Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

ScottehBotteh · 18 Dec 2011 at 16:59

Naked Trader is a good start, started off like most of us small time punters.

TNGL · 18 Dec 2011 at 17:45

ScottehBotteh said:
Naked Trader is a good start, started off like most of us small time punters.

Okay, thanks

silversurfer · 18 Dec 2011 at 17:53

NT appears to be leaving the scene. That guys skill is knowing when to sell and I think he got a bit scared when losing money to MF global collapse.
He'll get it back eventually but he cant have helped notice the game changed.
Volatility is the biggest bull market of all right now

800p is nowhere near enough for true value of all 4 blocks.

I agree but the company buying them out is doing it to make a profit right. So I'd expect similar to the EGU buyout rumour mill. So with EGU its receiving heavy funding and also equity dilution of current shareholders

AIM companies get diluted all the time, I think its basically the high cost of debt.
How much is CNR worth, 10 quid a share? if we had the ability to fast forward ten years to a full working mine and a gold price that doubled and ignore the cost of getting there (plus interest on debt). If they are bought out I expect far less because the people buying are doing so to capture that final value and pay us off with a much lower value based on current (often very dire) circumstance.
Ultimately the people buying I think make more money then us as original owners because they will be closer to the most profitable stage of production and also I think oil and gold prices will be higher.

RISK premium at the moment has stock values pretty darn low. That applies to AIM also I guess so again the guys selling the oil at full flow will make the solid profits and Im not sure competition for risk (non production assets) is that high to push out £8 a share right now

I dont doubt you are right on the eventual potential but who captures that

I havent studied GKP so I dont know just my guess. In my estimate Iraq is the worlds largest oil country, officially they arent now but it will be and GKP is part of that.
If the people can stop killing each other, every single citizen of that country could be rich like Qatar, etc I reckon (Iraq actually has less people per sq. mile)

Gulf Keystone is on the rise, some bid rumours but the price doesn't seem to indicate there will be one. Still, you never know! I'm unsure on the Afren trade. In a nice profit but it keeps running out of steam in the 90s so temptation is there to cash that one in too. Yule Catto has done nicely.

I think in summary with the above momentum trades I suspect I'll be out of all those and bank the profits before leaving for South Africa on Xmas day! (Or even in the next five minutes...)

mr tommo · 18 Dec 2011 at 23:20

Silversurfer perhaps you could help me to understand something. Lets say for example a bid of the equivalent of £5 is accepted for shaikan. What happens to me as a share holder at 163p?

Simon · 18 Dec 2011 at 23:33

You get 500p a share

mr tommo · 18 Dec 2011 at 23:49

As in the sp would gap up to 500p and I'd still own all my shares in gkp and their other assets?

As I understand a total takeover I would get offered 500p a share and receive a lump sum, but don't understand the procedure for an asset sale.

ScottehBotteh · 19 Dec 2011 at 09:05

If only Shaikan was sold you would not get a guaranteed 500p for your shares. The price would rise on an asset sale but GKP will reinvest the money to develop the other assets. Dont expect any special dividends.

High of +30% today on GKP, dropped off but broken that all time high resistance. Hopefully close above 203p.

mr tommo · 19 Dec 2011 at 11:10

Ok cheers glad that's cleared up

Looking strong today, was expecting it to drop back down after the early morning rise but looks to be on the up again. Think it went to 201p a couple of weeks ago following a similar rumour then dropped back down to 170p range again.

Now if only RRL would get its act together. a lot of talk that once the options are out of the way this will improve but I can't see how it makes sense that the sp has been purposely pushed down week after week to where we are today. My average of 11.75p isn't looking to healthy at the moment

I understand that the company want more ii's on board so it could be a case of flushing the Pi's out. PMUR came on board months ago now as a new broker and the SP has just constantly dropped and dropped and their broker note was delayed until only a week ago. Then when it finally did arrive it was something that could have been prepared in an afternoon!

Wish I had the funds to top up at 6ish pence but not losing any GKP shares for anything.

silversurfer · 19 Dec 2011 at 15:53

A cash sale of assets would be great Mr Tommo even for other companies it helps put a value on their assets. Rumours gave GKP up 20% and HOIL was up 5% in sympathy

I have this morning an actual bid for my goldfields greek mine and it's likely to clear and lucky me the share price has dropped. Isnt that absolutely bloody brilliant lol

Heres the company that has bought them, http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ego&ql=1

EGO shares tanked 11% on open. Some dam complicated reason but EGO is buying EGU with 0.85 share swap
So now what happens is I have to hope Eldorado is a great company and the share price goes back up then in turn my shares are worth more

I can hope for a bidding war, Feb to clear. Basically I have to hold to gain that 'final value', last Monday I should have sold it and my chart said as much

Financial News: Banks Turn To Gold For Liquidity Boost

By Matt Attwood
Of FINANCIAL NEWS

Senior bankers are lobbying regulators to include gold in new rules designed to help European banks overcome the difficulties they face in funding their liabilities.

