, wasn't it the London School of Extremism that produced the infamous 13,000 migrants from Poland study?
 
Reports find what the authors want them to find. Remember that discredited academic study that found that EU immigrants were a net boost to the economy but non-EU immigrants were a net drain? Well duh since most people in their 20s and 30s are a net benefit but when they retire they become a net drain as the don't work and claim benefits, and since there was loads of non-EU migration in the '60s the author found exactly what he wanted to find.

Also, wasn't it the London School of Extremism that produced the infamous 13,000 migrants from Poland study?

So what are you saying, we can't trust any academic study and must rely on our gut feelings?
 
So what are you saying, we can't trust any academic study and must rely on our gut feelings?

I guess he's saying its good to question and scrutinised any report commissioned by any body that has an interest in getting a specific answer.

Even when someone does have the balls to offer an independent opinion and not what the Government wanted to hear when they commissioned it, they just get rid of the guy and bin the report (remember the report that said cannabis should be legalised and they sacked the guy who wrote it?)

Don't forget these reports are not the same as the scientific process where what you say is peer reviewed and you have to gain consensus before it is regarded as true.
 
Last edited:
I believed the guy resigned as did a few of his colleges. He was a medical proffessional with qualifications and it didn't suit the attitude of voters at the time.
 
I guess he's saying its good to question and scrutinised any report commissioned by any body that has an interest in getting a specific answer.

Even when someone does have the balls to offer an independent opinion and not what the Government wanted to hear when they commissioned it, they just get rid of the guy and bin the report (remember the report that said cannabis should be legalised and they sacked the guy who wrote it?)

Don't forget these reports are not the same as the scientific process where what you say is peer reviewed and you have to gain consensus before it is regarded as true.




Actually, a majority of these reports in general are scientific research and are published in peer-reviewed academic journals. Now government bodies do request specific reports and will typically request these from Academic professors who have published in the relevant fields. A summary report may then be provided to the government that isn't itself peer reviewed , but most of the data and findings within the report will almost certainly be taken form prior peer-reviewed and published research, with citations provided.



In the specific case on immigration impacts on mean salaries, there is a scientific consensus of relatively insignificant effects and potentially positive effects, especially form EU-migration which is actually composed of a lot of skilled workers, in fact there is a mix on skilled and unskilled but neither group makes a negative pressure on salaries.

There are a few key points to remember:
1) The minimum wage is a hard lower bound on salaries. the completely unskilled menial labors are paid minimum wage, it makes absolutely no difference if this is a British citizen or other EU citizens doing the job at min wage, there is no change in mean salaries.
2) Skilled workers get paid the market rate, and EU migrants on average are more skilled than British workers - more likely to have a degree for example. people tend to think of factory workers and farm laborers when talking about immigrants form Poland but they are also going to be software engineers working for investment banks in the city, etc. Employers of skilled laborer pay market rates, and the companies are at competition each other to retain the best employees, which is what drivers up the salaries in the first place. There is absolutely no advantage in paying a good Polish web designer less than the rest of the employees, he will just move on to a different company that gives a fair pay.
3) Many companies have fixed pay grades, age,, years experience and education are simply plugged into a formula with the job type and a salary figure produced. This is especial true for public entities like the NHS, which is one of the largest employers of immigrants.
4) it is illegal to discriminate based on race, nationality, place of birth or religion. Paying someone less because they come form Romania could land the employer into legal issues.
5) Most people simply aren't racists and discriminatory so wont differentiate salaries based on nationality.
6) Immigrants just like anyone else want to earn the best wage possible, why work at £12 an hour for company X if company Y offers £15? Immigrants tend to support each other in getting good results. If an immigrant software engineer is earning £55K at one firm in London and his immigrant friend is earning £40K at a different firm, if a suitable position is opening you can be sure the former tells the latter and tries to get his mate an interview at the better paying software firm.
7) The whole of the EU is an open market, immigrants don't only go to the UK, they also go to countries that have a higher minimum wage than the UK, or different markets with different salaries. If the average UK salary for a particular employment area is lower than France or Germany then many migrants simply wont go to the UK, and market economics will mean the UK salaries may actually increase.
8)Immigration provably increases GDP and GDP per capita, which ultimately increases average net worth and average salaries.




