I think he means full path tracing is 20 years away if we keep increasing RT performance as we are seeing.
Fair enough on that but still just a very rough guess on his end if all he is looking at is hardware advancement. I think there is still a heck of a lot that can be improved via software/drivers methods both from nvidia and amds end as well as developers getting the best from their end, same way they have done with raster over the years.
That and upscaling plus frame generation kind of tech. will be pivotal to bring it much sooner.
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