Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[ICDP]

A video of a tank being destroyed today, its actually amazing to watch how high the barrel / turret gets blown into the air.

If it is the video I am thinking of, then it was a controlled explosion of an abandoned Russian tank. So it was not actual combat footage.

 

[dowie]

This is worrying:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...n-beat-le-pen-le-pen-gains-ground-2022-04-06/

PARIS, April 6 (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron would beat Marine Le Pen in the country's presidential election later this month, though Le Pen has gained ground in recent weeks, showed an Ipsos Sopra Steria Cevipof poll for Le Monde newspaper.

As much as I dislike him and think Macron has been a total clown so far Le Pen would be a total disaster right now I hope Macron doesn't face an upset in this election.

Also a good opinion piece in the NYT on Germany's hypocrisy, thanks mostly to that other European clown Merkel, now only has she been a huge catalyst for several years of migrants flooding to Europe but she's been responsible for the current situation Germany has found itself in with respect to Russia and it's reliance on them for energy.

As some readers may remember, early last decade much of southern Europe faced a crisis as lending dried up, sending interest rates on government debt soaring. German officials were quick to blame these countries for their own plight, insisting, with much moralizing, that they were in trouble because they had been fiscally irresponsible and now needed to pay the price.

As it turns out, this diagnosis was mostly wrong. Much of the surge in southern European interest rates reflected a market panic rather than fundamentals; borrowing costs plunged, even for Greece, after the president of the European Central Bank said three words — “whatever it takes” — suggesting that the bank would, if necessary, step in to buy the debt of troubled economies.

Yet Germany took the lead in demanding that debtor nations impose extreme austerity measures, especially spending cuts, no matter how large the economic costs. And those costs were immense: Between 2009 and 2013 the Greek economy shrank by 21 percent while the unemployment rate rose to 27 percent.

But while Germany was willing to impose economic and social catastrophe on countries it claimed had been irresponsible in their borrowing, it has been unwilling to impose far smaller costs on itself despite the undeniable irresponsibility of its past energy policies.

I’m not sure how to quantify this, but my sense is that Germany received far more and clearer warning about its feckless reliance on Russian gas than Greece ever did about its pre-crisis borrowing. Yet it seems as if Germany’s famous eagerness to treat economic policy as a morality play applies only to other countries.

 

[bris]

They don't care. The west are already doing as much as they are willing to do, and Putin believes this is a price worth paying. He knows the west won't militarily intervene.

Well TBH the west is really responsible for the devestation russian forces have taken. The west has supplied the weapons used to great effect.

We don't have boots on the ground but without the west we have to assume this war would already be over. Ukrain would have ran out of resources a long time ago. I just hope the germans get theitr bloody act together and stop pussy footing about.

Once again they are slow to deliver the aid they promised.

 

[Turn]

*Germany Also Intends to Provide up to 100 Billion Euros in Liquidity Credits to Companies Hit by Sudden Energy Price Increases, According to a Ministry Document.
*WHO says it has trained almost 1,500 health workers to respond to any chemical incident in Ukraine, also providing PPE
*Russian Rouble Extends Gains, Hits 79 vs Euro on Moscow Exchange for First Time Since Late June 2020.

*China’s Premier Li: China’s Economy Faces Greater Uncertainties and Challenges — State Media
*China’s Premier Li: China Should Step Up Policy Measures in Timely Way — State Media
*China’s Premier Li: Will Keep Yuan Exchange Rate Basically Stable — State Media
*China’s Premier Li: Will Study New Contingency Plans to Support Economy — State Media

*Governor of Ukraine’s Donetsk Region: Death Toll From Kramatorsk Rail Strike Rises to 39

*Governor of Ukraine’s Donetsk Region: Casualty Estimates From Rail Strike Are Preliminary.
*Governor of Ukraine’s Donetsk Region: Russian Forces Targeted Rail Station to Prevent Civilians Evacuating.
*Governor of Ukraine’s Donetsk Region: Evacuations Happening From All Front Line Towns.
*Governor of Ukraine’s Donetsk Region: It Has Not Been Possible to Get Any Humanitarian Aid to Mariupol.
*Governor of Ukraine’s Donetsk Region Says Russian Forces Fired Cluster Munitions at Kramatorsk Rail Station

*Slovakia Sent S-300 Air-Defence System to Ukraine — Government Office — RTRS
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-p...-air-defense-system-to-ukraine-prime-minister

 

[Hades]

Well TBH the west is really responsible for the devestation russian forces have taken. The west has supplied the weapons used to great effect.

We don't have boots on the ground but without the west we have to assume this war would already be over. Ukrain would have ran out of resources a long time ago. I just hope the germans get theitr bloody act together and stop pussy footing about.

Once again they are slow to deliver the aid they promised.

The West also supplied training before the invasion (particularly the UK) and intelligence (I'm guessing teh US are helping a lot here with satellite imagary).

 

[arknor]

I would not like to see what happens to people inside the tank when that happens

I'd imagine the same force that pushes the turret out and makes it pop like a champagne cork compresses everything on the inside into spagheti bolognese.

how many tons of pressure do you think it takes to pop a turret 50+ feet into the air?

 

[Zeeflyboy]

Russia has built up, then drawn down multiple times over the last ~7 years which has made people in nearby Ukraine somewhat numb to it, then the Ukrainian government was downplaying it a lot (largely due to the economic consequences) in the build up to this invasion - only those who were glued to OSINT or government level would really have known how heightened the risk was.

Even then though there was definitely an increasing reality which should have been apparent to any casual observer but a lot just won't allow or believe something like this would or could happen in this day and age until it does - almost like to allow such thing is possible makes it more likely to happen and sticking head in sand makes it less likely...

