Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[silversurfer]

Gold is being used as cash due to dollar becoming unstable from politics and a bad balance of trade. As that increase continues so its worth grows, its not investment but 10% as a form of cash is reasonable, cash is used so you will 'make' something -inflation gains in the main

Its not a coincidence, a one off, a bubble based on nothing, its not going to reverse suddenly as politics decides not to screw up their economies. If you look beyond the timespan of your own short life the price rises are quite justified and normal.
Look at moneyflows and magnitude of money driving bonds and forex and that is what is driving the price of gold up in future

http://youtu.be/_o3FYhL22MY
The 5yr USA bond yield is less then 1% now and gold yields zero, its not a big jump to see why its an alternative in wealth retention

gold is value in $ after all

Dollars in value are gold after all, thats the part that got mixed up. Whichever holds its value better now will be the one used for trade between countries.
They are panicking at 7% rates, these used to be normal, In 1980 at last gold spike it was 15% rates that caused a gold decline

Treasury sells $29 bln in 7-year notes at a yield of 1.415%

Please tell me which of the two markets is more ridiculously overvalued and ignorant of fundamentals
Profit comes from observing the greatest potential change

put all that money into some large caps with a steady dividend

Try ABG which covers its dividend 10 times over from mining gold.
POG is 2.5% yield



Mostly I own gold miners which are an investment and which trade gold every day to a profit at these high price to cost ratios. Just got europes biggest miner with 18m ounces, set to be in Greece starting 2012
Today dollar is stronger and gold miners are yet again down but the price is dam high from years of gains, so very profitable companies

CNR on trend, was comparing reserves last night and 14p is a reasonable target I reckon





Books for trading not investing might be the naked trader one as its simple or if you are used to more weighty economics then the best one person I know of is - http://www.technicalanalysisbook.com/




A normal chart is close price only, which misses most of the trading!

 

[gizmoy2k]

So who bought Thomas cook at 10p ??

Didnt myself no spare funds, glad to see CNR holding its own in anticipation and Orogen got a good boost today hopefully on news soon

RRL is just depressing to watch in my ISA, no matter what they do the price falls

 

[Kobi]

Haha yeah, i remember the days of RRL. Forums were alight with RRL talk, everyone excited...now...we just have to sit and wait to even hope to get some money back(well for me atleast). Our day will come.

 

[fendi]

ORE was up 15%% today. Any idea of when news is due from within the mine?

 

[Oh Ed not again.]

ORE was up 15%% today. Any idea of when news is due from within the mine?

Personally I think today's rise was a total misnomer. It's dropped for the last 2 weeks from 0.8, then it rises back to similar levels. Typical AIM share performance tbh.

 

[Panda]

Anyone getting dizzy with the constant roller coaster

Hopefully more good CNR news soon to come, try and keep some of the momentum going....

 

[Firestar_3x]

Has anyone got access to Investors Chronicle articles? If so i wouldn't mind having a look at one

 

[silversurfer]

Theres nothing gone wrong with RRL that wasnt already there in January. Just the normal tides of these shares to move the prices like this I think

If anything it has improved its reserves? Dont think they issued a ton of shares this year, should probably check that first

CNR still on same track since August, buy 7 sell 8 roughly though I'd rather a nice spike to 10.
Petra diamonds spiked up today, its +40% in the last week and I was lucky to buy some at 100, not sure if I should have sold today but unfortunately I already sold a bit late last week opps Goldman say its due 200p probably right

[on 8th Dec PDL will go from AIM to being a proper share
Many pension funds etc arent allowed aim shares so maybe this means they get a nice money inflow to the stock price? Check back in a month I guess]

 

[Simon]

Bit of a weak start to the week, but I'm looking to put a bit more away.

What are peoples thoughts on this Xmas rally people talk of?

Thanks

 

[silversurfer]

Santa never comes when you still awake. A bit too much expectation of it this year, when that happens it often implies its already factored in the price

Still about now would be when it starts, didnt we have dubai pretty close one xmas and it still tailed up at year end but dubai is tiny


Hyder who are in Dubai I'm holding onto for 24 hrs or so in hope we go up.
Euro Goldfields I will sell after its gone up like 40% for me, keep a tiny bit back, I should probably hold this also as they produce next year ? Need the cashflow though


Condor was up 10% for 5 mins this morning, I sold some at 8p. Theres your rally Its at the top of its (upward) range so its expected, no big spike up just steady eddy so its all good


Dollar taken a nasty turn up and euro down and gold down. Needs to correct this mistake itself quick..

 

[Simon]

Damn missed the CNR 8p this morning. Would have been a nice exit

 

[Oh Ed not again.]

CNR will rise again, I'm sure of that. Particularly as the end of year hype ramps up.

ORE however is starting to disappoint again, been walked down over the last 3-4 weeks to stupidly low levels. Need some news on that one, but disappointingly the BOD appear to be holding back.

 

[silversurfer]

CNR is still more positive then RRL and I had expected much more of Range by now

CNR has such a large spread for me that I didnt sell much. I had to sell that Hyder as it goes ex-div soon and my share account is messed up so cant really dump EGU now

That might be good, hopefully EGU doubles or something. I want to transfer shares, anyone know a good deal. I know selftrade used to do one, cant see it now and JPJ looking cheapest. hmm :/

Euro Deepens Sell-off S&P to decide on Ezone downgrades in coming days; German WPI lower; Swiss employment higher; Italy sells 1 year bill with lower yield; French auction later today. The US session brings federal budget deficit data. See out extensive Premium piece on the CHF & one way to exploit franc weakness ahead of Thursdays quarterly SNB meeting.