Finally, the solution to prevent possible wage depreciation due to immigration is absolutely not to reduce immigration, which would have a large negative effect on the economy. Instead the UK and or EU could bring in legislation to make it illegal to pay a foreign national less than the median salary for that job in the local area, and have the employers have to prove to a governing body that the salaries are all aligned. The US does this for example. however, it is mostly a waste of time because as proven countless times, immigrants dont negatively impact average salaries so it is extra red tape just to appease the xenophobes.
 
We should restart the poll again methinks, to recalibrate opinion.

Cannot believe that we are so 50:50 on this. It seems a no brainer to approve staying in.

Tbh if the poll was new I think there maybe a slight majority in favor of leaving. I recall when this thread opened after about 2 weeks staying in was at about 60/70%. I've not checked this for ages and I was quite surprised to see how much the gap had narrowed.

Tbh I've not made up mine mind on staying or leaving. I honestly think while a vote to leave will be a major symbolic one it's not going to make a huge difference to our life's in the long run. We still need migrants to fill jobs, we still do the bulk of our trade with the EU which means our products and supplies will have to conform to EU law. I suppose if we left it would give the UK government more flexibility on certain areas of policy but not as much as some people want us to believe.
 
I stopped reading after that. When I was young and immigration was low there was plenty of jobs.

Companies would also train you up to do the job they need. Now none of that happens.

Of course you stopped reading after that. You ignore the facts and rely on anecdotal soundbites to help support the position you want to be true.
 
I Was on the fence, but after hearing the latest statement from some of the other countries that basically so absolutely flat out no to talking about their people getting benefits here once they arrive has me saying "no" now.

If they are not even open to discuss things...what kinds of "partnership" or "community" is this?
 
I've been in work since 1972(now retired) And I could walk out of one job in to another the same day. Try that now!

Then we moved from the common market to what is now the EU and the UK went to pot. I'll tell you how bad it's got.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

When I was 14 I used to go where they was building a housing estate and ask for weekend work loading up breeze blocks for the bedroom walls. I used to earn £5 a day which awesome :D

Try that now....not a hope in hell. To many rules and to many people and not enough places to live in.

Firstly, what makes you think that without the EU we would not have improved health and safety and child labour laws? Especially since much of this legislation is UK rather than EU, anyway?

Secondly, how many more people would you like to see die in their workplace each year in order to get back to a time when you could wander onto a building site at 14 and make £5/day? (Rates of workplace deaths have halved in the last 20 years, I suspect the fall in the 20 years before that was much greater but I can't find figures)
 
I Was on the fence, but after hearing the latest statement from some of the other countries that basically so absolutely flat out no to talking about their people getting benefits here once they arrive has me saying "no" now.

If they are not even open to discuss things...what kinds of "partnership" or "community" is this?

You can't expect to turn up at a club of 28 members, and change your mind over something you agreed to near the founding of the club and which is seen by the other 27 members of the club as a key point of the club and is wildly popular with the democratic support for the other 27 members (57% of EU citizens lists the freedom to work as the best thing about the EU) and have them simply roll over.

If Cameron was a more competent negotiator instead of desperately inept in Europe and wasn't pulling this against a backdrop of a threatened withdrawal from the EU, he'd find it much easier to find a resolution that addresses his concerns. It doesn't help that he's essentially decided to make a near phantom concern a key demand - it's a lot easier to get people to help you out with a real problem than one that you fanned up in a mountain from a tiny molehill in order to try and win political battles at home.
 
This is conservatives were talking about maybe he's supposed to fail in his negotiations to try and tip the balance to an out vote. Thus allowing them to enact whatever diabolical plans they have without EU interference.
 
Just get out the EU the behemoth it has become. All its been is red tape, funny money, don't do this don't do that and unsigned accounts since its inception. :rolleyes:

A bloody big con that's what the EU is, hopefully the British public will see sense and GTFO of it. :mad:
 
I'm for leaving the EU, but as people have mentioned, our visa system is currently a nightmare, and an expensive one at that.

I'm soon to go through the process of getting a partner visa for my GF. Its cheaper for me to apply for an Irish passport (Grandparents from there) and apply for an Irish partner visa that it would be to apply for the British partner visa alone. Its a joke.

We know someone who did this using the Italian partner visa system, saved them £600.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom