Differences in processes aside both will give roughly 2x Per/W.
If AMD with the card replacing the 380 are going for half the power, then that gives the same performance, but if NVidia are going for the same power then that gives twice the performance, hence why it could be a massive performance difference. (of course all that is +/- a bit of leeway)
Personally I hope this is all wrong and they both head down the more performance route, as do we really care if a card uses 100, 150 or 200 watts it is how it performs that counts.
Looking at the leaked rumours we have,fully enabled Polaris 10 is a 2560 shader chip running at a higher clockspeed than an R9 390/390X. It probably means around R9 390 to Fury(not Fury X) level performance at 1080P and 2560P but in a card which has the same power envelope as the GTX960.
OFC,I am making the assumption that GCN MK4 has similar performance to GCN1.3 but most of the improvements are aimed at power consumption.
The GP106 seems to be a smaller chip around 200MM2 with a 128 bit memory controller.
If AMD go power usage/value route, and Nvidia go performance, it's truly the beginning of the end for AMD. Nvidia already have such a huge market share, it puts AMD in a different consumer category altogether, one that will potentially alienate a huge percentage of their already small consumer base (relative to Nvidia). I think this will be bad for us all in the long run, given the lack of competition Nvidia will have, so I hope I'm wrong, but it looks like it may be heading that way...
Except Nvidia more or less went that way with Maxwell - all cheaper to make parts with lower power consumption when compared to Kepler with similar or a bit better performance,and the major damage was mostly done by cards like the GTX750TI,GTX960 and GTX970.
These all ended up in OEM desktops and laptops instead of AMD having like 30% to 40% of cards shipped per quarter they went down to around 20% as a result of this.
If you look at the dGPU marketshare figures,AMD has been destroyed in laptops and prebuilt desktops with Maxwell,and this is co-incided with the major drop in sales.
If anything if it means they get far more exposure in OEM laptops and desktop,their marketshare probably will end up growing.
Remember,even with the HD3000 series where ATI could only not even match the third fastest Nvidia card,ie,the 8800GT,they still were at 30% to 40% of units shipped per quarter.
That is because in both laptops and prebuilt desktops they still were reasonably well represented.
No doubt this will be incredibly boring for the crowd who buy £250+ cards,but if AMD can deliver on strong value cards,I think they can still get reasonable sales IMHO.
Remember,Vega is still on the cards for a late 2016 release(probably the end of December) so that is an unknown quantity.