Soldato
- Joined
- 11 Mar 2013
- Posts
- 5,502
By spring 2016. I very much doubt Nvidia will go more than a year and a half without releasing a new generation.
This 100%^
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By spring 2016. I very much doubt Nvidia will go more than a year and a half without releasing a new generation.
If they are only starting to produce the HBM2 memory in Q1 next year, then there is no way we are seeing Pascal in Q2, surely. Given that the memory needs to be shipped, products assembled, tested, refined, and shipped again.
I've worked in a production environment in the past and there is no 'refine' after testing. Its test, QC, then packaging.
With GPUs post production refinement tends to turn up as a refresh 6+ months later.
And QC tends to be - oh that sample failed? keep pulling samples until one passes then certify it :S
I love the enthusiasm in a word: 'Stick/Stuck' It is so simple to put separate next gen parts together these days, isn't it? Just glue them together and the whole package just works. magic
I'd guess a lot will just depend on what kind of quantities they can deliver to Nvidia and how quickly.If they are only starting to produce the HBM2 memory in Q1 next year, then there is no way we are seeing Pascal in Q2, surely. Given that the memory needs to be shipped, products assembled, tested, refined, and shipped again.
When it comes to engineers, it is or should be that simple. They are skiloed in their field and know what they are doing and would have already experimented with it, even if it was HBM 1.
1050Ti pipe cleaner limited release Q1
GP104 mid-range masquerading as high-end Q2
Who knows for full chip, as yields allow I suppose.
They need to seriously think of a better name for the 1050ti.
So is the pipe cleaner what the 980ti is to a titan x, a slighty less powerful card but a lot cheaper?
Well, it is unwritten rule in the industry to not do next gen arch, next gen process and next gen memory controller/system at once. Intel does not do that anymore, AMD doe not do that anymore, and nvidia shouldn't be doing this, yet they are.
There are numerous times in history when companies trying to do even two next gen things together fail miserably. Nvidia done it in the past, AMD done it in the past and Intel done it in the past.
With process tech going more complicated and smaller it is more chance something to go wrong with dies itself, not even mentioning new memory tech and architecture.
So no, it is not that simple even with the brightest and richest engineering teams. nVidia would need to pull a major miracle to release all those next gen pieces together and working. And, no, fiddling with couple of samples of HBM in the lab is not experience by any stretch, especially when none of us here know how those couple of samples are behaving, since no one would ever admit that they are failing or working perfectly.
By spring 2016. I very much doubt Nvidia will go more than a year and a half without releasing a new generation.
Pascal isn't a next gen architecture, Maxwell is the next gen architecture that will take Nvidia through to Volta and perhaps beyond. Pascal is Maxwell scaled up and a new memory controller for HBM2.
AMD will have a brand new architecture "beyond GCN" and a new process. So Both AMd and Nvidia will be having 2 new technologies. Neither of them can do much about that, 16nm was delayed.
I hope its within the first 4 months of 2016.
I'm currently sitting on the fence of either grabbing a 980Ti now with a whole new build or waiting for Pascal. I am so indecisive when it comes to upgrades.
AMD will have a brand new architecture "beyond GCN"
I will "eat my hat" if they release the "big" pascal (980ti / titan equivalent) in the first 4 months of next year. I expect it will be near the end of 2016, especially the 980ti version, the titan version will probably come first then the 980ti version when they have enough titan rejects. Probably Q3 - Q4 2016 for a pascal 980ti