Ultimately, it was pragmatism… they decided they had no choice but to continue as normal for fear of the worse result that the panic would have caused.

Oleksiy Arestovych (presidential adviser) talks about it candidly here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/co...urce=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

As an aside from watching interviews with him elsewhere he’s also seemingly a fiercely intelligent and very switched on guy in general - eg I saw a video from him back in (I think) 2018 where they clearly knew all this was coming and he said 2020-2022 would be the time of peak danger etc. Seems like a good fit for the job of adviser!

edit - that particular video I mention of him talking about what russia would do was 2019 not 2018 - worth a watch, he knows exactly what’s going to happen with “99%” certainty and he was right https://youtu.be/DwcwGSFPqIo so the very idea that they didn’t believe it was going to happen weeks before simply doesn’t stand up. It was a choice they had to make between awful and catastrophic, nothing more.

 

[Turn]

*U.S. Decries “Horrific and Devastating Images” of Deadly Attack on Train Station in Ukraine -White House Spokesperson
*German Finance Minister Lindner: We Are Working Every Day to Tighten Sanctions Against Russia.
*German Finance Minister Lindner: Announced Plans for an Economic Shock Absorber Package to Assist Businesses in Dealing With the Fallout From Ukraine’s War.

*Russian Rouble Extends Gains, Firms to 74.03 vs Dollar on Moscow Exchange, Its Strongest Level so Far in 2022



USB/RUB via MOEX.

 

[dowie]

Macron having a normal one again today:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512366581938065412

FML I'm glad Merkel has gone but this is the best hope France has got???

And people think Boris is a clown, relatively speaking we could do far worse for leaders given some of the numpties in charge in Europe. Imagine if Corbyn had won the election - doubt Ukraine would have had any shipments of NLAWs etc.. or last-minute training from the British Army, the battle for Kyiv might well have had a different outcome.

 

[Harlequin]

Macron having a normal one again today:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512366581938065412

FML I'm glad Merkel has gone but this is the best hope France has got???

And people think Boris is a clown, relatively speaking we could do far worse for leaders given some of the numpties in charge in Europe. Imagine if Corbyn had won the election - doubt Ukraine would have had any shipments of NLAWs etc.. or last-minute training from the British Army, the battle for Kyiv might well have had a different outcome.

Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki defends 'Jewish Holocaust perpetrators' comments | World News | Sky News

The same Polish PM that said Jews were amoungst the perpetrators of the Holocaust? Also he is Christian with Jewish roots.

 

[Turn]

*Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: We Told Ukraine That Belarus Should Become a State That Provides Security Guarantees to Ukraine.


*Germany Agrees Guarantees for Companies Worth As Much As €100B
*Germany Agrees KFW Loan Program Worth As Much As €7B

*The EU Will Not Block Russian Refiners From Importing Crude Into Serbia, According to the Government.

 

[Brazo]

.

 

[ColdAsIce]

I don't want to derail the thread when we should be talking about Ukraine but the current Polish Government has set Poland back about 10-15 years in regards to peoples rights. One of those strange things in which there is clearly a silent majority that vote for them to be in power but you can barely find anyone openly admitting to it. Quite like Brexit voters...

 

[Roar87]

I don't want to derail the thread when we should be talking about Ukraine but the current Polish Government has set Poland back about 10-15 years in regards to peoples rights. One of those strange things in which there is clearly a silent majority that vote for them to be in power but you can barely find anyone openly admitting to it. Quite like Brexit voters...

I voted for Brexit, I'd do it again, I'd walk and vote if it were snowing or there were gale force winds.

 

[dowie]

*Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: We Told Ukraine That Belarus Should Become a State That Provides Security Guarantees to Ukraine.


*Germany Agrees Guarantees for Companies Worth As Much As €100B
*Germany Agrees KFW Loan Program Worth As Much As €7B

*The EU Will Not Block Russian Refiners From Importing Crude Into Serbia, According to the Government.

Weak of the EU as per usual, what the source for the Lavrov comment? That's hilarious!

 

[mattyg]

We don't have boots on the ground

Thats not entirely Accurate.
But officially, your correct

 

[DrToffnar]

I don't want to derail the thread when we should be talking about Ukraine but the current Polish Government has set Poland back about 10-15 years in regards to peoples rights.

It's difficult. There can be no doubt that Poland's response to this whole situation has been largely admirable on almost all fronts, but it's still difficult for me to disregard the past and present politics of the L&J party.

 

[Turn]

what the source for the Lavrov comment? That's hilarious!

Interfax - https://www.interfax.ru/russia/833925

Spoiler: 'Russia proposes Belarus as a guarantor of Ukraine's security' — Interfax (Article Translated)

(Translation from Russian using Google Translate)

*London Platinum and Palladium Market: Suspends Russian Refineries From Its Good Delivery Lists
*Russian Dep. Energy Minister Sorokin: Russia Prioritises Stable Oil and Gas Supplies.

 

[ColdAsIce]

It's difficult. There can be no doubt that Poland's response to this whole situation has been largely admirable on almost all fronts, but it's still difficult for me to disregard the past and present politics of the L&J party.

Agreed.

 

[DrToffnar]

Weak of the EU as per usual, what the source for the Lavrov comment? That's hilarious!

As bizzare as it sounds it's a pill that will probably have to be swallowed. It throws a largely inconsequential bone to the Kremlin and it levels out any perceived threat from more of the West leaning countries most likely being proposed from the Ukrainian side. I'd imagine most of the countries requested by the latter would be equally bias, just towards the other side...