The liquidity coverage ratio, a component of the Basel III accord, which comes into force in 2015, will oblige banks to hold reserves of the highest-quality assets that they can easily convert into cash. These should be low risk and easy to value even in times of market stress.

The rules, in their current form, rely heavily on European sovereign bonds. The present volatility in the market has shown that these assets are not always easy to sell.

Banks are therefore asking for a wider range of assets - among them gold - to be included in the rules.

Michael Anderson, group head of asset-liability management at HSBC, said: "We've had ample evidence of a lack of liquidity in debt issued by some sovereigns recently, so this is hopefully a good time to persuade the regulators to give some ground.

"It's very difficult to predict the future from historical patterns but there is nevertheless plenty of evidence to support the view that gold has historically tended to be counter-cyclical."

Such calls come at a time when central bankers are rediscovering the virtues of gold. According to the World Gold Council, the official sector became a net buyer of gold in 2010 for the first time in 21 years, and has continued to make net purchases throughout 2011.

Under the Basel rules, 60% of banks' liquidity pools must be in the form of Level-1 assets: top-rated sovereign bonds, cash or central bank reserves.

The rest of the liquidity pool can be made up of Level-2 assets, which currently comprise riskier sovereign debt and covered or corporate bonds rated double-A or higher.

Some bankers believe that, given the problems besetting eurozone sovereign debt, the Level-1 component should be cut to around 50% and gold should be admitted to the Level-2 category.

One European head of debt capital markets said he believed bank treasurers were already facing difficult questions from shareholders: "If I was at a bank I'd be hard-pressed to explain why we couldn't use gold as part of a liquidity pool. In a distressed market it's the one asset that's both liquid and likely to go up in price."

HSBC commodities analyst James Steel said that gold tends to perform well in times of crisis and does not suffer the volatility afflicting other asset classes. But he noted that the picture is muddied by gold's positive correlation with the euro: "Had the same crisis occurred in the US, gold would be significantly higher. It has complicated everything for gold analysts this year."

Andreas Böger, co-head of capital solutions at Deutsche Bank, said: "In the new world it will still have to prove that it is really counter-cyclical. But generally I think it should be treated as a liquid asset."

December 18, 2011 19:01 ET (00:01 GMT)

Gold price appears to be crap now but it has kept above the highs of Jan to June.
Banks are lending out their gold reserves to get dollars due to EURO crisis its made them desperate for money (or liquidity)
^^Read this article and I think it helps solidify why gold fundamentals are improving

Anyway on GKP I have it hitting a previous uptrend. Not seeing a breakout just yet. So similar to start of Sept, Nov but at least its higher each time
Downside to keep would be 170 and Nov low was a good one

I bought PDL as its still within a bullish scenario and I dont see it has sold down on much volume so should more easily rise back if the market was in favour of this at all

Ev0 · 19 Dec 2011 at 16:20

So did anyone sell and rebuy GKP to net a few 'free' shares/bank some profit?

mr tommo · 19 Dec 2011 at 16:25

Held throughout unfortunately

Hindsight eh...

Simon · 19 Dec 2011 at 16:29

Ev0 said:
So did anyone sell and rebuy GKP to net a few 'free' shares/bank some profit?

No - As usual I did it the wrong way round.

Dunks · 19 Dec 2011 at 16:29

What a joke, quite why it took them so long to quash the rumours I'll never know.

Ev0 · 19 Dec 2011 at 16:29

If I was holding then I think it'd have depended on how much I had I think, if it was a sizable amount then a 30% increase on Friday's price would have been hard to not take.

But I'm not so who knows what I would have done, but have done similar in other shares before.

Just thinking about a rebuy of RRL and when might be best, if at all.

Not easy though, on the one hand you want to hold on for the big rises, but on the other you need to/should bank profit

Simon · 19 Dec 2011 at 16:32

Yeah and the newspaper report made it sound like a big rise would be on the way.

Ev0 · 19 Dec 2011 at 16:35

One thing I've learnt is never trust the papers

I'd be an even poorer man if I did!

Least the RNS just says the company is not for sale, doesn't mention anything about selling off bits of the company...

mr tommo · 19 Dec 2011 at 17:12

Yes it specifically stated that they were not in negotiations for a sale of the company so that doesn't rule out Shaikan sale.

The good thing is though, if you did buy on todays spike, then its not that long before your losses are going to be recovered with some of the drilling results everyone is waiting for. Especially if this O&G draft is submitted soon.