Relatively tight ranges seen during the Asian session were broken when London traders got to their desks and started to buy the greenback. The USD is higher across the board and European equities are losing slightly less than 1%.

It seems that Friday's EU summit with its new treaty was quickly forgotten as traders continue to sell the common currency.


S&P head in France Carol Sirou said that the S&P will decide whether to downgrade Eurozone countries in coming days so it is reasonable to assume that as long as the rating downgrade looms the willingness to open long Euro positions will be slim.

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=2972

Good vol on CNR I think it seems positive

 

[mr tommo]

Tasty little piece in the Independant

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/exxon-woos-gkp-to-gain-kurdish-base-6278531.html

Exxon woos GKP to gain Kurdish base

US oil supermajor Exxon Mobil is understood to have sounded out London-listed Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) over a possible deal that could value the Kurdistan-focused group at around £7bn.

GKP has a market capitalisation of around £1.5bn and is listed on the junior Aim market, but its chief executive, Todd Kozel, believes the group could eventually go for double-figure billions. GKP is sitting on what is considered to be one of the world's great recent oil finds – Shaikan, about 50 miles north-west of Kurdistan's capital, Erbil – but the regional government is known to want a supermajor on board to properly fund and develop the field.

It is thought that the board would not accept the estimated £8-a-share that Exxon is considering and that a number of other companies, perhaps including China's Sinopec and Californian giant Chevron, are monitoring the situation. There is even some speculation that an informal four-way auction for GKP might be under way, while it is also believed that the company has spoken to at least two smaller businesses about potentially developing its assets in a joint venture.

Last month, it emerged that Exxon was the first of the oil industry's giants to enter Kurdistan, taking six licences. However, this has angered the government in Baghdad because there are old territorial disputes between Iraq and Kurdistan.

Baghdad had threatened to terminate Exxon's existing deal in southern Iraq and it had been reported that the US giant might reconsider its licences in Kurdistan. However, the lucrative potential of the Kurdistan fields means that analysts expect Exxon will pursue opportunities in the semi-autonomous region and may already have taken additional positions to those licences previously revealed.

There are suggestions that Exxon's interest in GKP was discussed at a board meeting 10 days ago and that initial soundings may have been taken at least six weeks ago. Last month, much of the oil world descended on Erbil for a conference that highlighted the extraordinary oil opportunities in Kurdistan, with Mr Kozel one of the key speakers.

It is believed that Mr Kozel would be happy to sell up soon and has even started mulling over his next venture. The American businessman is one of the most colourful figures in the City and has a base of devoted retail investors who are waiting for a takeover of GKP to make them rich.

GKP declined to comment. Exxon did not return calls.

I know the true value is a lot more than £8 so it should rightly be rejected if true. But, I've got to admit a 500% profit would make a huge difference to my life. I could pay off half of my mortgage at 24

I don't really know how to feel about that! Of course if the bidding war does commence at least we now have a minimum amount that we could end up walking away. That makes me very warm inside!

 

[Adam]

I'd be looking at a 800% profit but I don't have a sign infant amount invested here, at the time a house was the better option

 

[aardvark]

Tasty little piece in the Independant

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/exxon-woos-gkp-to-gain-kurdish-base-6278531.html



I know the true value is a lot more than £8 so it should rightly be rejected if true. But, I've got to admit a 500% profit would make a huge difference to my life. I could pay off half of my mortgage at 24

I don't really know how to feel about that! Of course if the bidding war does commence at least we now have a minimum amount that we could end up walking away. That makes me very warm inside!

i would be pretty annoyed with only £8 - i'm looking for double that.

 

[silversurfer]

^^ lol Im literally choking on my tea on that one. I hope your right, though I dont own any GKP now
But it'd knock onto other Kurd drillers which I do have

Its amazing the movements possible in share capital from a working company from zero worth for like Thomas Cook and their debts to these oilers which are gigantic in their possible excess profits.
The reason 8 or 16 would be a surprise to me is GKP will have some debts and costs to them, infrastructure, etc.
Bidding wars speed up the whole process because the bidder will cover the costs I guess but I'd expect more like 3 or 4 quid, because if they have to payout the total worth of the project over 20 years they'd not bother

I dont have time or the money to wait so my general strategy is to play the game and sell high buy back low again while we wait for the endgame which seems to be taking forever.
Endgame to me is the inevitable rise of oil to 200 dollars due to currency weakness and government stupidity on debt, etc political nonsense Also that involves government and leaders falling now
Hence I sold at £1.90 'only'

at the time a house was the better option

Different categories of risk vs cost vs returns. Whole books written on that conundrum, I'd advocate fixing mortgage rates (which costs even more) now but lots disagree


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...58071/Gold-bullion-could-easily-hit-2000.html


EGU peaked just as I commented on it. Nice to be right, pity I didnt short it. Hope someone bids on it soon!
Also PDL peaked, might take one of these two as a top up and hold for next month maybe

Gold price broken down but Im still expecting strength vs dollars or sterling. CNR fell badly from its 8p sell high, its outside the bullish range now. Not quite broken but teetering!

RAnge is on a steady course downwards, its failed to catch the multi year trend up and 6.7p is next scheduled stop (Highs of 2010)
If that fails, look back at 2010 for when it was good to buy and sell as it may have completely reset and require a rebuild before any rise

 

[Simon]

So no £8 at open tomorrow ?

 

[ScottehBotteh]

3 or 4 quid for Gkp No.

800p is nowhere near enough for true value of all 4 blocks.

Ber Bahr already has oil shows, TD should be in January...and its expected to be Shaikans bigger brother, that is if they are not one and the same.

 

[TNGL]

Could somebody please recommend me a book for a complete and utter newbie in trading the stockmarket? Thanks.