It's not the "most of the time" I'm talking about - the remainder is when the game simply is pay2win... No amount of learning would allow me to beat that Jaraxxus play in that situation... I can learn that Handlocks play the infamous big-taunt wall, so I should save things like silence etc. as long as possible in case I need to break through something heavy near the end... I can learn that they put the taunt wall up easily once their health drops low enough to enable 2x molten giants so I shouldn't drop them too low before I'm prepared... But what can I really learn about them having Jaraxxus? Nothing... They have it, oh well game over for me... Guess I should just concede right at the start in future
Facetiousness aside - I agree that on balance HS is fairly generous towards players who aren't spending any money and that you can generally compete okay even without the rarest cards in the game, but some of the toys that are locked away behind a pay/grind wall are a bit too OP and having them gives you an undeniable advantage even if you are a bad player
Honestly, I think you described the answer to your problem there
"so I should save things like silence etc. as long as possible in case I need to break through something heavy near the end"
You need to orientate your strategy around the fact that he will drop jaraxus eventually, so in which case you need to slap his face quickly enough not to allow him to do this. (assuming you know that he has jax in is deck... sometimes the problem with the game is assuming the type of decks your opponent has when infact he doesn't field the very cards which you are strategizing for.
Easier said than done I know and as I mentioned earlier, sometimes youre not gonna be able to do anything, even if you are fielding a "P2W" deck also.
Swings, roundabouts etc