I do think the whole thing stinks though. They let the rumour run until 15 mins before close when it could have been quashed before the open this morning. Apparently 34 seperate articles were in circulation on sunday night after the story in the independant in the morning. So quite why a 7-8am RNS wasn't released leaves a sour taste in my mouth.

Oh well, I'm happy to sit it out until next summer and hope the sp is in a far better place

nightrider1470 · 19 Dec 2011 at 17:12

Sad times to be honest

silversurfer · 20 Dec 2011 at 15:37

If I was cocky enough I could have said 220 area for GKP as a top but obviously takes a bit of guts to stand in front of a speeding train and call a stop to it

I didnt hold any or short it or buy it on the lows of the day (you need to recognise the mood in play).
170 area seems to have proved positive for it so far though, Ive spread myself too thin already to be holding things that might possibly half though (or double)

This 2012 contest with prize! is open. Think I'll put down Lloyds as one of my picks for next year, it really is gloomy and the CEO is coming back and he is a good guy I reckon.
http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/

The market is showing some irrational exuberance right now.
As always it needs to push on for that to be anything but fleeting, if 1231 SP500 is the top for the day (upto 9pm that is) then forget I said anything but this could be start of that xmas rally that sometimes occurs

Sold some PMG but hoping that it will go to 20p. It has about 5p in assets I think and a very good CEO Tom Cross

My best stock of this year has been Plexus. A dark horse http://www.posgrip.com/flash/Jasmine_HG.html

Worst stock of the year, Sunkar Resources.
Just had some of my positions marked to zero. Fat lady aint singing quite yet but shes in the wings.
They are a miner, but not oil and not gold. So they suffered like everyone else but basically died from lack of interest, no cash no business even if you have millions of assets in the ground proven and waiting

Sad times to be honest

Its normal, the market always teases and wears you down till you give up or foolishly believe its all for real

Markets are more volatile then ever before, we are just going to get more and more of this I reckon. How many dictators fell out this year. That has never happened, we live in interesting times.
Next progression will be, the larger usually more stable regimes to fall or drastically alter

Yeah and the newspaper report made it sound like a big rise would be on the way.

Newspapers can really only report what has already happened. Another mind game

Just bought some more Cadogan . Interesting story behind them, 19p cash 26p to buy? no good reason to fall beyond the normal instability of AIM :confused:

http://i.imgur.com/3csyM.png

silversurfer · 21 Dec 2011 at 16:51

More Kurdiraq stuff and Petra up some

Other popular stock exchange statements included Genel Energy’s (LON:GENL) confirmation that it is in discussions with Longford Energy over the acquisition of an additional 40 percent stake in the Chia Surkh oilfield in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq.

Genel added there can be “no certainty these discussions will result in a transaction and we will update the market in due course when we have greater clarity.”

The group, which is led by chief executive Tony Heyward, currently holds a 20 percent interest in the field, which hosts a prospective resource of 305.7 million barrels of oil equivalent.

Sky News reported that the deal could be worth “tens of millions of pounds” and could be announced before Christmas.

Petra Diamonds (LONDL) also garnered attention today, which is the first day of trading in its shares on the main market of the London Stock Exchange. The diamond firm also announced that it has sold a 4.8 carat blue diamond at its most recent tender in December for US$1.45 million, translating into US$300,000 per carat.

The news lifted Petra’s share price by 3 percent to trade at 113.5 pence in early deals as this was the highest price per carat achieved for any diamond that it has ever sold. Petra added that this could be one of the highest values per carat ever achieved on the sale of a rough diamond by any producer.

“(The Cullinan mine) is renowned as the world's only reliable source of blue diamonds and this sale demonstrates how rare and desirable they are to the international market,” said Petra.

Market losing nice positive gains from yesterday. It hasnt broke the Dollar trend of last couple months so not much chance of positive markets till that occurs, I'll say if I think its cleared that bar

FT said:
Here's Citi
BE
London-Toronto Valuation Discrepancy — Given this press speculation, it is an
appropriate time to look at the valuation of UK-listed gold miners vs. Toronto-listed gold miners. In our sample of the key 21 Toronto-listed gold producers we find that the average market capitalisation per reserve ounce is US$959/oz whereas for UK golds it is US$322/oz. When using total resource-ounces the Toronto average is US$358/oz against the UK average of US$144/oz.
BE
UK Gold Could be Attractive to Toronto Groups — The data explains why the
Toronto-listed gold companies may find UK-listed gold quite appealing. It has to be acknowledged that UK gold miners are very specifically country-focused while many of the Toronto-listed groups are active across the globe. This justifies some of the discrepancy, but not all of it, in our view.

Euro energy markets vs USSR