Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[dowie]

Finally, some Tanks are being supplied too:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1513651655430049801

To be fair the Czechs supplied a dozen too, good to see the Poles supplying them too and some positive-sounding messaging re: the MiGs too, Slovakia is keen IF the US can provide air defence for it in the meantime, Poland might follow with their MiGs if that happens - I guess it's down to the Biden admin to kinda underwrite/sign it off though.

 

[Minusorange]

That's a BMP not a T-72 though, just because it has tracks doesn't automatically make it a tank

 

[Grim5]

That's a BMP not a T-72 though, just because it has tracks doesn't automatically make it a tank

coreect what's on that truck is not a t-72 but Poland has sent a 100 t-72s

 

[Turn]

*Yomiuri Shimbun: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida Is Coordinating Visits To Some Asian And European Countries From The End Of April To Early May. The List Has Not Yet Been Determined
*Japan's Minister Of Economy, Trade And Industry Koichi Hagiita: The Ban On Importing Certain Types Of Wood, Some Machinery And Alcohol From Russia Will Take Effect On April 19

 

[Washout]

Would be such poor timing on part of the Russians to mount a chemical attack now. If the supposed new push for the East is still a while away, why give NATO the excuse to pump heavier materials into the country before its ready?

I’m guessing Mariupol is a nightmare for all sides with horrendous losses for every street taken. Wouldn’t put it past them to do it to get those last defenders hidden underground. I think these things work their way down into tunnels etc

 

[StriderX]

Does Ukraine even have many trained pilots anymore? I'm sure there are some due to planes being destroyed on the ground and possibly some survivors from air engagements/AA, but it couldn't be a large number so where do Ukraine intend on finding pilots that know how to fly fighter jets?

I'm sure civilian pilots could be of some use though clearly no match for the thousands of hours of flight time in frames that their dedicated air force would have had, these people will eventually run out as well so any potential use for further planes essentially boils down to using them as suicidal missiles against vastly bigger targets like ships, staging grounds or strategically important infrastructure in occupied territories/Russia itself.

If we do end up giving them some mothballed F15, F16 or A10's then I would assume that would be after they've expended the vast majority of their trained pilots and so the purpose of such aid would be rather disturbing unless the war drags on for enough time that legitimate training of new pilots can occur.

 

[NickK]

MiGs could be back on the table now:

Well at last we have some rhetoric. Russia points at everyone and everyone points at russia.

 

[Grim5]

If one thing this war has shown is that the future backbone of any major military airforce needs to be swarms of missle and bomb carrying drones. This idea of needing jets and human pilots is old school and has shown to be severely ineffective in a modern battle

 

[NickK]

Does Ukraine even have many trained pilots anymore? I'm sure there are some due to planes being destroyed on the ground and possibly some survivors from air engagements/AA, but it couldn't be a large number so where do Ukraine intend on finding pilots that know how to fly fighter jets?

That is the concern. This is almost where drones are a massive opportunity. Not as complex and easier to fly. The issue is that drones can't do what a pilot in a winged tin can can do. Unless a fighter drone is on the books.

 

[Rroff]

Does Ukraine even have many trained pilots anymore? I'm sure planes that were destroyed on the ground and possibly some survivors from air engagements/AA, but surely it couldn't be a large number so where do Ukraine intend on finding pilots that know how to fly fighter jets?

Hard to find numbers but at the start of the war apparently they had ~700 combat trained pilots (some of them probably never flown anything beyond trainer jets though) of which ~100-120 were trained on stuff like the Mig 29s, but only around 20 or so had any real hours of combat training on them. Out of those numbers they've lost ~20 pilots, no idea where they fit into those numbers, since the start of the war.

 

[godinman]

I'm at the stage now where I think I'd support a peacekeeping force holding the west of Ukraine, say from the Belarus/Russian boarder down to the coast near Moldova. If nothing else it would free up lots of the Ukrainian army to bolster the eastern defense.

 

[Grim5]

That is the concern. This is almost where drones are a massive opportunity. Not as complex and easier to fly. The issue is that drones can't do what a pilot in a winged tin can can do. Unless a fighter drone is on the books.

But remember a fighter jet is only so agile and swift because it needs to fight other jets, a drone does not need or care about that - its target is to deliver a bomb to point A, B and C

jets do have their uses and they will not be completely removed from the operating theatre and eventually they will operate without a human - actually I'm very surprised jets don't already operate autonomously as the technology is already there, we are sending 50 story spaceships to dock with the ISS and land on the moon using only its computer AI but we can't fly a small fighter jet with it?

 

[StriderX]

If it's confirmed that chemical weapons are being used then I would hope that was enough justification to cut off Transnistria from Russia forever by moving forces into secure any Oblast currently not under ground assault which would include Odessa.

They might still take the Donbass and much of the low-lying area north of Crimea but ending the goal of retaking Bessarabia/creating Novorossiya would infuriate Putin and his allies whilst allowing Ukraine to focus elsewhere or on eventual recovery without the threat of losing it's last remaining port.

 

[Grim5]

If it's confirmed that chemical weapons are being used then I would hope that was enough justification to cut off Transnistria from Russia forever by moving forces into secure any Oblast currently not under ground assault which would include Odessa.

They might still take the Donbass and much of the low-lying are north of Crimea but ending the goal of retaking Bessarabia/creating Novorossiya would infuriate Putin and his allies whilst allowing Ukraine to focus elsewhere or on eventual recovery without the threat of losing it's last remaining port.

I do not belive a small scale attack would trigger a response; what was it, 3 Ukrainian soldiers possibly affected? If Russia drops a chemical weapon on a civilian train station and kills a few hundred - now thats can trigger a response

 

[Hagar]

May I repurpose and reuse an old Radio 4 joke from 'clue' by Stephen Fry.

Countryside; to murder Putin.

-(it was originally aimed at Piers Morgan)

 

[Rroff]

If one thing this war has shown is that the future backbone of any major military airforce needs to be swarms of missle and bomb carrying drones. This idea of needing jets and human pilots is old school and has shown to be severely ineffective in a modern battle

IMO drones have shifted the paradigm currently because there hasn't been a wide appreciation of what they can bring to the battlefield, a lack of preparedness to counter them, etc. unless there isn't a mental shift to take them into account I think in the longer run they'll have a fairly narrow window where they had a dramatic impact on the battlefield.

I can't see why the small to medium sized ones can't be dealt with via semi-automated mini air-defences which can easily be miniaturised and vehicle mounted with either hard-kill or jamming capabilities or both (sure some are quite resistant to jamming) - a friend of mine demonstrated years ago (his specialisation being signal processing) how to detect and track them, even at extreme range, using a variety of sensors including sound, IR, lidar, etc. even the ability sometimes to infer their position without (ever having) line of sight. Most of the small to medium ones to do anything useful have to get well within the range of small arms ammo from an automated system (never mind any kind of guided warhead).

The bigger stuff like Bayraktars can be dealt with by conventional air-defences up until you are dealing with stuff like the RQ-4s which require a higher level of sophistication.

EDIT: Just as a general illustration of my train of thought - an advanced version of something like this for instance https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6PXSTV486c

 

[Custor]

I do not belive a small scale attack would trigger a response; what was it, 3 Ukrainian soldiers possibly affected? If Russia drops a chemical weapon on a civilian train station and kills a few hundred - now thats can trigger a response

I’ll put it in the Snake Island category of ‘reporting’.

 

[NickK]

Fighter drones only need a EMP to make a non-autonomous drone a problem. The US also requires a man-in-the-loop so a jammed fighter drone or ground attack done is no use in their current legal framework. Contrast with Putin, who would happily make a drone that simple flies around autonomously that wants to kill everything.

With the Butcher assigned to Ukraine - that wording means the entire Ukraine, this will be a game of extermination and levelling of everything as his forces move. Putin's approach is to maintain weakening tactics for resupply, to use long distance attacks for identified targets both defensive and logistics.

 

[StriderX]

I could potentially see a combination of MLRS and loitering drones with the ability to interconnect with each other to increase their targeting accuracy with known profiles of enemy vehicles, then once each drone has a target they simultaneously strike.

Just keep reloading and firing until the enemy force is obliterated.

E: The issue is that (I think) the Russians can already damage the electronics of any drone that could fit in those tubes with their EW capability, so not sure about the usefulness but there's certainly value in it.

 

[Rroff]

Looks like French air force and US Army got eyes on Kaliningrad this morning from different sides, think the Swedes have something up as well but not showing on ADS-B currently.

FORTE10 been doing extensive work overnight around the Black Sea region and Moldova.

I could potentially see a combination of MLRS and loitering drones with the ability to interconnect with each other to increase their targeting accuracy with known profiles of enemy vehicles, then once each drone has a target they simultaneously strike.

Just keep reloading, firing until the enemy force is obliterated.

Someone has been playing too much Starcraft this was a common siege tank/science vessel combo tactic used by more advanced players.